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  1. #4156
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    Quote Originally Posted by James108 View Post
    So to arrive at a fair value of close to $2/share what kind of losses are you forecasting? I checked my model and to arrive at a valuation close to $2/share earnings would look something like a $30m loss this year, break even next year and long term average EPS of 28c/share (down from long term average 35c/share and recent earnings of 40+c/share).

    Personally that seems slightly pessimistic to me. Maybe useful as part of a downside risk valuation.
    Running up some rough figures using your prediction of a 30% drop in sales, I think you are expecting more or less break even this year, is that about right? If so, you could well be right and things may not be as grim as I'm suggesting. Some might argue a 30% sales reduction is conservative, although the fact 2 thirds of the year is already gone might be a saving grace. But with a world of unknowns about how all this is going to pan out, a pessimistic bear market might dictate $2/share is not that unrealistic.

  2. #4157
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    Maybe a silly question, but I wonder if there's any data on clothes shopping behaviour patterns? For me it's a bit like going to the dentist or getting car serviced - a chore to do once or twice a year. I wonder how many are on this end of the spectrum (pun intended) versus frequent impulse buyers and those in between? And how much sales vary from month to month. ie how much pent up demand that will result in higher sales on reopening?

  3. #4158
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    I'd treat any such data with extreme caution. There's too many unknowns here - when do "normal" patterns resume?- how much money is left in customers' pockets? - what retailers are left standing?
    And so on.

  4. #4159
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    A $30m loss I.e bottom line. I agree, I wouldn’t be surprised to see $2/share again but that doesn’t mean $2/share is fair value.
    Last edited by James108; Yesterday at 04:16 PM.

  5. #4160
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    GS reckons discretionary spending such as clothing and footwear may fall 50% as a result of the containment measures with restaurants and hotels even higher. On the PLUS side food, alcohol, tobacco and communication. ..........Numbers slightly less for Australia.

    Glad I retired from the clothing game many moons ago.

  6. #4161
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    KMD having to do a major cash issue at 50 cents is a very sobering reality check for investors in all retail.
    The fact that the legendary guru of retail Rod Duke refused to participate, (despite the bargain basement price), should serve as a warning that he thinks the road ahead is extremely difficult and probably may never have been this challenging since the great depression of the 1930's.

    For what its worth, in recent days my intentions have changed and I am not intending to buy back in to HLG until they can prove their business model is viable again.
    The bear will determine the bottom price and I don't think we've seen that yet.
    Last edited by Beagle; Yesterday at 08:13 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  7. #4162
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    Can no one see there will be pent up demand returning after lock down?
    Deferred spending rather than put off altogether

  8. #4163
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    Can no one see there will be pent up demand returning after lock down?
    Deferred spending rather than put off altogether
    I would be inclined to believe that there will be an explosion of consumerism once humans are let loose on the world again but it is also possible that people who are still able to earn a living or receive income during this event will be amazed at the amount of money left in their pockets now that casual spending has been made more difficult. I can't help but wonder if maybe we become a bit more thoughtful about where our money goes. Probably just transferring my own thoughts to the masses but it feels like a lot of things will be different at the end of this, at least for a while....

  9. #4164
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    Yes, but people will have less money to spend (those that are still working) and all those that will be new to unemployment, a lot less.

  10. #4165
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    Quote Originally Posted by flyer View Post
    Yes, but people will have less money to spend (those that are still working) and all those that will be new to unemployment, a lot less.
    Will be interesting to see if they benefit on punters "trade down" to HGL - shopping there rather than a more expensive brand/store.

  11. #4166
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    imo ........thing that could HELP the most for HLG is if their competition closes down as every 4th shop in malls are clothing. But not until those stores clear all stock @ bargain basement prices which all stores will be attempting to do.

    I don't believe people will rush out to buy clothes once Covid-19 lockdown is finished probably the last item on my thoughts.

  12. #4167
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    Quote Originally Posted by dreamcatcher View Post
    imo ........thing that could HELP the most for HLG is if their comopetition closes down as every 4th shop in malls are clothing. But not until those stores clear all stock @ bargain basement prices which all stores will be attempting to do.

    I don't believe people will rush out to buy clothes once Covid-19 lockdown is finished probably the last item on my thoughts.
    I need some new tshirts, if they are 50% off or more I would buy them. I wouldn't buy them from HLG, I'd buy AS Colour or from culture kings, but surely a regular customer would go shopping again if I would, provided the discount for pent up stock was there.

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