NZ 1st homebuyers are ScReWeD...

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by cantab

quote:Originally posted by cantab

Amazing, a 3br house in Christchurch on a 837m section, street facing, for neg over $175,000!

http://www.realestate.co.nz/363612

Listing gone! Block construction, tile roof, not surprising.

The only offers you got were well below $175,000 and you pulled the sale?

[Halebop]

WNS I'm not particularly ambitious or driven. Just tend to plod along doing things I like. Without even knowing why got it in my head one day as a kid that shares and investing would be cool. Still remember opening my first "sharemarket page" in the Newspaper and trying to work it all out. Comes back to me that a teacher once asked us what we wanted to do when we grew up ...earned a laugh when I said I wanted to work behind a desk. Doesn't quite compare with all my jet flying and fire fighting peers. Wonder how many of them actually came through?

Had many of the middle class advantages the set people up to get ahead: Dad a lawyer, mum a serial "start-up" entrepreneur. Education. 3 Square meals (Not sure what a "square" meal is). Although it shouldn't be I think I had the advantage of being white too.

Fell into insurance by accident after Uni. Like so many in the industry it was something I was going to do until I worked out what I was going to do. The analytical side appealed to my personality so although have left "never to come back" several times I keep an interest in one form or another ... these days tend to consult on one project or another and then leave before working for a living becomes a grind again. (For the record, if you can get past entry level, insurance pays quite well if you are happy to work for someone else's dreams).

Have started several businesses with mixed success. One was quite successful and one was not but sold for more than it was worth during the tech boom (it no longer exists but became part of the technology that went into a high priced Australian dot.com float around 2000 - wish I'd have thought that through a bit more when they offered me "free money" for my stupid business plan and flawed technology).

Most of my wealth has come from share investing. Been investing actively since around 1983. I'll happily admit that early successes were luck and timing (including such "notable" investments as Bruce Judge's Ariadne Australia and a number of gold offerings that were later flattened by the '87 share market crash). Luck had a big roll to play in early years - I had a really appalling portfolio of shares and had began to read books on investing. Just 1 trading day before "The" crash sold the lot in a housekeeping exercise when I realised what a bunch of poop the portfolio was. ...of course later claimed it was my brilliance and market insight. In all the years of investing I've earned returns at least in the teens, have outperformed both the ASX and NZX and have never (yet!) had a down year. I'm very close to being beaten by the indices this year (my trading has been average in absence of making out-sized investments) so there is always opportunity for a first.

Biggest % winner over the years: Baycorp (also I'm pretty sure my longest hold - something for passive investors to take heart in). Worst Investment: Too many to mention but I don't allow myself the leisure of holding them long enough to find out how much "worst" they can become. Mostly my time frame is shortish but not in obvious trading territory - anything from 6 months to maybe 18 months. Mostly looking for re-rating of the under-appreciated or fallen angels. Outsized returns in this category require patience to sit on cash and then the balls to take action and spend it all. Returns typically don't take long to start materializing (or perhaps I don't have the patience to wait for them). When a bad decision is made or the market turns sour - selling without regret is usually the best choice to make.

I take a Buffett approach to valuing a company but a more active approach to investing. Also kid myself that I use technical signals but I'm not as disciplined as someone like Phaedrus in this area. My net worth is more than $1m and that's all I'm willing to say about it. It's literally all in cash but that can change in an eye blink - mostly $A and a portion in $NZ so I can pay bills and not worry about the next pay cheque. For the last 4 or 5 years I've rarely stepped outside of the ASX

[wns]

quote:Originally posted by Heavy Metal

quote:Originally posted by wns

I get maybe four calls per year from my property manager to discuss a maintenance issue, that's about it. And they aren't highly priced or new properties either. I purchased them for $85k and $92.5k respectively in Nov 2003, and now they are worth about $210k each and rent for $160pw each.

To get those sorts of returns on such cheap purchases I presume you live in a WA mining town! Great timing.

Thanks Heavy Metal, I'm from SE QLD and the rental houses are both in Rockhampton in central QLD. I was going to buy four houses in Rockie at the same time but the building inspections showed some problems with the roof etc on the other two, so I just bought two instead of four. In hindsight I would have been better off buying all four but ah well.

[wns]

Thanks for sharing Halebop! Congratulations on your success!

Have you ever thought of writing a book? You present your ideas & thoughts well.

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by wns

quote:Originally posted by Heavy Metal

quote:Originally posted by wns

I get maybe four calls per year from my property manager to discuss a maintenance issue, that's about it. And they aren't highly priced or new properties either. I purchased them for $85k and $92.5k respectively in Nov 2003, and now they are worth about $210k each and rent for $160pw each.

To get those sorts of returns on such cheap purchases I presume you live in a WA mining town! Great timing.

