NZ 1st homebuyers are ScReWeD...

[Steve]

Back to the threat topic. This market is just beautiful for cashed up buyers. You can get some real bargains. There are blood on the floor and some investors are bleeding.

Cashed up and still expecting to wait another 6 months...

[upside_umop]

Thanks for that summary MD.
You should start a thread called 'tips for homebuyers,' or something.
Always good to learn a bit more before I take the plunge...

[Steve]

No rush to take the plunge though...

Housing slump for 3 years - Bollard
Homeowners face at least a three-year wait before properties begin to return to current values, says the Reserve Bank.

In a gloomy report on the economy, the bank predicted house prices would fall 13 per cent over the next three years.

[remy]

that will quite possibly work out quite well for me getting in to my first house presuming i land the right job, shrewd out of interest how old are you? Im guesing your 22-24

[Crypto Crude]

im bang in the middle Remy...
Thanks for post replying MD...
I'll probably buy a house around the time of your attendance at a chch NC meeting anyway.....
...
Thanks for the article Steve...
I took the picture in the Article and turned it into my Avatar...

mackdunk-All the wall needs is one little pin hole in the wall for the wall to suck water up, even uphill like sucking water through a straw.

is it a Leaking building or a leaking asset...?
put a pin Hole in the wall and Dollars pour out onto the street...

.^sc

[upside_umop]

shrewdy i reckon the rb is underestimating that pick eh..

didnt they say 13% nominal in next 18 months?

we have had circa ~ -2% in last 12 months and 4% inflation --> ~ -6%

inflation looking to average 4.5% over next 18 months and 13% drop --> ~ -20 %

theres 26% in 18 months from now...and 30 months from peak.

30% real terms will happen.

[tim23]

Bollard only makes calculated forecasts so they can't be deemed lies can they?

[upside_umop]

Thats right tim123...imagine if they were to come out and say 'we think prices will drop 40% over next 3 years in real terms....'

There would be havoc..but if they tell a wee lie now...or dont say the 3 year prediction, no one will get in trouble in 18 months. It would be a little 'mis-calculation'

[peat]

should he be making comments like that ? not so much the prediction of market direction but the very specific amounts he predicts for it to fall

I guess they (Central Bankers) have a history of jawboning bubbles so as to prevent excess and inevitable pain but once the bubble has burst it kind of seems wrong to predict so much pain so assertively. His actions should speak these thoughts imo.

[Dr_Who]

should he be making comments like that ? not so much the prediction of market direction but the very specific amounts he predicts for it to fall

I guess they (Central Bankers) have a history of jawboning bubbles so as to prevent excess and inevitable pain but once the bubble has burst it kind of seems wrong to predict so much pain so assertively. His actions should speak these thoughts imo.

The RB have been warning us for a few years about the housing bubble. It comes to no surprise that it did burst. Some choose to listen and cashed up, while others just fell on deaf ears. The RB do pick it right most of the time, maybe their timing is abit out, but it will happen.

I really dont see any recovery in the property market till (maybe) late 2009/2010. But then the realty agents will tell you otherwise and their views is that the market never drops.