NZ 1st homebuyers are ScReWeD...

[Tok3n]

Wonder what would removing those generous tax breaks and slapping capital gain tax on property etc would do

[corran]

SHREWDY, the housing market never crashes
.....
.....There is never a better time to buy a property than now.
.....
.....To not own property as soon as you can afford it will hold you back in later life. Macdunk

Hi guys,

Just stumbled across this excellent thread. Haven't had a chance to read through most of the posts but wanted to add my 2c...

My own opinion is pretty much the exact opposite of what MacDunk is stating above: Housing markets have (and will continue to) crash, there has never been a worse time to buy, property is cyclical - there are times to buy and times to sell.

Throughout history there have been many examples of housing bubbles and housing market crashes. Look at the Florida crash in the '20's, Japan in the '90's, and what's playing out in the States now and gathering steam in UK, Ireland, etc. NZ is next in my opinion.

Home affordability is at all time lows in many parts of the world. Globally, we're in a classic bubble fuelled by easy credit, relatively low interest rates and irrational exuberance -- there's no way it can continue.

House prices always revert to their long term average and at the moment many countries are way above that.

I want to move my family back to NZ in 10 years or so and have got some money saved up for a house but there's no way I'm going to buy anytime soon. The time horizon I'm looking at is 5 years, I think thats when the next housing market bottom is going to form.

I agree that at most times in history housing has been an excellent investment. But there have been exceptions and I think that 'now' is one of these.

The levergae you get when taking on debt to buy a house works well when prices are rising but can cripple you when prices fall. We bought an appartment at the peak of the Amsterdam housing market in 2002. We needed to sell in 2005 but prices had dropped about 20% from their peak and we were in negative equity. It caused us a lot of financial stress, but it taught me a valuable lesson.... before then I bought into the commonly held belief that house prices only ever go up........ oh how wrong I was.

[STRAT]

Hi Corran while we are speculating on the next bottom / leg up I think you might be late with 5 years. Next leg up 2011 I recon

Apartments are a different deal. Houses dont go up ( unless building costs go up of course ). The land under them goes up. Apartment prices in Auckland for example have shown price movement relating more to Supply and demand for student accommodation rather than following the general market trends.

[Joe King]

[
Barfoot and Thompson Director said, "It is not a good time to buy"
Shrewd Crude said, "it is not a good time to buy"
Mackdunk said, "there is never a better time to buy than right now"
....haha....

.^sc[/QUOTE]

Jeez Shrewdie have not been ST for a while, interesting to see you still wafting on???
For the record I am with McD "there is never a better time to buy than right now". In fact although I vowed to stay out of the property market **, I bought a lovely 3 BR small investment home last week for my daughter. Market appraisel 165k. Reg. valuation 160k paid 140k. Vendors relocating Aussie. Already rented $230 wk.
Great posts above Arb. George. Serpie.
G'Day Dunk still pushing it uphill here I see....trust you are following AGM saga??
Cheers
JK.

** For those new to ST. JK used 20k equity in home and leveraged it into 37 properties over 3 years. (see earlier pages this thread) Since sold all but 6 and retired.
quote Zig Ziglar ... "The opportunity of a lifetime comes along every day"... today is no exception!

[STRAT]

Thats a great story JK. May I ask out of interest when you made the 1st purchase as per your post and when you sold up?

PS at 165k today I assume you are on the mainland

[Corporate]

[
Barfoot and Thompson Director said, "It is not a good time to buy"
Shrewd Crude said, "it is not a good time to buy"
Mackdunk said, "there is never a better time to buy than right now"
....haha....

.^sc

Jeez Shrewdie have not been ST for a while, interesting to see you still wafting on???
For the record I am with McD "there is never a better time to buy than right now". In fact although I vowed to stay out of the property market **, I bought a lovely 3 BR small investment home last week for my daughter. Market appraisel 165k. Reg. valuation 160k paid 140k. Vendors relocating Aussie. Already rented $230 wk.
Great posts above Arb. George. Serpie.
G'Day Dunk still pushing it uphill here I see....trust you are following AGM saga??
Cheers
JK.

** For those new to ST. JK used 20k equity in home and leveraged it into 37 properties over 3 years. (see earlier pages this thread) Since sold all but 6 and retired.
quote Zig Ziglar ... "The opportunity of a lifetime comes along every day"... today is no exception![/QUOTE]

Where abouts was the house for $140k that rented for $230pw?

[Mick100]

[
**, I bought a lovely 3 BR small investment home last week for my daughter. Market appraisel 165k. Reg. valuation 160k paid 140k. Vendors relocating Aussie. Already rented $230 wk.

care to tell us what's happened to your 700k portfolio of extremely speculatives shares over the last 6 months JK - from what I remember, not a single company in your portfolio had any earnings. Even conservative investors have taken a hit recently but speculative investors have been hammered. Hopefully, for your sake, you have realised that your way out of your depth in the markets. Looks as if macdunk has come to this conclusion - (he's finnally got something right)

someone once said to me when i was younger "stick to what you know"
In yours and macdunk's case, that's realestate
,

[Arbitrage]

Good one JK. 8.5% yield not bad for residential.

The rental market is interesting at the moment. Crockers just advised that preliminary rental data for December showed a kick in rental prices upwards. I just let an apartment yesterday with a 12.5% rental increase. Only advertised it once and it was gone within 24 hours. Even then some prospective tenants thought it was cheap.

Wait for the headlines screaming that rents are too high as the yields start to get back up to something reasonable.

[Crypto Crude]

joe King,
yes, Stick to what you know...It sounds like you have made the best move by selling your 31 houses...
...

If it was never 'a better time to buy', as you agreed with MD then why have sold 31 houses which you just disclosed in your last post?....
would you not be buying more?
..

Joe King,
I have put my career in New Zealand on the line by waiting off..... I've put myself in deep on this thread, standing up to the king pins like yourself and its all coming to plan...... ...Now The fact that I called it one year early, doesnot mean anything... The situation has now become much worse... In fact I would rather be seeing prices continue to rise as the downturn would then be more severe...
....
Auckland price drop in Jan, will signal the rest of the market. And in the next two months we will officially find out that national prices are falling and larger than predicted by most... Westpac is predicting 5% national downturn this year... Auckland got 50% higher than that in Jan...
Watch out....
...
It seems to me that strat has moved stance and backed away from MD as he said next leg up in 3 years...I tend to think 5 years, but re-adjust my thinking in a few years time to the changed market and continuing to persue open minded, balanced think, and ... you lot hang around in the mean time losing 10% on interest charges, any house price falls... It doesnot matter how rich you are and what you made in the past....
what is important is where is the housing market going to be in 5 years, and whats going to happen for the next five years...
....
anything else is really insignificant to the thread topic...

.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

once again, very good posts by neopole, corran...
MD...
Ok, so no competition...
I reckon NZ national Median house value will drop to 250-270k, is my prediction in the next 5 years...
Just talking to my great chinese mate and he said China is having problems, 200 failing property businesses...
America Is having problems... AUS will have them if not already... UK....
NZ will lag...
....
From looking at the Mackdunk argument, I can only
see one situation that could occur so that housing Does not hit a big slump, downturn....
....
what is that only situation?
"NZ opening up borders and expansive immigration policy"...
...
Every signal other factor, and indictor points to a downturn, which will last longer than anyone in the market place is predicting.

.^sc