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13-02-2019, 03:12 PM
#3071
Exactly, Brain! And it makes a big difference if that management has significant skin in the game - as is the case with HLG - and Briscoes!
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13-02-2019, 03:50 PM
#3072
Originally Posted by Beagle
Sales were up 7.2% for the first 7 weeks or so and then 4.8% the other day to the end of November and now only 4% up and now this from the outlook comments
"Whilst the new financial year started well, the outlook for the balance of this season and into the new calendar year remains unpredictable. Australia and New Zealand continue to be increasingly challenging retail markets. Consumers on both sides of the Tasman face ever-increasing pressures and challenges on their discretionary spend, and businesses in both countries are experiencing legislative change as well as challenging exchange rates and cost increase pressures".
Ouch, no wonder the SP has tanked. Margins are clearly under a material amount of pressure.
From December 2018
Don't want to be a sour "puss" BUT
Beggared if I know how you reconcile management's repeated warnings about challenging conditions and margins under pressure with this mornings announcement WTF ?
Then there was the opposite fiasco with KMD saying growth was strong in November last year and now forecasting very modest growth which is actually negative eps growth.
One thing is absolutely certain is that this market is extremely challenging. Challenging to interpret the real truth from some of the B.S. issued by some companies.
I am extremely disappointed with the disingenuous nature of outlook statements made by both companies in late 2018.
Last edited by Beagle; 13-02-2019 at 04:05 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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13-02-2019, 04:02 PM
#3073
Originally Posted by Beagle
From December 2018
Don't want to be a sour "puss" BUT
Beggared if I know how you reconcile management's repeated warnings about challenging conditions and margins under pressure with this mornings announcement. WTF ?
Then there was the opposite fiasco with KMD saying growth was strong in November last year and now forecasting very modest growth which is actually negative eps growth.
One thing is absolutely certain is that this market is extremely challenging. Challenging to interpret the real truth from some of the B.S. issued by some companies.
I am extremely disappointed with the disingenuous nature of outlook statements made by both companies in late 2018.
Three or four "huge" days compared with three or four "poor" days at Christmas/New Year makes all the difference.
Hot days people stay away from shops.Couple of good cool or wet days,and malls do well.
On a good day you can do a usual week's turnover.Any experienced retailer knows you can be well ahead,and then quickly fall well behind.
HLG are not so foolish to promise great outlooks.
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13-02-2019, 04:10 PM
#3074
Originally Posted by Beagle
From December 2018
Don't want to be a sour "puss" BUT
Beggared if I know how you reconcile management's repeated warnings about challenging conditions and margins under pressure with this mornings announcement WTF ?
I have no issues being a buy and hold kinda guy with this stock, I judge the company by its outstanding track record through good and bad times, no debt, exceptional average divvy payments over many years plus the quality of the Top 20 shareholder base who haven't sold any(I dont include Gragher in this as they are fly by night players)
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13-02-2019, 04:16 PM
#3075
Originally Posted by percy
Three or four "huge" days compared with three or four "poor" days at Christmas/New Year makes all the difference.
Hot days people stay away from shops.Couple of good cool or wet days,and malls do well.
On a good day you can do a usual week's turnover.Any experienced retailer knows you can be well ahead,and then quickly fall well behind.
HLG are not so foolish to promise great outlooks.
Bloody hard to read the tea leaves when management place either a very thick rose or black coloured filter over them.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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13-02-2019, 04:22 PM
#3076
Originally Posted by Beagle
Bloody hard to read the tea leaves when management place either a very thick rose or black coloured filter over them.
Maybe time to sit back and just smell the roses then :-)
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13-02-2019, 04:22 PM
#3077
Originally Posted by Beagle
From December 2018
Don't want to be a sour "puss" BUT
Beggared if I know how you reconcile management's repeated warnings about challenging conditions and margins under pressure with this mornings announcement. WTF ?
Then there was the opposite fiasco with KMD saying growth was strong in November last year and now forecasting very modest growth which is actually negative eps growth.
One thing is absolutely certain is that this market is extremely challenging. Challenging to interpret the real truth from some of the B.S. issued by some companies.
I am extremely disappointed with the disingenuous nature of outlook statements made by both companies in late 2018.
The impact of their statement (3/12/2018) last year certainly had a major impact on the SP.
Were they disingenuous though?
On 3/12/2018 (the day the SP started falling) they said:
The Company advises that Group sales for the first 17 weeks of the new financial year (from 2 August 2018 to 30 November 2018) are +4.8% ahead of the same period last year. The trading environment has remained tough in both New Zealand and Australia. It is however not possible to reliably forecast the total Summer season trading result as the December and January trading periods contribute such a large proportion of sales and profit for the season.
We will however provide a further trading update at the Company’s Annual General Meeting on 12 December 2018.
On the 12/12/2018 the annual meeting was told that things were pretty steady. They mention a tough environment but note they are responding.
I think the market jumped to dire conclusions rather than the company saying that trading was going bad.
By the time of the 12/12/2018 meeting the SP had already fallen of the cliff. The SP has been relatively stable since then.
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13-02-2019, 04:25 PM
#3078
Never let a company like Gragher scare you out of your shares by assuming they know best when they clearly dont.
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13-02-2019, 04:28 PM
#3079
Beagle me old mate ...the numbers are even better than what they said
Remember Storm
Back out Storms numbers from last year sales were up 5.6% and profit up $2.4m (on $16.0m forecast) or a huge 17%
HLG don’t worry about ‘normalising’ things ...that’s cool eh.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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13-02-2019, 04:32 PM
#3080
Originally Posted by Beagle
Bloody hard to read the tea leaves when management place either a very thick rose or black coloured filter over them.
Just as hard for them to read.
Retail is fickle.
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