NZ 1st homebuyers are ScReWeD...

[Crypto Crude]

quote:
Mick100
Advanced Member
New Zealand
1657 Posts

Posted - 26/01/2007 : 8:25:25 PM
Seems I'v hit a raw nerve macdunk. I sometimes read your posts and I get the feeling that something doesn't add up. Years ago you wrote (on numerous ocassions) about buying a property from housing corp and selling it to your daughter at a profit

One thing that I strongly believe in is to not profit from family or friends... and to not get into business to sell to family and friends...

joeking, does that mean vivins gets your wrap calculator for free?
[8D]
.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

<center>Kiwi flies on rates decision </center>
the promise of a March Interest rate rise has pushed the NZ dollar up against its major trading partners... This is despite almost a year of threats, but no action from the RBNZ....
THE MARKETS ARE NOW PUTTING THE CHANCE OF A MARCH INCREASE BY THE rbnz at 90%...
He also warned the govt over its spending, saying it could push up inflation, house prices and consumer spending this year and next...
quoted from the chch press

I will have to crunch some numbers but Im easily on track to double my share market portfolio within two years... from janurary last year...

some of you talk as if returns on housing are guaranteed... there is NO such thing as a guaranteed return... no such thing as a sure bet on any investment....(guarantees in housing are less certain than ever before)
the only business that guarantees returns is the TAB (they win if any team wins or loses or draws)...
ask the British what their returns have been for the last 10 years on houses....
we had a friend who could not give their house away (almost I say).... they had an open home and no-one turned up....
There has been great storys, but factual info and guarantees in the same sentence is bull....
If I felt it was guaranteed then I would sell the shares buy a house... and not care too much about a short term falling market....
I hope very much that the likes of JK, and others are here in 2.5 years so we can go through where I will get my first house...
[8D]
.^sc....

[Mick100]

Marc Faber suggests that all asset prices may decline this yr including shares, housing and commodities

http://www.financialsense.com/transc...2007/0120.html


MARC: I think that all asset prices have gone up dramatically since, you know, depending 2001, 2002, 2003, but basically we’re up everywhere. If I look around the world there are very few assets that are not expensive. And the big surprise for this year could be that liquidity tightens even if the central bank tries, say, to keep monetary policy easy, because if you look at the Middle East, suddenly all of the markets are down between 50 and 60%. There’s still plenty of liquidity. But the issue there is that liquidity growth slowed down – it didn’t accelerate anymore. And if I look at international reserves in the world they’re still growing at 18% per annum, but they’re no longer growing at an accelerating rate. So it could be that at some point in 2007 liquidity tightens.

I’d also like to make the point that when markets go up they create liquidity because [when] an asset goes from, say, 100 to 200, it increases the borrowing power of the owner of these assets. And when asset prices go down (and we’ve had an appetizer of that in April, May 2006 when suddenly the markets went down – suddenly liquidity dwindled)…And I think the big test for liquidity will come once there is a correction. And I think we’re by historical standards in one of the longest bull markets, which began in October 2002; we’re in a bull market that by historical standards is about average length in terms of magnitude; and since July 13th 2006 when this latest leg in the bull market started we haven’t even had a 2% correction. Now, I lived through the 70s. In the 70s the markets moved sideways but every year the Dow went up and down by about 25%. And here we are and we haven’t had a 2% correction since last July. Something big is going to happen one of these days. And I would not rule out that markets may continue to go up, but as a buyer the risk now is actually quite high compared to the potential reward. It’s as John Hussman recently wrote that there are so few bears (from converting these very few bears into bulls) that the market will not get a lot of ammunition on the upside. But if suddenly so many bulls turn cautious or negative then obviously the downside can be quite substantial because people will liquidate their positions. [8:56]

JIM: Marc, it’s interesting though you’re talking about this liquidity and some of the disruptions that we have seen in various asset markets, the well respected Bank Credit Analyst in their forecast issue for 2007 has the headline which is Another Year of Riding the Liquidity Wave. Can central bankers pump out enough liquidity that maybe we can postpone this for another year or do we really get that lucky?

MARC: Well, I’m just writing about this in my Gloom, Boom & Doom report because basically the theory of the Bank Credit Analyst is that we are in a debt supercycle. Let’s say you take the debt supercycle you could say started in the early 80s when debt to GDP was 130%, we’re now at 330%, and this would be by accounting standards of the government – let’s say private accounting standards would put the debt of the US government at much higher levels because of the unfunded liabilities. But let’s say we’re at 330% - yeah, it’s possible we go to 400%, maybe to 500%. My point is – and I have here to also point out to another report that was written recently and titled Apocalypse Now. This report makes the point that this year we are in one of the most dangerous financial situations and that we could experience very serious setbacks: a) in the global economy and b) in asset markets. And to that I have to say, I don’t know when the supercycle in debt and credit will end. It will end one day. And one day you will have apocalypse. So if someone came to you and said, “Look, the brakes on your car are going to fail one day you have the option: do you want to fix them or doing nothing about it.” My view as an investor is it gradually doesn’t pa

[cantab]

We are in the final phase of the Bull market - [u]rampant speculation phase</u>

http://www.smh.com.au/news/investmen...330826284.html

[cantab]

quote:Originally posted by cantab

Amazing, a 3br house in Christchurch on a 837m section, street facing, for neg over $175,000!

http://www.realestate.co.nz/363612

Listing gone! Block construction, tile roof, not surprising.

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by cantab

We are in the final phase of the Bull market - [u]rampant speculation phase</u>

http://www.smh.com.au/news/investmen...330826284.html

The funny part is they can talk increased prospects of asset value meltdown and then tip which shares to buy... [:0]

[duncan macgregor]

Its a good topic to sort the wheat from the chaff. We have the lot on this thread. Business minded people, other mens lackeys, no hopers, genuinely interested people plus the what have you got jealous brigade. The last lot are probabely all living in another mans house. I must admit that the property that i live in i placed in a family trust, but then thats another story. The cream always rises to top, i feel sure that young SHREWD CRUDE will take on board who the winners and losers are and go from there.
macdunk

[Halebop]

Gotta love demographics.

The pro property "winners" here are mostly Boomer or older. Perhaps unsurprising that I'm also an X'er althugh I've probably been share and business investing longer than many Boomers. Also worth remembering that the pro property opinions voiced in this thread are from those in the business of property rather than those who just want to occupy their own home. The economics are very different when one stance makes you cash and the other costs you. Something their arguments failed to address is Shrewd's original question focussed on "1st homes". The bulk of 1st home buyers are owner occupiers. And don't let me start on tax policy. A flick of the switch and it could be all over red rover. Boomers beware when the X'ers are in charge. Just maybe the old imperatives will not have the same pulling power.

[wns]

Halebop, you've mentioned on this topic that you're sitting on a pile of cash many times the average house price, so I'm guessing $1m+. And from memory you're about 35 years old or so??

I'd be interested to hear some specifics of "your story" - what you did and what you invested in to be in such a position.

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by wns

I get maybe four calls per year from my property manager to discuss a maintenance issue, that's about it. And they aren't highly priced or new properties either. I purchased them for $85k and $92.5k respectively in Nov 2003, and now they are worth about $210k each and rent for $160pw each.

To get those sorts of returns on such cheap purchases I presume you live in a WA mining town! Great timing.