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18-01-2021, 06:17 PM
#5911
Jeez shareprice down to 710 .... and lucky it didn't close lower
Hope the faithful aren't deserting the ship .....maybe waltzing warning us that HLG is a true cyclical and a drop in share price is inevitable
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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18-01-2021, 06:46 PM
#5912
A few days HLG heading towards 8 bucks
Last few days heading sub 7 bucks
Suppose that is just part of normal share market behaviour
No worries
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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18-01-2021, 06:50 PM
#5913
its a very vol stock going on past performance and that is why we sold 75 % at 6.10.
moves of 50 cents or more are to be expected.
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18-01-2021, 07:06 PM
#5914
Originally Posted by winner69
A few days HLG heading towards 8 bucks
Last few days heading sub 7 bucks
Suppose that is just part of normal share market behaviour
No worries
Beggar all volume though yeh??
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18-01-2021, 07:11 PM
#5915
Member
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18-01-2021, 07:41 PM
#5916
VWAP was $7.22 so no worries.
HLG is the only BUY I have actioned this year so far which speaks for itself on what I think has the best prospects for near term price appreciation.
WHS currently trading on 23 times FY20's covid affected earnings and BGR on 18.8 times. Mid point of those is 20.9 x last years HLG covid affected earnings of 46.6 cps = $9.74.
Hard to see how current year eps is not going to be more than 60 cps so current year PE is only 12, (quite possibly less) which is very cheap considering the demonstrated growth in the Glassons brand.
How much of this is catch up sales is a difficult question but I think travel restrictions and people's propensity to spend on retail in lieu of travel is something that will endure well into 2022. The tailwind effects of once in a generation ultra low interest rates could give retail quite a boost for many, many years.
Tailwinds will also be felt from the high $Kiwi. I also really like the speed of growth in online sales and their existing penetration in that regard is well advanced of its above mentioned peers. Another thing people aren't talking about is that overseas retailers like Amazon are now having to charge GST on goods sold to Kiwi customers so we now finally have a level playing field for HLG. Further, its clear they are building out their online offer with an international website.
Very strong balance sheet and I agree with Winner's recent observation that their cash on hand at the time of next reporting could be close to $1 per share as they take a cautious approach with capex and store roll-out.
If they're going to be earning north of 60 cps and they already have ~ $1 a share in cash one wonders if the prospects for fully imputed dividends aren't north of 50 cps ~ (70 cos gross) ?
Where else can you earn 10% gross dividend yield, possibly more with exciting growth prospects on a current year PE of just 12 ?, (Current year PE may be less than this)
What happens to the share price when we get NZX50 inclusion or some broker analysts wake up and smell the coffee and start covering this, or perhaps both these things ?
Talk of $10+ is not silly pipe dreams stuff, but in fact is quite plausible within the next year or two in my opinion.
Thanks to so many of you for the warm welcome back, much appreciated. I have taken the opportunity today to share much of my musings over the holidays. Hopefully its helpful to some of you good folks. Best wishes to all for a very prosperous 2021 !
Last edited by Beagle; 18-01-2021 at 07:52 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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18-01-2021, 09:33 PM
#5917
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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18-01-2021, 09:54 PM
#5918
Its worth 12 at least if interest rates are at near zero.
As for dye the pollution of the great rivers in India are bad enough that the next wave of plagues could come from anywhere.
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19-01-2021, 12:44 PM
#5919
NZ Electronic Card spend for December data out today (Stats NZ)
Total retail up a healthy 3.5% from Dec19 month
But apparel up a whopping 8.2% on pcp
Punters buying clothes big time again
Glassons etc gain market share so sales up even more
Last edited by winner69; 19-01-2021 at 12:57 PM.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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19-01-2021, 01:04 PM
#5920
Member
My Daughters tell me they for the last 2 years can get most of what they want from HLG, they used to spend their money with Asos and Urban Outfitters. They tell me the buyers are now much better than before.
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