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  1. #4351
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mogul View Post
    Bought in in the gloom. Strong companies can get stronger in tough conditions when weaker competitors go by the wayside.
    I was getting pretty interested when it got down to $1.85. Was hoping for $1.50. Time will tell how they weather this but I wouldn't touch it at anything like the current price.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #4352
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    Many years in clothing manufacturing tells me if stock does not start moving quickly then massive non-profitable sales will begin to clear stock. Reports of China cutting wages by 10% - 50% may be the savoir of the clothing industry but misery for workers.

    Comments from DOW overnight

    "Wall Street closed in the green in a volatile session on Friday, as oil prices (+7%) extended gains to link their third weekly rise and offset a dismal US retail sales report. On Friday, a US Census Bureau report showed retail sales plunged by a record 16.4% in April (vs consensus of 12.3%), with clothing falling 78.8% and electronics 60.6%. On the policy side, the US House aims to pass a $3 trillion coronavirus relief package across four bills later today despite opposition from Senate Republicans and the White House."



  3. #4353
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    Center place mall on friday was not empty, people were out and about but i certainly cant see HLG staying at current prices. Even KMD has pulled back. DISC: bought KMD at 72 sold at 1.10. KMD is back to post float prices and may trade in a range. July to late october will be interesting. Post GFC was a trading environment and i see this also as a 2 year trading phase especially if it takes time to manfacture a vacine. Remeber Inida does most manufacturing from product shipped from china for most generic drugs.. Traffic on the motor wasy south from hamilton started following in large numbers friday evening. It will be interesting to check the population moments this coming weekend.

  4. #4354
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    price come off a bit lately probably due to the realisation and facts going by paymark talk. sales were not as good as expected for apparel when we went to level 2 .

    would be no surprise apparel suffers during downturns , also car sales . a phonomenon in in countries
    one step ahead of the herd

  5. #4355
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  6. #4356
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiwidollabill View Post
    From the article:

    "Turnover was down 9.4 per cent when compared to April 2019."

    That doesn't sound too bad at all. Once the recession and those job losses start kicking in, it will likely be a different story.

    One would assume NZ's figures will be a lot uglier due to the imposed lockdown.

  7. #4357
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiwidollabill View Post
    It also says ....Turnover in clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing, and cafes, restaurants and takeaways is around half the level of April 2019.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #4358
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Broken down through 30 day MA now. Looks like from a TA perspective the bounce may have been overdone and may be over. Economic reality to bite as lots of unemployed people only buy consumers staples and get their clothes from somewhere cheaper like Kmart ?
    Last edited by Beagle; 22-05-2020 at 11:14 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #4359
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Broken down through 30 day MA now. Looks like from a TA perspective the bounce may have been overdone and may be over. Economic reality to bite as lots of unemployed people only buy consumers staples and get their clothes from somewhere cheaper like Kmart ?
    Where do you think it will settle? There seem to be a few stocks that have just started to realign themselves with economic reality. Thinking ZEL, AIA, ANZ and this one to name a few. Is it a sign that the new "retail investors" are back in the office with work to do, or they've run out of powder, or some profit taking by the smart money? Or are people just getting real and we're seeing the beginnings of a correction back to an L shaped recovery?

  10. #4360
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclical View Post
    Where do you think it will settle? There seem to be a few stocks that have just started to realign themselves with economic reality. Thinking ZEL, AIA, ANZ and this one to name a few. Is it a sign that the new "retail investors" are back in the office with work to do, or they've run out of powder, or some profit taking by the smart money? Or are people just getting real and we're seeing the beginnings of a correction back to an L shaped recovery?
    Crikey there's some difficult questions in there. I think high end retail will really struggle, KMD is a very bad bet in my opinion. Does anyone really need a $400 jacket or other name brand item for the foreseeable future ? People will trade down in brands, google mountain warehouse. On the other hand basics and necessities will do just fine WHS should be perfectly okay.

    Glassons Australia were doing really well before the lockdown and also Glassons N.Z. and Hallensteins were doing okay. This mid priced section of the apparel market is very difficult to read. Management have a very good reputation and an investment on the blind into HLG at this point without knowing the short term impact of Covid 19 is really a punt on management's ability to trade their way through this and get back to an acceptable level of profitability over time.

    I like the company, the management and the mid priced position it occupies in the apparel sector. Their accounts are clean and easy to understand, there's no debt and no funny business with intangible assets or any other nonsense.

    To value this however is incredibly hard. Some serious guesswork is involved. My sense is profitability will not recover to anywhere near previous level's until there's a vaccine and people feel really comfortable going to the mall again. On the other hand their online offer is very good but there remains in my mind fundamental uncertainty over how demand will shape up going forward.

    There are clear demand, currency and cost headwinds, (significant increase in minimum wage from 1 April 2020 and again on 1 April 2021).
    I got really interested when it broke back down under $2 in late March, (having sold out in the late $5's a little while earlier). I was too greedy and was looking for $1.50 so missed that opportunity.

    Back in August 2016 there was fundamental uncertainty with a number of large overseas chains looking to open stores here. The shares were $2.70 then, the dividend yield was 15% gross inclusive of imputation credits and the forward PE was less than 10. That was great buying and I did in decent volume.

    We're not there yet. I see more risk at present than what existed in late 2016, considerably more. I think the best thing is to simply let this one settle down and have a look again when there's a clear and sustained new uptrend. I'll use a break up through the 100 day MA as my main TA indicator. I think in the meantime reality bites and the recent jump up from a low of $1.80 in late March has been overdone.

    Now we're well on the way to getting on top of this virus in N.Z. I'd be interested again in the mid - late $2 range and might take a punt there even without TA indicators around there as I like the management. If it doesn't get down there I will use the 100 day TA signal to tell me when to get back in.
    My 2 cents worth.
    Last edited by Beagle; 22-05-2020 at 01:22 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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