HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[gbogo]

Impressive results and a stock I have owned in the past. But I am hesitant to buy at this level. Too much overhead from previous forays above $3.60 some time ago. Prefer to buy a dip below $3.30 but maybe I’ll miss out and we’ll never see that again.

[winner69]

Impressive results and a stock I have owned in the past. But I am hesitant to buy at this level. Too much overhead from previous forays above $3.60 some time ago. Prefer to buy a dip below $3.30 but maybe I’ll miss out and we’ll never see that again.

Won’t be below $3.30 for a while, if ever.

Even if Winston’s and Grant’s recession hits late next year I reckon the share price will remain pretty robust.

A huge market crash might stuff it up completely but then that’ll affect most stocks so no worries. If that was to worry you you wouldn’t be on this site would you? (Lol)

[BlackPeter]

Been this morning at the AGM, took notes and lost them (must have forgotten to depress the "save" button - maybe I should go back to paper & pencil).

However - the good news is anyway already public knowledge: NPAT predicted (if things keep going as they do in the first 16 weeks) "up 50% to last year", so from my side just some "subjective" observations.

Good atmosphere and quite full - the room took roughly 90 people (including board) and I estimate that about 75 to 80 have been there. Not many empty seats.

HLG came with its full board and most of its SMT. Initially surprised to see that many well dressed young man and woman in the AGM. My first thought (that they brought some models) was wrong. This was the senior management team! They certainly managed to implement diversity (age and gender) in their leadership team ... and yes, apparently it was all HLG apparel they were wearing ...

Never have seen in an AGM such a relaxed atmosphere - they just felt like a winning team having fun with each other.

Talked with several of the directors (and the CEO) - and there was a very optimistic outlook on both big markets (NZ and Australia). Sounds like that particularly the Australian Glassons team performed some miracles.

Asked what their key differentiator to Amazon was: They (HLG) specialise on one market segment and understand that really well. From memory the CEO said something like "Quality, offering the newest trend and first to deliver".

Interesting - they didn't really notice in their books the arrival and departure of TOP shop in Auckland (and H&M some other place) ... and some people on this thread got that excited about this competition!

Feeling after this AGM really good about my little investment into HGL - though, maybe I should have bought some more of their shares ;

[Beagle]

Extract from annual report under future outlook page 7.
For the first seven weeks of the year sales growth has been +5.48% on last year.
Now for the first seventeen weeks which includes the above first seven week period they're ahead +15% on last year.
Sales last year averaged $4.6m per week. For the sake of this calculation to keep things as simple as possible lets assume sales are constant throughout the year. First 7 weeks sales are 4.6m +5.48% = 4.867m per week = $34.07m.
For sales to be now up for the first 17 weeks by 15% sales must have been 4.6m x 1.15 x 17 = $89.93m. Deduct the first seven weeks of $34.07m gives sales of $55.86m in the latest ten week period of $5.586m per week a 21.43% increase on the same ten week period last year. ($5.586m / $4.6m = 1.2143)
Acknowledge its not that simple as sales are not constant throughout the year but nonetheless the most recent 10 week trading period shows HLG is really getting some great traction with sales growth. Implications going forward for even higher dividends or ability to reinvest even more quickly in the roll out of their new euro style stores driving even more sales growth....? Hmmmm.

Posted 1 December 2017 looking at first seven weeks v subsequent ten weeks sales growth.
Can't resist fiddling with my steam powered abacus to speculate on how estimated sales in the last 11 days or so have gone, (assuming the 16% sales growth for the period to date includes trading up to and including 11 December 2017, assumes speech notes were prepared yesterday and includes very latest sales data right up to the preceding day).

To move the needle by 1% for the 18 weeks 4 days period to 11 December, (from 15% sales growth for the 17 weeks to 30 November) total group sales must now be ($4.6m week / 7 = $0.659m day) last year x 1.16 x 18.57 weeks = $99.37m from ~ $90m for the 17 weeks to 30/11/17. This suggests sales for the 11 days to 11 December may have been circa $9.37m or $0.852m a day up 29.3% on last years $0.657m per day.

My ancient steam powered abacus suggests to me there is real sales momentum behind the directors and CEO's enthusiasm and then there's their comments that gross profit margins are growing strongly...hmmm... one wonders if perhaps they already have a lot of confidence they can beat the suggested 50% profit growth quite comfortably ?

