HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[h2so4]

In the future if the economy tanked and costs increased we could look back in hindsight and say we purchased a business that was at the top of it's cycle.
But for now I do like this well run customer focused growing company.

[Beagle]

Totally agree Jeremy.Two summers ago HLG posted NPAT of 6.8 million ( one of their worst 6 month periods) , last summer was 9.2 million (this was their best 6 months over the last 5 years). This summer might be 9.2*1.5=13.8 million. It appears the researcher has used the wrong year to base his work on. Maybe he got his intel off the ASB website where they haven't added last year's figures yet. Is that too arrogant of me to think? What I really like about this company is that , with a big of work, the reports are very simple and formattic.

So simple to understand it makes a mockery of the old saying "you can't judge a book by its cover". All one needs to do is have a look at how attractive the front cover of the annual report is, have a look at how attractive the Glassons website is www.glassons.co.nz and everything else is just as attractive... I tell ya this research stuff is very "hard work" lol Welcome to the forum

[oldtech]

Can't believe I was watching this on Monday and Tuesday, trying to decide whether to top up when it was under $3.40, and then letting my indecision get the better of me ...

I think I'll be waiting a while before it gets back to that level.

Is anybody buying at this level? I'm waiting to see if this is just a euphoric bounce, and hoping (against hope?) that the price will come back down a little so I can get in without feeling too bad.

[Arbroath]

Totally agree Jeremy.Two summers ago HLG posted NPAT of 6.8 million ( one of their worst 6 month periods) , last summer was 9.2 million (this was their best 6 months over the last 5 years). This summer might be 9.2*1.5=13.8 million. It appears the researcher has used the wrong year to base his work on. Maybe he got his intel off the ASB website where they haven't added last year's figures yet. Is that too arrogant of me to think? What I really like about this company is that , with a big of work, the reports are very simple and formattic.

Not arrogant Maverick. The quality of analysts is 'varied' shall we say. If this analyst has been reported correctly I'd venture to say he's an idiot, or at least ignorant of what he was being asked about.

I've always done my own homework forecasting HLG's performance and my model, which I admit I use relatively conservative inputs, is guessing c. $24m for FY18 or 40cps. The biggest impacts that could send them off track are weather and a falling NZD - as long as the weather is normalish (the cold starts in May etc) and the NZD stays above 68c then I'm pretty confident they'll make $24m+.

My rough valuation is 12 times 3-year average EPS, which with $24m for FY18, gives me $3.68 but they clearly look to be step-changing the business so am happy to hold for $4.00+ next year. We might be on the way back to $5.00 but theres some water to flow under the bridge yet and they need some ducks to continue lining up for that.

In the meantime enjoy the significant tax-paid dividends - 40cps is a 15% gross yield given they usually pay it all out.

[Beagle]

Can't believe I was watching this on Monday and Tuesday, trying to decide whether to top up when it was under $3.40, and then letting my indecision get the better of me ...

I think I'll be waiting a while before it gets back to that level.

Is anybody buying at this level? I'm waiting to see if this is just a euphoric bounce, and hoping (against hope?) that the price will come back down a little so I can get in without feeling too bad.

Sales last year grew by more than at any stage in the last five years. On top of that sales are growing dramatically faster this year. Have another read of yesterday's commentary by the CEO and Chairman. I would say your chances of a retracement down to the level you've suggested are very, very slim. I for one would be buying very keenly at $3.50 again like I was yesterday at the open.

[oldtech]

Thanks Beagle ... kicking myself at not topping up on Monday, but there you go.

Although I'm not expecting $3.40, yeah I was thinking in terms of $3.50 - $3.55 would be good buying ... $3.40 would have been even better ... ... there I go, kicking myself again.

I should have learned by now, I did the same a few weeks back when THL was down at $4.80, and missed out ... grr ...

[Beagle]

Can't fix the past mate, just invest for the future. Company doesn't have a dividend reinvestment scheme but I got to pondering after yesterday's update how many people might run their own reinvestment scheme with their forthcoming dividend next Monday...

[Raz]

Can't fix the past mate, just invest for the future. Company doesn't have a dividend reinvestment scheme but I got to pondering after yesterday's update how many people might run their own reinvestment scheme with their forthcoming dividend next Monday...

Happy where the share price is heading regardless :-)

If you cannot see any points in the AR report you have your blinkers on :-)

Great we are back to April SP...

[percy]

Even better we are now ahead of April's high of $3.65,as the sp is currently $3.72,as the momentum gains traction.

[Beagle]

Happy where the share price is heading regardless :-)

If you cannot see any points in the AR report you have your blinkers on :-)

Great we are back to April SP...

I see plenty of positives and am very happy with the new CEO's report yesterday and very happy with their focus on digital advertising and expansion of Glassons in Australia, (which is a massive opportunity for them) is obviously going very well. Even the currency is back above 70 cents U.S.
Its not just the models that look attractive with this one mate. Looking forward to dividend day Monday 18th https://www.bing.com/images/search?q...62&FORM=IQFRBA