Rubicon - any thoughts?

[artemis]

Have been holding and watching Rubicon for a couple of years, during which time the share price has hardly moved. It seems to be well run, has had a significant share buyback, but still no share price movement. No doubt suffering from the high dollar. What will it take to see some upwards movement.

[biker]

Lower NZ dollar,upturn in the US housing market and progress on commercialisation of ArborGen.

[shasta]

Artemis

RBC is still off the radar despite the fact it is a likely takeover target. When GPG sold out it still had 2 cornerstone shareholders with blocking stakes, RBC owns 50%+ of Tenon!

To take control of RBC, gives you control of TEN which would seem to be "the play", when (not if) it happens.

Have held/traded before, but currently on watch, awaiting further activity from the major shareholders.

I would have thought Third Avenue Management (holding 18.84%) would make a move while our dollar is high v the $US.

Watching the volume & charts with interest.

[hods]

So what has pushed it up today ?

[shasta]

Hods

Good question?

Was rather heavy volume over just 21 trades in RBC, & with the Tenon Chariman buying more Tenon shares On Market...

Keep an eye out for the USD over $0.70 v NZD, this may be the catalyst for this "play" to happen.

[frosty0612]

Hi, I'm new to sharetrader, can anyone give me advice on whether I should be buying Tenon shares or Rubicon shares? Thx.

[Westie]

quote:I would have thought Third Avenue Management (holding 18.84%) would make a move while our dollar is high v the $US.

Third Avenue is a fund manager. I've never heard of them buying a whole business.

quote:Hi, I'm new to sharetrader, can anyone give me advice on whether I should be buying Tenon shares or Rubicon shares? Thx.

Personally if i had to choose 1 I would hold RBC as you get exposure to Tenon + exposure to RBC's holding in arborgen, horizon etc.

However, in saying that, it seems more likley that action will happen on Tenon before any of RBC's other investments come to fruition. Moriarty's recent purchase of 24000 shares of Tenon may lend support to this idea (assuming that he could equally have purchased RBC shares but chose not to).

The Third Ave website have a link to a Barron's article on the manager of Third Avenue's International Value Fund (owner of the Ten & RBC stakes). He's got a background in forestry & has 8.5% of the fund in forest products. Seems like he has a pretty fair idea of what he's doing.

[frosty0612]

Hi,thx for that Westie, I see that RBC has 57% of TEN. Based on mkt cap of $232m for RBC and $200m for TEN then RBC share holding in TEN is worth $114m.
The market is placing a value of $118m on RBC's other assets. Anyone know if they might be worth those sorts of numbers? Presumabley Moriarty didn't think so.
Thx again for your help.

[barney]

Frosty
Have you checked out the Rubicon website?If you look at the publications section you will see under presentations and shareholder notices addresses from past agms and an update on Arborgen from November last year.The update will give you some info on what Arborgen is doing and what the management of Rubicon think its potential is worth.(but keep in mind it is what the MANAGEMENT think it's worth.Not necessarily what the market thinks it's worth.)

In regards to Moriarty's shareholding in Rubicon the annual report from 2006 had him listed as holding just under 1.4m shares.You will also find that several of the US based fund managers who hold large holdings in Tenon are also large shareholders in Rubicon.

[PointyHat]

I have held for some time, selling half my holdings at 1.03 29/10/04 and bought a top up later when sp was low. (I don't hold TEN as I am in with RBC and sold my Fletcher Forest/TEN shares years back.)

I must admit I was expecting the NZ$ to go lower earlier than this or I might have got out of RBC totally in 2004.

Each RBC result however does show that there is a a solid long term investment here and the trusts and long termers must be interested for the growth and potential of Horizon and Arbogen. Especially with the Assie & NZ possible tree planting programmes.

I have also thought over the years that a take over might be on the cards. Either a buy up of TEN or while the RBC sp is low a stand in the market?

Now is a good time for these thoughts, as future results and returns from TEN will be in (hopefully) high US$ and converted to low NZ$!!

I think that is what makes it still a hold for now for me. It would be interesting to know what the brokers advise on RBC. Does anyone know?