NZ 1st homebuyers are ScReWeD...

**minimoke** · 03-02-2010, 04:04 PM

Originally Posted by Ptolemy

Interesting blog by Mish Shedlock on mortgage stress amongst first home buyers in Australia.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...-fools-in.html

The research is interesting. I know most of you think this couldn't happen here, my question would be why not?

Ah - good old Bernard Hickey yesterday saying Oz interest rates were rising and NZ'ers should be looking at depositing in Oz rather than NZ (with a bit of FX risk). Spot on as per usual BH - not!

A couple of differences between here an Oz. Our market wasn't fuelled by a $14 - $21,000 govt cash grant for first home owners. Nor is stamp duty part of our property valuations.

**Dr_Who** · 03-02-2010, 04:11 PM

Originally Posted by minimoke

Ah - good old Bernard Hickey yesterday saying Oz interest rates were rising and NZ'ers should be looking at depositing in Oz rather than NZ (with a bit of FX risk). Spot on as per usual BH - not!

I recall this geezer and others predicting a 30-40% drop in property prices during the financial crisis. I did the opposite and started buying during the crisis.

**Ptolemy** · 03-02-2010, 04:26 PM

Originally Posted by minimoke

Ah - good old Bernard Hickey yesterday saying Oz interest rates were rising and NZ'ers should be looking at depositing in Oz rather than NZ (with a bit of FX risk). Spot on as per usual BH - not!

And the relevance would be?

BH would be in the overall majority in picking Australian rates to rise - in fact it appears no prominent economists (not that BH is one) picked it correctly did you?

And why do you suppose the RBA left rates on hold - did you read Mish's post - it suggests why?

I would suggest the same forces are in place in NZ yet we actually have no tightening here (yet).

**fungus pudding** · 03-02-2010, 04:37 PM

Originally Posted by Ptolemy

Interesting blog by Mish Shedlock on mortgage stress amongst first home buyers in Australia.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...-fools-in.html

The research is interesting. I know most of you think this couldn't happen here, my question would be why not?

Looking at the NZ market, particularly in the bigger cities, average incomes, average house price, and average mortgages, it's not just that it might happen here - it must!

**minimoke** · 03-02-2010, 04:51 PM

Originally Posted by Ptolemy

BH would be in the overall majority in picking Australian rates to rise - in fact it appears no prominent economists (not that BH is one) picked it correctly did you?

I didn't hold a view on the Oz rates. Often better to remain silent and be thought a fool rather than open ones mouth and remove all doubt. I did however pick that housing would not drop 30% - unlike Hickey!

**minimoke** · 03-02-2010, 05:02 PM

Originally Posted by fungus pudding

Looking at the NZ market, particularly in the bigger cities, average incomes, average house price, and average mortgages, it's not just that it might happen here - it must!

I'm inclined to agree - but with a proviso.

Some peopel are still up for pain - but there is always some pain in real estate no matter the stage of a cycle.

These are the first home owner people lulled into housing by 90 - 100% mortgages on two incomes. Over the next few years they are up for having families and rising interst rates which will impact on their ability to pay. The stress will be hampered by a lack of saving ethic and a "must have now" approach to life - where they will also have maxxed out credit cards and HP's to buy flash things for their new house.

We also have yet to see a bit more stress from the "rental" market where people bought late into the surging market to have it fall away and with income stress they are going to realise that the rental market isn't as easy money as they thought. They'll be stressed because they also bought the new car or boat or overseas holiday and some will have the holiday home by the sea which isn't creating the income necessary to cover the cost of the debt.

So there will still be bargains to be had in pockets of the market - but the whole market will not be affected long term.

A big chunk of home owners are long timers who have coped with the ups and downs of economic cycles and will survive the next bout of hard times.

**neopoleII** · 03-02-2010, 06:52 PM

quote"" Our market wasn't fuelled by a $14 - $21,000 govt cash grant for first home owners""
true........ we just have housing suppliments and working for families, and numerous other benefits that get transfered to landlords who's tenants receive the benefits.
which of course keeps the price of these investments high.
not with standing the "favourable" way they are taxed.

lets see what or if the new tax reform will do to property prices.

**beacon** · 09-02-2010, 09:05 PM

Originally Posted by neopoleII

quote"" Our market wasn't fuelled by a $14 - $21,000 govt cash grant for first home owners""
true........ we just have housing suppliments and working for families, and numerous other benefits that get transfered to landlords who's tenants receive the benefits.
which of course keeps the price of these investments high.
not with standing the "favourable" way they are taxed.

lets see what or if the new tax reform will do to property prices.

Watch the rents rise now ...
Weep, if you are a renter. Weep if you are an overstretched investor. And weep if you are a tax payer, as more of your tax will go where you least wanted it to go ...

**fungus pudding** · 09-02-2010, 09:06 PM

Originally Posted by beacon

Watch the rents rise now ...
Weep, if you are a renter. Weep if you are an overstretched investor. And weep if you are a tax payer, as more of your tax will go where you least wanted it to go ...

Rents are set by supply and demand. Nothing will change.