sharetrader
Page 424 of 899 FirstFirst ... 324374414420421422423424425426427428434474524 ... LastLast
Results 4,231 to 4,240 of 8982
  1. #4231
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Wellington, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    755

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by nztx View Post
    HLG are near the top of my list to add further

    I note Beagle's earlier very good comment that they may be overpriced, however their track record
    with sound financials appears better than others. No Apr 20 Dividend is a small sacrifice to secure further
    as the market seems to concur.

    Winter 20 Indent/Season may be curry or affected to a degree, but beyond that with reopening they should rebound


    I remember looking closely at HLG back 2-3 years ago at around $3 levels, but never moved at the time

    I regard WHS HGH OCA MET MHJ ANZ & WBC as possible value/rebound stocks for the future
    along with a further list of 'punts' which may deliver quite well
    MHJ only has a 32M dollar debt.
    Say 200k per shop
    Mmm not too bad I suppose but need to get back to work soonish...

  2. #4232
    Legend
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Everywhere
    Posts
    6,931

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by clearasmud View Post
    MHJ only has a 32M dollar debt.
    Say 200k per shop
    Mmm not too bad I suppose but need to get back to work soonish...
    probably in the wrong thread...
    but IMO MHJ possibly oversold & punished
    Deferred Mar 2020 dividend out to Sep 2020 is not as draconian as some other companies either
    I know where MHJ were before Covid 19 and before that rise up to that point too
    Last edited by nztx; 10-04-2020 at 11:21 PM. Reason: add more

  3. #4233
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    10,993

    Default

    the bounce was highly predictable ( maybe not the size ) at 1.80 it was way oversold ( probably over bounced now but looked like someone was agressively pushing the price up ). I still stick to my view for each % decline in sales the need to raise cash becomes more important. the no dividend policy i would imagine stays in place all year to cover the lease obligations. staff culling will take place as well to some degree along with inventory sell down if possible to raise cash. But as a retailer you can only cut so much and the fixed costs will bite you. So my pick raise some bank debt or cash issue?

    In the US cpi announced this week apparel prices dropped 2%
    Last edited by bull....; 11-04-2020 at 08:22 AM.
    one step ahead of the herd

  4. #4234
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Posts
    565

    Default

    I'm seeing HLG adds everywhere online right now, this will be emphasised because I opened one up to take a look which always results in more but hopefully they're selling a bit online.

    I've certainly got a lot more spare $$ in the bank account due to everything being shut so perhaps I will get some new clothes.

  5. #4235
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    Good reason to be very cautious with retail stocks, especially apparel with operations on both sides of the Tasman. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...f=recommended\

    We also shouldn't overlook the possibility that when lockdown restrictions are lifted in N.Z. we could see a spike in numbers and them have to revert to lockdown again, and again. I have always maintained that most people want to try clothes on for fit and to feel the fabric before buying. Sure their online sales will go up, but its not going to be a panacea for all their wows by any stretch of the imagination. I maintain my view that the bounce on this has been substantially overdone.

    Huge amount of water to go under the bridge before retail looks anything like what it did before Covid 19.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #4236
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2014
    Posts
    397

    Default

    Glassons target market don't necessary think that way Beagle. Young females I know are very happy to order stuff online then send it back if they don't like it, ASOS are hugely successful with this business model. I think men are more likely to want to buy clothes in a physical store though.

    Agree that retail is in for tough times, I think fair value of HLG is around $3.50 at the moment based on a simple DCF model and that includes them making a loss this year. If they don't make a loss or profit recovers more quickly than I anticipated fair value would be much higher.
    Last edited by James108; 12-04-2020 at 03:43 PM.

  7. #4237
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Posts
    233

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by allfromacell View Post
    I'm seeing HLG adds everywhere online right now, this will be emphasised because I opened one up to take a look which always results in more but hopefully they're selling a bit online.

    I've certainly got a lot more spare $$ in the bank account due to everything being shut so perhaps I will get some new clothes.
    Probably because google knows you have been looking in this thread.

  8. #4238
    Guru
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    2,685

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by lissica View Post
    Probably because google knows you have been looking in this thread.
    Tracking all posts
    Replies
    4,243
    Views
    589,994

  9. #4239
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by James108 View Post
    Glassons target market don't necessary think that way Beagle. Young females I know are very happy to order stuff online then send it back if they don't like it, ASOS are hugely successful with this business model. I think men are more likely to want to buy clothes in a physical store though.

    Agree that retail is in for tough times, I think fair value of HLG is around $3.50 at the moment based on a simple DCF model and that includes them making a loss this year. If they don't make a loss or profit recovers more quickly than I anticipated fair value would be much higher.
    I simply think at an absolute minimum Thursday's 65 cent bounce is based on nothing but hope that this lockdown is a one off event and then its done and dusted. I don't see it that way. I think patronage at malls will be affected for a very, very long time. Online is 15% of their business model if I remember correctly. Maybe this goes up to 20% but that's still ~ 80% of their business that's materially affected for quite some time and how much will they lose in FY20 and maybe FY21 as well ? Too many unknowns for my liking.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  10. #4240
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    850

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    I simply think at an absolute minimum Thursday's 65 cent bounce is based on nothing but hope that this lockdown is a one off event and then its done and dusted. I don't see it that way. I think patronage at malls will be affected for a very, very long time. Online is 15% of their business model if I remember correctly. Maybe this goes up to 20% but that's still ~ 80% of their business that's materially affected for quite some time and how much will they lose in FY20 and maybe FY21 as well ? Too many unknowns for my liking.
    You touch on the key thing that a potential investor needs to "calculate" at present, and calculate isn't the right word, because man, are there a wide range of outcomes...

    Let's look at this as four variables

    W = Current sales of the business in a lockdown state eg web sales.
    X = Current expenses of the business in a lockdown state, eg assume wage subsidies and rent negotiated as low as zero as possible.
    Y = Sales of the business once the lockdown is over.
    Z = Expenses of the business out of lockdown, eg no wage subsidy (perhaps after a transition period where it was still paid?), rent closer to normal or normal.

    Everybody is investing knowing that W - X = nothing good, while the lockdown is on, and arguably, it is right to look past this period, especially if the balance sheet is decent.

    But I think people are starting to assume that Y - Z = something close to normal, but is that actually a safe assumption?

    Once the lockdown is over, it is far more likely that Z returns to something more like normal than Y returning to something more like normal, at least for a while.

    Given that wages and rent are such huge costs for retailers, it is actually possible that W - X produces less of a loss than Y - Z does, at least for a possibly prolonged ramp up period.

    Also remember one of the main killers of businesses is fast growth. We're taught to see the rewards of fast growth, but fast growth periods are exceptionally dangerous for a business as expenses tend to ramp before revenues, systems, processes, teamwork and morale are tested etc etc.

    We have a virtually unprecedented situation here : Previously low growth businesses basically halt completely. Then we want (need?) them to go from zero to lots very quickly.

    I don't think that is going to go as smoothly in many cases as people expect, and people who have run businesses (especially those with lots of people) can probably appreciate some of the reasons why.
    ----
    Never try to teach a pig to sing. It wastes your time and annoys the pig.
    ----

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •