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  1. #2841
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    Interesting article in the herald on Saturday, Mary Holm, in the herald. Not so much the article and the question asked but the statistic s that popped up in the article.

    https://maryholm.com/nz-herald-10-august-2024/

    The "Sell rental now or later?: article. The house cost to income graph is interesting. Remind the boomers they were paying 20% on their mortgage to keep the house values within 2-3 times their annual income.

    Inflation targeting happened in the early 1990s and it appears that after 2008-2009 they just stopped pretending that the system was not rigged for the already wealthy and the well off and that they have the tacit support of the RBNZ, National and Labour. Throw that at David Seymour next time he suggests less government intervention, funny that ACT have not targeted this as it seems the most egregious example of govt intervention to benefit a sector of society over the rest. Although to be fair to David that is not race based it is wealth based.

    More interesting was this.

    He notes that the Reserve Bank has forecast 2.3 per cent house price growth this year, 5.4 per cent next year, and 5.8 per cent in 2026 — while wages are forecast to grow 2.9 per cent, 3.3 per cent and 3.4 per cent in those three years. If those numbers turn out to be correct, the house price to income ratio will fall a bit this year and rise a bit in the next two years.

    These fu*king aholes are forecasting a rise in inequality that they are causing. Bring on the rate cuts we need to boost the "wealth effect" - Yeah Right.

    Next time anyone from the RBNZ or a politician of either major party expresses concern about housing affordability, I would suggest they are being insincere and if they ever have the gall to do it within reach of me, I will be inclined to give them a bunch of fives.
    Last edited by Aaron; 11-08-2024 at 10:51 AM. Reason: Yeah Right

  2. #2842
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    Not sure I understand his point exactly, I guess it is in the headline. Why interest rates and real estate are behind the growing generational divide in Australia

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-...ates/104215946

    "The downside of deregulation" is the heading of one paragraph and the charts used speak volumes. Someone better tell the Minister for deregulation that sometimes there are downsides.

    In fact the interest rate rises are increasing returns for boomers with no mortgage and savings so I am not sure where this takes us as the additional travel etc may not be helping the inflation rate to come down.

    Potentially this is a good thing as in another decade or so, enough boomers might see price stability and higher interest rates as a good option once they have sold down and purchased their Oceania retirement unit.
    Last edited by Aaron; 13-08-2024 at 10:08 AM.

  3. #2843
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    Headline this morning in the herald

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/offici...FGI7X77GMCOIE/

    Pundits are now picking further cuts to home loan rates in coming months which will bring relief for struggling Kiwis and likely breathe new life into the property market ahead of the traditional spring surge.

    Struggling Kiwis? will the rate cuts flow through to renters?

    It was a surprise rate cut apparently.

    No mention regarding the real reason for the cuts, saving jobs and helping out struggling businesses. Adrian Orr is not voted in so he does not have to pander to homeowners like the politicians does he?

    I know when rates were near zero building supplies companies were increasing their prices almost monthly, that's a good thing right?

    Lots of houses and lots of people a real vision for NZ. Same thing happening in Australia but at least the Aussies won't be asking their young people to pay for their retirement as well after being locked out of the housing market by low rates and easy money.
    Last edited by Aaron; 15-08-2024 at 07:20 AM.

  4. #2844
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    I had heard that Aussie has a capital gains tax and a housing crisis so thought a maybe a capital gains tax is not the solution.

    According to this article that may not be the case.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...4OPWB323XN6AE/

    To quote;

    But that changed in September 1999, when John Howard's government changed the way the capital gains tax was calculated. At this point the median Sydney house price was A$289,730.

    Previously investors had to pay tax on all of the capital gains an asset made, minus any gains that had been eaten away by inflation. Howard did away with the inflation adjustment, and instead halved the amount of capital gains tax investors would have to pay.

    This was one of many generous financial benefits Howard handed to his core constituency of middle class voters. The result is many of those voters' adult children now can't afford their own homes.


    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/TBl975PtAkI

  5. #2845
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    He should know
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jerom...174454770.html
    "“I mean, the real issue with housing is that we have had and are on track to continue to have not enough housing, and so it’s going to be challenging,” Powell said. “It’s hard…to zone lots that are in places where people want to live...All of the aspects of housing are more and more difficult, and you know, where are we going to get the supply? And this is not something that the Fed can really fix.”"

  6. #2846
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    He should know
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jerom...174454770.html
    "“I mean, the real issue with housing is that we have had and are on track to continue to have not enough housing, and so it’s going to be challenging,” Powell said. “It’s hard…to zone lots that are in places where people want to live...All of the aspects of housing are more and more difficult, and you know, where are we going to get the supply? And this is not something that the Fed can really fix.”"
    Is it just me or are there a few posts missing on here? a further deterioration of this site?

    Well if Jerome says it is just a supply issue who am I to argue.

    Our own Adrian Orr has said the RBNZ only plays a "bit part" in unsustainable house prices.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126...e-house-prices

    Adrian also blames inflation on the war in the Ukraine and supply chain issues.

    I guess I am wrong and there is no inverse relationship between asset prices and interest rates. If Jerome and Adrian have told us it is just a supply issue then it must just be a supply issue right?

    That or else they are fu*king idiots or even worse knowingly trying to deceive people (lying) for some reason.

  7. #2847
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    Tony Alexander foolishly suggesting not just supply but other factors affecting house prices

    https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/tony-...e-income-46244

    A lot of talk about inflation and interest rates, crazy stuff.

  8. #2848
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    "But there was a premium being paid for new builds sold by developers, too, he said. The latest estimate of the value of existing houses was $785,000 on a nationwide basis, and new builds were $827,000. For townhouses, the difference was $609,000 versus $744,000."
    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...September+2024

  9. #2849
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    "But there was a premium being paid for new builds sold by developers, too, he said. The latest estimate of the value of existing houses was $785,000 on a nationwide basis, and new builds were $827,000. For townhouses, the difference was $609,000 versus $744,000."
    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...September+2024
    Reading that article they talk about Christchurch. Christchurch obviously cheaper than Auckland and I had read that this is partly because a lot of land was opened for up for residential construction after the Chch earthquake. Demand and supply rather than interest rates. Mind you I imagine prices went up significantly in Chch while interest rates were near zero and mortgages were 2-3% same as everywhere else.

  10. #2850
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    Looks like some relief on hand for first home buyers.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/what-n...EDGFHKSEHWJTA/

    Although the article heading says;

    What ‘net zero’ migration means for New Zealanders and the economy - The Front Page

    It talks about housing and a little bit about unemployment but if Susie Nordqvist is to be believed housing and the economy are one and the same thing.

    Good to see a bit at the bottom of the article where our pro growth PM Chris Luxon working hard to get foreigners to buy houses in NZ. Great vision from our PM once again.

    Nice to know that the flood of young people leaving is being replaced with immigrants, a lot easier and cheaper than investing in the younger generations.

    I was discussing the PMs comments about the ANZ bosses thoughts on capital gains tax with a boomer this morning, they were in total agreement with Chris and were worried how a capital gains tax might affect young first home buyers. I nearly wet myself laughing.
    Last edited by Aaron; 26-09-2024 at 01:00 PM.

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