[winner69]

Impressive results and a stock I have owned in the past. But I am hesitant to buy at this level. Too much overhead from previous forays above $3.60 some time ago. Prefer to buy a dip below $3.30 but maybe I’ll miss out and we’ll never see that again.

The best time to buy recently was when the price inexplicably dipped to about $3.00 last September

Jeez that’s a 20% gain already ...plus that dividend that’s coming.

[percy]

Been this morning at the AGM, took notes and lost them (must have forgotten to depress the "save" button - maybe I should go back to paper & pencil).

However - the good news is anyway already public knowledge: NPAT predicted (if things keep going as they do in the first 16 weeks) "up 50% to last year", so from my side just some "subjective" observations.

Good atmosphere and quite full - the room took roughly 90 people (including board) and I estimate that about 75 to 80 have been there. Not many empty seats.

HLG came with its full board and most of its SMT. Initially surprised to see that many well dressed young man and woman in the AGM. My first thought (that they brought some models) was wrong. This was the senior management team! They certainly managed to implement diversity (age and gender) in their leadership team ... and yes, apparently it was all HLG apparel they were wearing ...

Never have seen in an AGM such a relaxed atmosphere - they just felt like a winning team having fun with each other.

Talked with several of the directors (and the CEO) - and there was a very optimistic outlook on both big markets (NZ and Australia). Sounds like that particularly the Australian Glassons team performed some miracles.

Asked what their key differentiator to Amazon was: They (HLG) specialise on one market segment and understand that really well. From memory the CEO said something like "Quality, offering the newest trend and first to deliver".

Interesting - they didn't really notice in their books the arrival and departure of TOP shop in Auckland (and H&M some other place) ... and some people on this thread got that excited about this competition!

Feeling after this AGM really good about my little investment into HGL - though, maybe I should have bought some more of their shares ;

Thanks for your agm comments.

[winner69]

Thanks BP for your meeting comments.

Sounds like little can go wrong in the next few years

Just like the last hundred years plus ....always meeting customers needs.

I remember 50 years ago my Mum bought me some long trousers for special occasions. Jeez they had wide legs and all my mates had more tapered ones. so without my Mum knowing I took them to the nice man at Hallensteins (known as HBs) in Cuba St and told him my story. He said Mums are stupid some times eh and fixed me up with a neat fair of ‘fashionable’ pants at no extra cost.

[Beagle]

Thanks for the annual meeting feedback BP. Sounds good. Will go to the next one if its in Auckland.
This company looks very very attractive. The Glassons website is a very accurate depiction of how attractive an investment in this company is
Hard to believe the SP doesn't start with a "4" already but I suspect patience will be very well rewarded
Quick update on the fundamentals lest we get carried away with positive sentiment lol
Assuming $14m for the first half and a conservative 11m for the second half that's $25m / 59.65m shares = 42 cps.
At today's closing price of $3.62 that puts them on a current year PE of just 362/42 = just 8.6.
Cyclical company trading at the peak or is there more to this than meets the eye and growth opportunities are very good in Australia and N.Z. and this is still very cheap
indeed ? Goes without saying I subscribe to the latter school of thought.

[winner69]

HLG have world class stock management. Stock turns are well over 5 times a year (Kathmandu struggle to get to 2)

With sales booming as they are I was wondering if they would have enough stock to see them through.

So pleased to hear from CEO - Current stock levels are in line with expectations and will allow us to achieve our goals over the busy Christmas season.

Wow - their stock turns must be getting even better.

So all honky dory - maybe even $27m npat this year

As a matter of interest for every dollars worth of stock they held in F17 they generated $7 of Gross Margin over the year. This year be $8 - thats some return on investment eh

[Baa_Baa]

HLG have world class stock management. Stock turns are well over 5 times a year (Kathmandu struggle to get to 2)

With sales booming as they are I was wondering if they would have enough stock to see them through.

So pleased to hear from CEO - Current stock levels are in line with expectations and will allow us to achieve our goals over the busy Christmas season.

Wow - their stock turns must be getting even better.

So all honky dory - maybe even $27m npat this year

As a matter of interest for every dollars worth of stock they held in F17 they generated $7 of Gross Margin over the year. This year be $8 - thats some return on investment eh

Ok, feeling a bit thick here. Can you explain how a company can achieve 700% gross margin on the $ value of stock held? Are you saying the product costs the company $1 to source from China and they successfully sell it for $8 here in NZ making $7 gross profit (on average)?