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  1. #1711
    Gnawing on Bones Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeremyALD View Post
    I think this year is set to be a cracker Winner. I'm not so sure about beyond that. The test will really be if they can grow again in FY19. If they can they are definitely onto something. Historically their profit has swung between 13m and 18m with a few years in the early 20s. They have not delivered multiple of years of growth for a long time (hence its been seen as a solid dividend player, rather than a growth play). Glassons AU has consistently been a poor performer with a small negative or positive NPAT contribution so if they get that firing they'll naturally pick up NPAT range consistently in future. Australia is definitely where the growth opportunities are in terms of profitability. NZ will continue to perform, but historically profit has swung around and I see that will continue to some degree in future years dependant on the economy and the weather.

    What excited me about the ASM is there was a lot of talk about GROWTH. I haven't heard that from Hallensteins Glassons in a while. Australia seems to be going really well and expanding the Hallensteins brand could be a positive play. It was great to hear their Melbourne Central store is going well above expectations. Melbourne is very hip so it shows they're getting their styling right.

    Storm remains disappointing and I think they need to make a decision about that one at some point. It's never really made a significant contribution and the brand is not all that strong.

    So all in all you're probably sick of hearing from me on this thread but I do think it's pretty exciting. Wouldn't mind working for them myself
    Trust me on this mate, nobody gets sick of reading your well thought out and well balanced posts. I think you're being more than a little conservative about the future prospects but we need some balance to this thread and some conservatism is never a bad thing.
    Last edited by Beagle; Today at 08:00 AM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  2. #1712
    Senior Member
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    Sep 2016
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Trust me on this mate, nobody gets sick of reading your well thought out and well balanced posts. I think you're being more than a little conservative about the future prospects but we need some balance to this thread and some conservatism is never a bad thing.
    Thanks Beagle

    Tail of two stories here.....

    http://www.news.com.au/finance/busin...51a15148d570c5

  3. #1713
    Junior Member
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    Dec 2017
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    It was easy to load up on HLG in the low $3.oos. All you had to decide was whether Amazon was going to come over and eat HLG`s lunch, or not. It seemed the analysts and Mr market had decided it was going to which suppressed the price nicely for buying . This made plenty of upside or at least high % dividend returns to us few who think Amazon wont be that bad (at least to "on trend" apparel) ,if indeed, they come at all. In the meantime HLG have created a superb user friendly web platform that should give them pole position. Now we have a rerating of the stock that in about 1.5 weeks lifts it from the bargain basement it was to a more fairly based share price. My calculations place it at $4.25 by the end of this summer. From there the price will depend on the next winter experience. Last winter was 8.1 mill NPAT for 6 months. That is at the top end of a normal HLG winters but nothing like the latest 50% summer increase. So the question is.... what percentage of this summer result is the weather + currency and what percentage is due to revamped stores, online sales and well selected clothing style. I think anything up to $4.50 is good investing but above that has a bit of speculation added... for now. Mind you, like Beagle, Winner and Jeremy I`m thinking we are witnessing the early stages of a systemic change for the better with HLG.

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