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  1. #4111
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    You misread my post bull. I am not suggesting that this whole mess will be done in four weeks. I am thinking in terms of scenarios.

    I am suggesting that four weeks is the absolute minimum disruption time, just one scenario. You then have to look at a more pessimistic (but realistic?) scenario of 4 months. Then look at what might happen if one year is the true lock down scenario. Then run each scenario as a separate analysis.

    Finally assign a probability for each option you choose, and you will come out with a probability related result. This isn't an estimate of what will happen. In fact the answer you get will almost certainly not reflect what actually happens. But it does give you a result that is the best estimate you can get of the financial return you might expect.



    You are talking about a long term trend here bull. This is a different issue to a pandemic event which has immediate effect. The future you paint here may turn out to be what happens. But short term, having people roll up for entertainment experiences to replace retail in the current climate isn't going to happen.

    SNOOPY
    fair point snoopy and totally like the way you think. analysis takes in all senarios.

    It would be good to hear what your thoughts are about the demographics and there impact on hlg. mine are that they will lose jobs mostly young casuals and part timers etc a large number of these maybe hlg shoppers
    Last edited by bull....; 24-03-2020 at 08:10 AM.
    bull

  2. #4112
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    They will do a strategic withdrawal from Oz I reckon

    Going to be too hard and risky to make a buck over there
    maybe. micheal hill just announced

    In the interests of the health and safety of our people and our customers, Michael Hill today announces that it will suspend operations of its Australian store network for an indefinite period with immediate effect.

    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...480/319429.pdf
    bull

  3. #4113
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    They will do a strategic withdrawal from Oz I reckon

    Going to be too hard and risky to make a buck over there
    I don't think that is likely. But I'm sure lots of unlikely things are happening right now.

    They have quite a few Glassons stores in Aus (32 Glassons, 4 Hallensteins) vs NZ which is 37 Glassons and 43 Hallensteins. The scale of their Aussie operation is bigger than you might realise.

  4. #4114
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    Wow, HLG surging today.

  5. #4115
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bobdn View Post
    Wow, HLG surging today.
    Good day for the losers today ...hope there's not too much regret from the panic sellers of last few days

  6. #4116
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Good to see your Beagle nose working properly again Snoop dog. I reckon you are bang on the money. The way the mall owners shares are also being pummelled KPG about 50%, they will wear a lot of the pain from this. No way it sheets home all to the retailers otherwise they will have ghost malls with no tenants left !
    From

    "https://www.nzx.com/announcements/350510" A non-price sensitive announcement apparently (from Kiwi Property Group).

    "In light of the four-week closure of non-essential business ordered by the Government yesterday, Kiwi Property has identified a small number of tenants, relative to the total number of tenants in its portfolio, with a contractual right to suspend rental payments if they are unable or chose not to occupy or utilise their premises because of the Government order."

    I wonder if HLG is one of those tenants?

    "If all of the tenants exercise this right for the entire four-week shutdown period, the Company expects it would result in a drop in gross rental income of around $6 million, representing less than 3% of the prior year’s gross rental income."

    Hang on, this is just for four weeks. If we extend to four months (17 weeks) then the gross income loss extends to:

    $6m x ( 17/4 ) = $25.5m (13% of the prior year’s gross rental income)

    And if we extend out for the whole year, then the rental loss adds up to:

    $6m x 52/4 = $78m (39% of the prior year’s gross rental income)

    Now what percentage of Kiwi Property Group assets are in shopping mall assets again?

    But none of that is material. Right? (It might be material for HLG though!)

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 24-03-2020 at 06:54 PM.
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  7. #4117
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    HLG confirming they are going to have virtually no revenue for the next 4 weeks (nearly 10% of the year)
    Yet going to have plenty of bills to pay still.
    As I've said many times before, retail is risky and tough.. being around 100 years or so and having no debt will help, but it won't guarantee you survive.

    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/348525

    Not great... profit going backwards and future uncertain
    They sounded the alarm (when reading between the lines) over 5 weeks ago... turned out to be very uncertain future indeed... and absolutely stunning that the share price rises on this kind of news.
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 26-03-2020 at 10:49 AM.

  8. #4118
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    HLG confirming they are going to have virtually no revenue for the next 4 weeks (nearly 10% of the year)
    Yet going to have plenty of bills to pay still.
    As I've said many times before, retail is risky and tough.. being around 100 years or so and having no debt will help, but it won't guarantee you survive.
    Yes but they are in the same boat as everyone else in the retail sector. Surely everyone won't go under. Many will survive and they are probably in a better place than anyone else.

  9. #4119
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    China is getting back up to speed so yes there will be supply line probs but maybe some revenue from online sales? Pipi to me its more about whether HLG is a good investment proposition atm. Disclose not a holder atpit.

  10. #4120
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    Online sales in N.Z. closed, only online sales in Australia for now, for as long as permitted https://www.nzx.com/announcements/350722
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  11. #4121
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    "....."..................
    Last edited by winner69; 26-03-2020 at 01:46 PM.

  12. #4122
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    [QUOTE=winner69;802507]Kathmandu sending online orders to nz from Australia

    That would fit into non essential, couriers told not to deliver non essential goods, ports are saying they will run out of space for essential goods

  13. #4123
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    Some lucky punters must be 50+% up on this one this week. Really do have to wonder why it's gone up so quickly and if it will actually hold.

  14. #4124
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    Cats out of the bag Monday and probably won't be pretty.........

  15. #4125
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    The thing about fashion retailers is they are going to be left with a ridiculous amount of stock they have not sold. They would of ordered their autumn and winter season in advance (usually fashion plans at least 6 months ahead). They are going to have to sell down their stock significantly when this lifts. Even if there's huge demand, a month without trade is too much to catch up on.

    Farmers will be hit even harder I imagine

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