Thanks Heavy Metal, I'm from SE QLD and the rental houses are both in Rockhampton in central QLD. I was going to buy four houses in Rockie at the same time but the building inspections showed some problems with the roof etc on the other two, so I just bought two instead of four. In hindsight I would have been better off buying all four but ah well.

Ah, forgot about Central QLD - a combination of increasing tourism, seachange and the mining boom make for an extremely tight housing market and rentals as scarce as hens teeth.

[Crypto Crude]

halebop... great story....
Your story proves that you don't have to have property to be successful...(or much of it)
contrary to what mackdunk says...
I too have all my holdings now on the ASX... I see the exchange rates at unsustainably high levels over the medium term period...
I prefer to create wealth in a stronger currency...
for the next two years im comfortable with what I do...
if housing goes up 10% this year....say 30k.... and my share investments make 30k, then I'm no better or worse off in dollar terms...
but better off because theres no skill in housing... house investment is boring...
just boring house maintenance jobs... no excitement... no added upside other than increased selling value. biggest excitement for a housing buff is an OCR announcement[]
and that sure turned out be a sizzler for the barbe last thursday
there is satisfaction in making money... Wondering if there is true satisfaction when you dont have to do nothing for it...
I look forward to this next week... I have some big public announcements due...
could be one of my biggest weeks yet... could be just another week...
danger is my middle name... SDC....
[8D]
.^sc- prefers to live life on the wild side....

[Hommel]

I am interested in the statement I have read on here "Residential property goes up 10% pa on average". I have done some calculations on a couple of properties that I know well in Hamilton and that I know the history of for the last 25 -30 years. On bald figures they both compounded out to about 9% pa. BUT if you factor in the not inconsiderable sums spent over the time period on renovations, improvements, new roofs, painting, landscape work, the TRUE increase was about 6.5% pa on both properties. So yes they went up about 9% pa but alot of money had to be spent on them to get this to happen. I think alot of people grossly underestimate the money that gets spent on houses over a 20 to 30 year time frame.

[George]

Been reading this thread with interest.
Just bought the magazine 'Investigate' solely for the article 'Rich man, poor man' - p24 - which is about the 'Uridashi timebomb or Yen carry trade' and wondered if any ST people have comments about the subject and how it may affect property in NZ ad Aus.
Basically, Japanese investors borrow yen at about 0.3% and then buy kiwi dollars around 7%. Over 10b of the 40b invested here are due to be redeemed in 2007 with US29b vulnerable in Aus.
One factor that could scare some Jap investors to take their money out is a change of policy at the Bank of Japan to tighten money, and evidently it's already starting, although very slowly.
One consequence of any problems here would be a rise in our interest rates according to the Reserve Bank and a drop in equity markets.
This happened in Iceland when Fitch downgraded their sovereign debt in March partly because of concerns about the carry-trade. The money promptly fled, the stockmarket plunged 20% and the krona collapsed 8% in 48 hrs. I think there was news recently but not mentioned in this article that Iceland had raised interest rates to 14%.
With my partner and I in our fifties and having to borrow up to 270 grand for a crap, crosslease hole in West Auckland, news like this only re-inforces my opinion to wait.
SC, like you I am hoping to parlay my new found TA skills at trading to increase my net worth over the next 2-3 years and perhaps get into a home then.
George.

[Halebop]

Although Inflation is a bit of a subjective measure at times, I find the RBNZ inflation calculator useful for back-testing real performance:

http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/0135595.html

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by wns

Thanks for sharing Halebop! Congratulations on your success!

Have you ever thought of writing a book? You present your ideas & thoughts well.

quote:Originally posted by Shrewd Crude

halebop... great story....
Your story proves that you don't have to have property to be successful...(or much of it)

Thanks guys! No book in the offing - it would be about as entertaining as one of those scrap booking shows on the living channel. And to put things in perspective - I started investing during the greatest (near unbroken) economic expansion (perhaps ever?). A profitable combination of both Boomer consumption and savings, mostly benign interest rates and inflation and (until recently) soft and falling commodity prices. Anyone investing over such a long and profitable period should have something to show for it. ...my boat was hitched to that rising tide. The same things our erstwhile property investors have done. [Same Sh!t, different Bucket, a friend used to say to me]

quote:Originally posted by Shrewd Crude

I too have all my holdings now on the ASX... I see the exchange rates at unsustainably high levels over the medium term period...

...but better off because theres no skill in housing... house investment is boring...
just boring house maintenance jobs... no excitement... no added upside other than increased selling value. biggest excitement for a housing buff is an OCR announcement[]

I agree the NZ dollar is too strong but it's stubbornly proved me and quite a few others wrong so far.

Not sure about no skill in housing. I've got several friends who either trade or invest in both residential and commercial real estate. Suspect there is a lot of skill in picking up "bargains" in a market where you are competing against a lot of bank financed amateurs. Skill again in making them look like +$80,000 on a +$20,000 budget. At the more passive end I personally look for boring companies on predictable paths so maybe that isn't so different either?