sharetrader
Page 292 of 294 FirstFirst ... 192242282288289290291292293294 LastLast
Results 4,366 to 4,380 of 4402
  1. #4366
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    16,082

    Default

    Broken down through 30 day MA now. Looks like from a TA perspective the bounce may have been overdone and may be over. Economic reality to bite as lots of unemployed people only buy consumers staples and get their clothes from somewhere cheaper like Kmart ?
    Last edited by Beagle; 22-05-2020 at 12:14 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  2. #4367
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2020
    Location
    In the trough
    Posts
    352

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Broken down through 30 day MA now. Looks like from a TA perspective the bounce may have been overdone and may be over. Economic reality to bite as lots of unemployed people only buy consumers staples and get their clothes from somewhere cheaper like Kmart ?
    Where do you think it will settle? There seem to be a few stocks that have just started to realign themselves with economic reality. Thinking ZEL, AIA, ANZ and this one to name a few. Is it a sign that the new "retail investors" are back in the office with work to do, or they've run out of powder, or some profit taking by the smart money? Or are people just getting real and we're seeing the beginnings of a correction back to an L shaped recovery?

  3. #4368
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    16,082

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclical View Post
    Where do you think it will settle? There seem to be a few stocks that have just started to realign themselves with economic reality. Thinking ZEL, AIA, ANZ and this one to name a few. Is it a sign that the new "retail investors" are back in the office with work to do, or they've run out of powder, or some profit taking by the smart money? Or are people just getting real and we're seeing the beginnings of a correction back to an L shaped recovery?
    Crikey there's some difficult questions in there. I think high end retail will really struggle, KMD is a very bad bet in my opinion. Does anyone really need a $400 jacket or other name brand item for the foreseeable future ? People will trade down in brands, google mountain warehouse. On the other hand basics and necessities will do just fine WHS should be perfectly okay.

    Glassons Australia were doing really well before the lockdown and also Glassons N.Z. and Hallensteins were doing okay. This mid priced section of the apparel market is very difficult to read. Management have a very good reputation and an investment on the blind into HLG at this point without knowing the short term impact of Covid 19 is really a punt on management's ability to trade their way through this and get back to an acceptable level of profitability over time.

    I like the company, the management and the mid priced position it occupies in the apparel sector. Their accounts are clean and easy to understand, there's no debt and no funny business with intangible assets or any other nonsense.

    To value this however is incredibly hard. Some serious guesswork is involved. My sense is profitability will not recover to anywhere near previous level's until there's a vaccine and people feel really comfortable going to the mall again. On the other hand their online offer is very good but there remains in my mind fundamental uncertainty over how demand will shape up going forward.

    There are clear demand, currency and cost headwinds, (significant increase in minimum wage from 1 April 2020 and again on 1 April 2021).
    I got really interested when it broke back down under $2 in late March, (having sold out in the late $5's a little while earlier). I was too greedy and was looking for $1.50 so missed that opportunity.

    Back in August 2016 there was fundamental uncertainty with a number of large overseas chains looking to open stores here. The shares were $2.70 then, the dividend yield was 15% gross inclusive of imputation credits and the forward PE was less than 10. That was great buying and I did in decent volume.

    We're not there yet. I see more risk at present than what existed in late 2016, considerably more. I think the best thing is to simply let this one settle down and have a look again when there's a clear and sustained new uptrend. I'll use a break up through the 100 day MA as my main TA indicator. I think in the meantime reality bites and the recent jump up from a low of $1.80 in late March has been overdone.

    Now we're well on the way to getting on top of this virus in N.Z. I'd be interested again in the mid - late $2 range and might take a punt there even without TA indicators around there as I like the management. If it doesn't get down there I will use the 100 day TA signal to tell me when to get back in.
    My 2 cents worth.
    Last edited by Beagle; 22-05-2020 at 02:22 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  4. #4369
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Canterbury
    Posts
    6,006

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclical View Post
    Where do you think it will settle? There seem to be a few stocks that have just started to realign themselves with economic reality. Thinking ZEL, AIA, ANZ and this one to name a few. Is it a sign that the new "retail investors" are back in the office with work to do, or they've run out of powder, or some profit taking by the smart money? Or are people just getting real and we're seeing the beginnings of a correction back to an L shaped recovery?
    Saw recently a worthwhile presentation from Fisher funds. Here is a summary: https://fisherfunds.co.nz/newsroom/m...y-and-recovery

    They defined the phases of a crisis as: Sell-Off, Stability, Reality and Recovery.

