NZ 1st homebuyers are ScReWeD...

[A J]

I would'nt want to buy a house till maybe towards the end of this year, do you people think more will be revealed in that time frame? Perhaps if so I can then make a better decision at that point in time.

Cheers
A J

[Bling_Bling]

quote:Originally posted by vivins

Slightly off topic. But my mother is a real estate agent and she said the other day "I have seen more mortgage sales in this past month than in the last 12 years in the business". I have a feeling things could get very interesting in the next few years

Tell your mum to enjoy the party while it last. Once the party stops, everyone is gonna have a huge hangover they will never forget. Alot of NZers still have nightmares from 1987.. LOL

[vivins]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

quote:Originally posted by vivins

Slightly off topic. But my mother is a real estate agent and she said the other day "I have seen more mortgage sales in this past month than in the last 12 years in the business". I have a feeling things could get very interesting in the next few years

Is your mother selling appartments? I.e. is this accross the board or on specific property types?

She sells all types of residential housing. I believe she has a few apartments (3-5) and 2 houses up for a mortgage sale. Of course this isn’t fact, simply what she has noticed. This is in the Kapiti area btw.

[coge]

In terms of Kapiti, it's all a bit of a small town.
One time there were a number of mortgagee sales that all belonged to the same party.

[small fish]

Its probably not surprising when you consider the market has been going up for several years and for many years previous the market had been flat.

[Crypto Crude]

quote:A J -I would'nt want to buy a house till maybe towards the end of this year, do you people think more will be revealed in that time frame? Perhaps if so I can then make a better decision at that point in time.
Cheers

If you ask us that question at the end of the year, and you will get the most accurate answer....
at the moment I'd be prepared to wait a year or two....and no specific time period to wait....
whats good now, may not be good at year end
AJ- it is near impossible to time the market to the point where you get the cycles absolute minimum.... wait for market to drop.... see it rise.... then make entry....
my point is if you get it on the down and it keeps falling then you are a worried soldier
if you get that same point on the way back up, then your ride is more secure......
watch it drop... watch it start a new cycle...see it rise alittle... entry.... this is my strategy...

yes of course more will be revealed in that time period.... your exposure to year end market info will be greater at year end... im expecting OCR to be at peak year end....
does anyone have any ideas about house price stickiness? and the fact that Long run prices are flexible.... compared to short run where prices are slow to adjust....
such as OCR announcement thursday where house prices wont exactly drop that day... but surely must over a following period....
could this OCR announcement start to factor in previous ones.... hum....
its a wait and see game...
all I know is that I'm not prepared to take 30yrs to gain a 300k asset now... which may be worth a mill in 30 years.... think I can do better by another means....
[8D]
.^sc

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by aspex

Bollards latest:
Dr Bollard signalled his frustration by revealing it, and other government agencies, are looking at other measures to support the OCR.

Was there any indication on the next rate review?

[Crypto Crude]

yup OCR up to 7.5%....
average house price in NZ is 350k
350k * .075 = 26,250
350k * .0725= 25,375
For the average NZ homeowner this will add $875 to debt payments per year...not totally accurate as bank borrowing rate isnot the OCR rate...!...
... havn't heard anything about the next rate review steve...
IMO next review....75% chance hold..... 23% chance rise..... 2% chance fall.
[8D]
.^sc

[patsy]

quote:Originally posted by Shrewd Crude

this will add $875 to debt payments per year[8D]
.^sc

Yup, just less than the cost of one long black per day for a whole year. Unless there is a serious attempt to absorb the overwhelming liquidity in the market, nothing will really change. And he doesn't have the balls to do it (as clearly shown).

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by aspex

Easy Dr Cullen - you know how to do it.

Seems to be a lot more will power to tax "rich" share owners than the media spin connotations that taxing dwellings risk providing.

Kieran Trass offered that there were 250,000 residential property landlords in NZ, I suspect as an implicit threat to their political power? With the Cullen Fund, Super/Pension Savers, Unit Trust Investors, Direct Share investors and mortgage free oldies worried about their grandkids, aggregate share investors and non property investors and owners would top the number of landlords by multiples. Where would the votes really lie I wonder?