HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[Waltzing]

Well W(n) we are hoping that this time we are wrong and that is why we havnt sold everything. The only big regret we have this time is we always want to buy the freights and we missed them again. With an eye shares on other exchanges it very hard to keep commitments to anyone share.

In many respects the individual with one portfolio is at a big advantage as they can commit to half dozen or so shares and not be distracted.

DISC: As the virus is whack a mole in europe but it fades we are being constantly distracted back to europe.

[macduffy]

In many respects the individual with one portfolio is at a big advantage as they can commit to half dozen or so shares and not be distracted.

True. You can't kiss all the girls!

[Balance]

I hope that recent all time high of 735 isn’t going to stay as an all time high forever

Waltzingmans comments about HLG it being cyclical keep coming back to haunt me

The first Fib retracements levels are $6.38 and $5.78 and $5,30

Everything hinges on the results and dividends coming up.

SP will not retrace step by step if the results disappoint! It will be straight down to $5.30 or even lower.

[Waltzing]

Now the opinion its a coin toss. Also another stuff up by the Ghost department of Virus busting like Northland and we will be dumping trading positions on the NZX. Not long term positions.

[Balance]

Everything hinges on the results and dividends coming up.

SP will not retrace step by step if the results disappoint! It will be straight down to $5.30 or even lower.

Obviously (as I expect) HLG comes out with a stellar result, sp will shoot up to at least $8.00 as a first step.

Then, sit back and watch the yield investors chase the stock higher.

Now the opinion its a coin toss. Also another stuff up by the Ghost department of Virus busting like Northland and we will be dumping trading positions on the NZX. Not long term positions.

No coin toss from me. I put my money where my convictions are.

[Waltzing]

The company has performed well over the last 10 years and that is why we havnt sold this time. We dont call it conviction just probability. On dividend we think its almost the most under valued stock on the NZX.

How ever with multiple Ports over exchanges we dont have much risk on this stock as we have mentioned that Travel in 5 years time will be a strong performer again and moving investments into that global market.

Not investing in Virgin just yet. Mars is a no go for holiday packages just yet.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Everything hinges on the results and dividends coming up.

SP will not retrace step by step if the results disappoint! It will be straight down to $5.30 or even lower.

I highly doubt it - even a result below expectations likely wouldn’t lead to anything like that sort of sell off as the dividend will still bring strong support.

[Waltzing]

It tends to over react for some reason if you look back to the down side. the vol is very light and that is what can cause the problem. We just dont hold a lot for any stock that does not have depth.

[Mudfish]

Okay, I've read lots of great posts on HLG and the December Update and here's my 2 cents.

Positives are:
- 14.51% sales up first 18 weeks Aug-Nov (from HLG Update Dec)
- Clothing spending up 8% over Christmas (Thanks for this Winner - it took me ages to find source but I did)
- My personal observation, it seems people are pretty happily spending up a storm out there . I even went to HLG this morning to buy some shorts.
Young lady there said Christmas was very busy (one store only, I know).

Negatives are:
- Shipping difficulties and increased freight costs are challenging (from HLG Update Dec).

Therefore, sales volumes will very likely be excellent but does that equate to more profit due to margin erosion? That's the million dollar question for me. So let's look at the figures. Respectfully, this has pretty much been covered by Beagle in the past but I'd like to present it slightly differently.

Figures - 3 Options
Option 1
Sales are excellent and margins remain good. A very conservative increase of 10% moves profit up to 16.984m. At a SP of $7.16 that gives a PE of 12.5. That's an absolute bargain with a fantastic divi too.
Option 2
Sales are excellent but margins are gobbled up by extra freight costs. If profit is the same as last years (15.44m 2020), SP of $7.16 gives a PE of 13.8. And likely a good divi.
Option 3
Profit downgrade due to excessive freight costs. Guess 14m (plucked out of the sky just needed a negative). SP of $7.16 gives a PE of 15.3. And still likely a good divi.

The interesting thing for me is, as Beagle has pointed out, BGR has a PE of 18.8. Therefore, HLG SP still seems undervalued even if the update in Feb is average. I have just bought a few at $7.16 and hope to accumulate a few more. Of course there is some risk but the upside far out-weights it IMO. Any thoughts are most welcome.

[Waltzing]

Check Aus retail government stats for the big picture. The excel stats file is not the best but at least they release the data going back YTD - n