    We did Sell-off and Stability for this crisis. Reality is next. I'd expect brutal SP reductions before we see the fourth phase.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  5. #4370
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2020
    Location
    In the trough
    Posts
    352

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Crikey there's some difficult questions in there. I think high end retail will really struggle, KMD is a very bad bet in my opinion. Does anyone really need a $400 jacket or other name brand item for the foreseeable future ? People will trade down in brands, google mountain warehouse. On the other hand basics and necessities will do just fine WHS should be perfectly okay.

    Glassons Australia were doing really well before the lockdown and also Glassons N.Z. and Hallensteins were doing okay. This mid priced section of the apparel market is very difficult to read. Management have a very good reputation and an investment on the blind into HLG at this point without knowing the short term impact of Covid 19 is really a punt on management's ability to trade their way through this and get back to an acceptable level of profitability over time.

    I like the company, the management and the mid priced position it occupies in the apparel sector. Their accounts are clean and easy to understand, there's no debt and no funny business with intangible assets or any other nonsense.

    To value this however is incredibly hard. Some serious guesswork is involved. My sense is profitability will not recover to anywhere near previous level's until there's a vaccine and people feel really comfortable going to the mall again. On the other hand their online offer is very good but there remains in my mind fundamental uncertainty over how demand will shape up going forward.

    There are clear demand, currency and cost headwinds, (significant increase in minimum wage from 1 April 2020 and again on 1 April 2021).
    I got really interested when it broke back down under $2 in late March, (having sold out in the late $5's a little while earlier). I was too greedy and was looking for $1.50 so missed that opportunity.

    Back in August 2016 there was fundamental uncertainty with a number of large overseas chains looking to open stores here. The shares were $2.70 then, the dividend yield was 15% gross inclusive of imputation credits and the forward PE was less than 10. That was great buying and I did in decent volume.

    We're not there yet. I see more risk at present than what existed in late 2016, considerably more. I think the best thing is to simply let this one settle down and have a look again when there's a clear and sustained new uptrend. I'll use a break up through the 100 day MA as my main TA indicator. I think in the meantime reality bites and the recent jump up from a low of $1.80 in late March has been overdone.

    Now we're well on the way to getting on top of this virus in N.Z. I'd be interested again in the mid - late $2 range and might take a punt there even without TA indicators around there as I like the management. If it doesn't get down there I will use the 100 day TA signal to tell me when to get back in.
    My 2 cents worth.
    Thanks for the solid reply, Beagle

    Well, I dipped my toe in the water again yesterday, having sold out on the 25th of March at $2.75...thought I was doing ok at time given it was 1.80 2 days beforehand, and expected it would track back towards 2 bucks again, but that didn't happen of course. Hindsight's a wonderful thing.

    I know it's a risk getting back in at these levels, but it's 10 or so percent off the recent high, and their last update was much better than I anticipated. Will DCA if they get down towards $3.30 or less. Surely we won't see them sub 3 bucks again... Surely I'm not going to get this one wrong twice haha.

  6. #4371
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2014
    Posts
    269

    Default

    A few weeks ago I said based on a simple DCF valuation I thought fair value was around $3.5, following the recent positive update I think fair value is probably around $3.70. I also think there is a high likelihood I am wrong in the order of +- 25%, with less (but not negligible) chance I am wrong by a greater amount.

    What does that above show?
    1. That most of the value in the business is due to mid and long term cash flows, not short term performance.
    2. If the SP falls to below $2.80 I would be looking to buy with increasing confidence.

    A few other things, we now have more confidence HLG will not need to raise capital, coming out the other side HLG may have a fair bit of cash due to the cancellation of the recent dividend.

