NZ 1st homebuyers are ScReWeD...

[Valuegrowth]

[Logen Ninefingers]

How is Jarrod from KiwiBank looking with his prediction that the RBNZ would start cutting rates in February? Egg, meet face.

[Aaron]

I guess the banks will do all they can to talk up the property market, that is the main part of their business model, getting Kiwis to buy houses off each other at ever increasing levels of debt. Same as the newspapers that run the ads and the real estate agents, never a bad time to buy real estate.

Isn't the RBNZ making an announcement sometime this month? Paul (Just accept that you will be poorer) Conjob/Conway making some sort of speech.

I imagine inflation will still be well above target with the RBNZ trying to titillate the markets with promises of future cuts without getting them too excited.

While the people working for devaluing currency paying tax on every dollar earned, with no assets get poorer and find life harder, while asset owners who rely on Adrian and Paul for their outsize capital gains pay no tax on their gains and can't understand why poor people keep moaning rather than working harder.

[Logen Ninefingers]

I guess the banks will do all they can to talk up the property market, that is the main part of their business model, getting Kiwis to buy houses off each other at ever increasing levels of debt. Same as the newspapers that run the ads and the real estate agents, never a bad time to buy real estate.

Isn't the RBNZ making an announcement sometime this month? Paul (Just accept that you will be poorer) Conjob/Conway making some sort of speech.

I imagine inflation will still be well above target with the RBNZ trying to titillate the markets with promises of future cuts without getting them too excited.

While the people working for devaluing currency paying tax on every dollar earned, with no assets get poorer and find life harder, while asset owners who rely on Adrian and Paul for their outsize capital gains pay no tax on their gains and can't understand why poor people keep moaning rather than working harder.

Fair enough to 'talk it up', but when the predictions are so patently wrong then do the people concerned have any fears over the hit to their credibility?

[Aaron]

Fair enough to 'talk it up', but when the predictions are so patently wrong then do the people concerned have any fears over the hit to their credibility?

Prediction is very difficult especially when it is about the future.

We listen too much to economists, they are not scientists, economics is an arts degree. You might have more luck with a soothsayer and goose entrails.

Bank economists are cheerleaders for the property market, much like real estate agents.

Isn't the RBNZ making an announcement tomorrow? I would have thought an early rate cut from the RBNZ would have been a reasonable guess based on recent history.

[fungus pudding]

Prediction is very difficult especially when it is about the future.

.

Quite so. It's much easier to predict the past

[Logen Ninefingers]

Prediction is very difficult especially when it is about the future.

We listen too much to economists, they are not scientists, economics is an arts degree. You might have more luck with a soothsayer and goose entrails.

Bank economists are cheerleaders for the property market, much like real estate agents.

Isn't the RBNZ making an announcement tomorrow? I would have thought an early rate cut from the RBNZ would have been a reasonable guess based on recent history.

With inflation still at 4.7%? So prices still going up at a rate well outside their target band.
You think they'd go earlier than The Fed?
You're not Jarrod Kerr are you? (Joking).
Most commentators say we will see rate cuts later this year, provided that the inflation rate continues to fall - which is not a given.

[Aaron]

The headline was different in the printed paper this morning I think it said there would be price rises due to the changes.

Reading the article, it was a bit vague as to why house prices would be rising but I think it was due to an easing of the LVR ratios and the length of time it would take debt to income limits to actually be implemented.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...BM7VYXQZP2SRQ/

Another example of bank economists and the real estate funded media getting wealthy boomers salivating at more gains and FOMO millennials taking out even bigger loans. Maybe it was to offset the inflation story from yesterday.

The following quote by the RBNZ deputy governor was laughable.

RBNZ deputy governor Christian Hawkesby said yesterday it was important to have policies in place to manage boom-bust credit cycles.

The article just explained how the RBNZ drives the property market with policy. The only limiting factor for house prices appears to be how much money is available and the interest rate.

Christian is maybe unaware that it was reckless RBNZ policy over the pandemic that created the current boom and these subsequent polices are to try and put a lid on it as it becomes obvious how wrong these polices are and that trickle down economics is BS.

I assume the people at the RBNZ are stupid but maybe after creating the wealth gap they are now ensuring there will be no social mobility between classes. That would assume they are evil, I prefer stupid as it fits better with the NZ as a caring society narrative I prefer.

At the end of the day the greedy boomers and overindebted millennials (risk takers) will be saved by RBNZ created inflation (cost of living crisis) while all those that missed the boat will find life harder and harder.

I am sounding very conspiratorial this morning.

[Aaron]

Newshub with a positive spin on a subdued property market last year.

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...6f1d2aa8&ei=30

Always good to get a "record high" in the article.

[Aaron]

Construction costs to inflate less.

https://adviser.loanmarket.co.nz/mar...rce=activepipe

Mostly due to high immigration keeping a lid on labour costs.