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07-08-2018, 03:38 PM
#2371
Originally Posted by ShouldHaveHeld
Bought some pretty good sweaters from here the other day.
Thinking of putting my hands in the shares too now... Anyone wanna give me a brief about why i should buy and why i should not?
Thanks
Good brief is already contained in posts this year. Suggest you read from page 118 onwards wherein a lot of experienced investors have already invested a lot of their valuable time explaining why this is a good company. Happy holder.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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07-08-2018, 03:56 PM
#2372
Originally Posted by Beagle
Good brief is already contained in posts this year. Suggest you read from page 118 onwards wherein a lot of experienced investors have already invested a lot of their valuable time explaining why this is a good company. Happy holder.
Yep, lots of spoon feeding going on toward watchers and non active forum members. When you find a stock you believe is good/undervalued, stand by your own conviction no matter what anyone on here says, load up and enjoy the ride. PS-Loaded since $3.39.
Last edited by couta1; 07-08-2018 at 04:38 PM.
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07-08-2018, 03:59 PM
#2373
Hope you fast reader shouldhaveheld .......HLG costing you heaps more every hour you dilly dally around
Trust us .....its going to 6 bucks very soon
Reason why will be apparent in next day or two .....maybe it’s $33m and not about $30m as i thought it might be.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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07-08-2018, 04:31 PM
#2374
Yep. If the sweater fits ......wear it.
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07-08-2018, 04:33 PM
#2375
Originally Posted by winner69
Hope you fast reader shouldhaveheld .......HLG costing you heaps more every hour you dilly dally around
Trust us .....its going to 6 bucks very soon
Reason why will be apparent in next day or two .....maybe it’s $33m and not about $30m as i thought it might be.
First half was $15.1m but its de rigueur these days to normalise everything so if we adjust this for the $1.7m charge taken against the Storm brand now sold we get normalized profit of $16.8m for the first half. Last year 54% of full year profit was earned in the first half so if we assume this pattern continues I get estimated normalised profit for the year of $31m.
On 59.6m shares this gives ~ 52 cps. Worth noting that Briscoes is currently trading on 12.8 times historical earnings and Kathmandu 13.7 times...
Not being a greedy hound... let's split the difference and call it a fair PE of 13.25...heck that's nearly $7 !
Last edited by Beagle; 07-08-2018 at 04:34 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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07-08-2018, 05:11 PM
#2376
I think we all agree its going to be a superb result. I like your maths Beagle and the winter season has been very conducive to continue the summers stunning result. Apart from a weaker USD everything is underpinning a great result.
On the USD ...I've tried to map a correlation between HLG profit and USD rise/fall rates. I know there is supposed to be that a weaker dollar is bad for importers. Try as I may to quantity this variable I can only conclude the USD dollar fluctuations , even when quite large, are irrelevant to HLG profits.
Then chuck in the lastest KMD result as an indicator.
So that means nothing is in the way of HLG`s greatest profit ever.
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07-08-2018, 05:25 PM
#2377
Originally Posted by Maverick
.....
On the USD ...I've tried to map a correlation between HLG profit and USD rise/fall rates. I know there is supposed to be that a weaker dollar is bad for importers. Try as I may to quantity this variable i can only conclude the USD dollar fluctuations , even when quite large, are irrelevant to HLG profits.
Great work maverick
We need to spread the word — USD dollar fluctuations , even when quite large, are irrelevant to HLG profits.
Guru Mark from Craig’s probably disagrees though
Last edited by winner69; 07-08-2018 at 05:27 PM.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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07-08-2018, 05:27 PM
#2378
I think we are being a tad conservative. There is plenty of growth left for HLG which isn’t reflected in the share price and we are not yet at the top of it’s business cycle.
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07-08-2018, 05:29 PM
#2379
Member
Originally Posted by Beagle
First half was $15.1m but its de rigueur these days to normalise everything so if we adjust this for the $1.7m charge taken against the Storm brand now sold we get normalized profit of $16.8m for the first half. Last year 54% of full year profit was earned in the first half so if we assume this pattern continues I get estimated normalised profit for the year of $31m.
On 59.6m shares this gives ~ 52 cps. Worth noting that Briscoes is currently trading on 12.8 times historical earnings and Kathmandu 13.7 times...
Not being a greedy hound... let's split the difference and call it a fair PE of 13.25...heck that's nearly $7 !
some nice analysis. Certainly a dollar of value there in the shareprice assuming a PE of around 12 which is where I would say is fair value. A nice 20% upside with just under 10% gross divi is a solid return.
Clothing space fairly volatile and very competitive but in the short/mid term which I think you guys are focused on its risk weighted return is beyond most others around.
disc; do not hold
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07-08-2018, 05:34 PM
#2380
Beagle .....doubled our money now I reckon
Not too bad for a year or twos work eh — especially when punters tried to talk us out of HLG seeing they were never going to be able to compete with those global behemoths and they were past their due by date and all that sort of stuff
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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