  7. #4372
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    16,082

    Default

    Agree James but DCF valuations are only as good as the multiple assumptions (guess's ?) that underpin them. Huge amount of guesswork involved here, nothing is clear. The below $2.80 area is really where I would need to see this to have sufficient confidence that there is sufficient buffer for the risks involved.
    In the meantime I am with BlackPeter that reality will probably bite really hard. Best wishes to holders.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  8. #4373
    A BEARISH BULL winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    26,485

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Agree James but DCF valuations are only as good as the multiple assumptions (guess's ?) that underpin them. Huge amount of guesswork involved here, nothing is clear. The below $2.80 area is really where I would need to see this to have sufficient confidence that there is sufficient buffer for the risks involved.
    In the meantime I am with BlackPeter that reality will probably bite really hard. Best wishes to holders.
    Lockdown over ...no need to distance yourself from reality now,
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  9. #4374
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2020
    Location
    In the trough
    Posts
    352

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by James108 View Post
    A few weeks ago I said based on a simple DCF valuation I thought fair value was around $3.5, following the recent positive update I think fair value is probably around $3.70. I also think there is a high likelihood I am wrong in the order of +- 25%, with less (but not negligible) chance I am wrong by a greater amount.
    Yeah, I know, James, and I think I put it to you at the time that I thought it was worth about $2.30. You had the last laugh. I certainly don't want to pay $4+ at the moment, so picked up a small holding yesterday at $3.75, will park them long term if I have to and DCA if the opportunity arises. Confidence inspiring update last week and I'd always intended to have them in the long term portfolio. I expect as the value of our dollars gets watered down and interest rates remain minuscule, when these types of companies get back to paying good divvies, they'll be in greater demand than ever before.

  10. #4375
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    16,082

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Lockdown over ...no need to distance yourself from reality now,
    I wonder how quiet it is in their Queenstown stores ? Reality tends to bite over a period of time in my opinion. Interesting that they continued to pay dividends right through the GFC. They must think this time is worse. On 26 February 2009 in the depths of the GFC they were $2.13 but this is obviously worse. Hmmm
    Last edited by Beagle; 22-05-2020 at 04:28 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  11. #4376
    Veteran novice
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    7,127

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    I wonder how quiet it is in their Queenstown stores ? Reality tends to bite over a period of time in my opinion. Interesting that they continued to pay dividends right through the GFC. They must think this time is worse. On 26 February 2009 in the depths of the GFC they were $2.13 but this is obviously worse. Hmmm
    Probably their quietest store in NZ? But hardly typical. I'd be more interested in how the Auckland, Wgtn, ChCh shops are faring. Not a time to buy HLG in my opinion - but they're well managed survivors and their time will come again.

  12. #4377
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    16,082

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    Probably their quietest store in NZ? But hardly typical. I'd be more interested in how the Auckland, Wgtn, ChCh shops are faring. Not a time to buy HLG in my opinion - but they're well managed survivors and their time will come again.
    Probably. Interesting survey conducted by CNBC in the US came out overnight, sorry haven't got a link. Safe spending v at risk spending.
    What are you most likely to reduce spending on if your income falls ?
    #1. Dining out and entertaining, (already happening in a widespread way)
    #2. Apparel and footwear, (next shoe to drop ?, pardon the pun)
    #3 Travel and leisure. (obviously this has fallen off the edge of a cliff at present)

    Obviously the travel and leisure market is in the toilet as is the hospitality industry but who would have guessed that apparel and footwear would be right up there in the same league in terms of what people will spend less on if they need to tighten their belt ?

    Unsurprisingly spending on pets was well and truly down towards the bottom of the list.
    Guess what was right at the bottom of the list ? Broadband connectivity.
    Last edited by Beagle; 23-05-2020 at 10:17 AM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  13. #4378
    Veteran novice
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    7,127

    Default

    Guess what was right at the bottom of the list ? Broadband connectivity.
    Yes, it's become almost as necessary as food and shelter to a lot of people - such as us!

  14. #4379
    A BEARISH BULL winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    26,485

    Default

    HLG (and other online retailers) must be getting really pissed off with courier performance of late

    Makes you think twice about buying on line ....and then often whatever you were going to buy you will decide you don’t really need it if you have to go to a store
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  15. #4380
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2019
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    254

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    HLG (and other online retailers) must be getting really pissed off with courier performance of late

    Makes you think twice about buying on line ....and then often whatever you were going to buy you will decide you don’t really need it if you have to go to a store
    Freightways couriers e.g. NZ couriers delivering promptly- within couple of days. Courier post excruciatingly slow (we waited for weeks).

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •