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  1. #5911
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Jeez shareprice down to 710 .... and lucky it didn't close lower

    Hope the faithful aren't deserting the ship .....maybe waltzing warning us that HLG is a true cyclical and a drop in share price is inevitable
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #5912
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    A few days HLG heading towards 8 bucks

    Last few days heading sub 7 bucks

    Suppose that is just part of normal share market behaviour

    No worries
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #5913
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    its a very vol stock going on past performance and that is why we sold 75 % at 6.10.

    moves of 50 cents or more are to be expected.

  4. #5914
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    A few days HLG heading towards 8 bucks

    Last few days heading sub 7 bucks

    Suppose that is just part of normal share market behaviour

    No worries
    Beggar all volume though yeh??

  5. #5915
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    Welcome back Mr B

  6. #5916
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    VWAP was $7.22 so no worries.

    HLG is the only BUY I have actioned this year so far which speaks for itself on what I think has the best prospects for near term price appreciation.
    WHS currently trading on 23 times FY20's covid affected earnings and BGR on 18.8 times. Mid point of those is 20.9 x last years HLG covid affected earnings of 46.6 cps = $9.74.
    Hard to see how current year eps is not going to be more than 60 cps so current year PE is only 12, (quite possibly less) which is very cheap considering the demonstrated growth in the Glassons brand.
    How much of this is catch up sales is a difficult question but I think travel restrictions and people's propensity to spend on retail in lieu of travel is something that will endure well into 2022. The tailwind effects of once in a generation ultra low interest rates could give retail quite a boost for many, many years.

    Tailwinds will also be felt from the high $Kiwi. I also really like the speed of growth in online sales and their existing penetration in that regard is well advanced of its above mentioned peers. Another thing people aren't talking about is that overseas retailers like Amazon are now having to charge GST on goods sold to Kiwi customers so we now finally have a level playing field for HLG. Further, its clear they are building out their online offer with an international website.

    Very strong balance sheet and I agree with Winner's recent observation that their cash on hand at the time of next reporting could be close to $1 per share as they take a cautious approach with capex and store roll-out.
    If they're going to be earning north of 60 cps and they already have ~ $1 a share in cash one wonders if the prospects for fully imputed dividends aren't north of 50 cps ~ (70 cos gross) ?

    Where else can you earn 10% gross dividend yield, possibly more with exciting growth prospects on a current year PE of just 12 ?, (Current year PE may be less than this)

    What happens to the share price when we get NZX50 inclusion or some broker analysts wake up and smell the coffee and start covering this, or perhaps both these things ?

    Talk of $10+ is not silly pipe dreams stuff, but in fact is quite plausible within the next year or two in my opinion.

    Thanks to so many of you for the warm welcome back, much appreciated. I have taken the opportunity today to share much of my musings over the holidays. Hopefully its helpful to some of you good folks. Best wishes to all for a very prosperous 2021 !
    Last edited by Beagle; 18-01-2021 at 06:52 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #5917
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post

    Talk of $10+ is not silly pipe dreams stuff.

    Thanks to so many of you for the warm welcome back, much appreciated. I have taken the opportunity today to share much of my musings over the holidays. Hopefully its helpful to some of you good folks. Best wishes to all for a very prosperous 2021 !
    Best wishes to you Beagle and I hope you enjoyed your holidays. I certainly felt the need for a break and feel well refreshed, and even perhaps 'energised' to quote a power co CEO.

    My murky crystal ball predicts 8.40 is the top but a blow off to 9 I guess can fit within that picture. Somewhere around that level there will be talk of a global Glasson and Hallenstein hegemony so that might be an indicator to bow out .

    In the meantime after all the holiday goodness I'll relax in my green trackies from the menswear dept they probably colour them with green dye from all the greenbacks they have stashed huh?
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  8. #5918
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    Its worth 12 at least if interest rates are at near zero.

    As for dye the pollution of the great rivers in India are bad enough that the next wave of plagues could come from anywhere.

  9. #5919
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    NZ Electronic Card spend for December data out today (Stats NZ)

    Total retail up a healthy 3.5% from Dec19 month

    But apparel up a whopping 8.2% on pcp

    Punters buying clothes big time again

    Glassons etc gain market share so sales up even more
    Last edited by winner69; 19-01-2021 at 11:57 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #5920
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    My Daughters tell me they for the last 2 years can get most of what they want from HLG, they used to spend their money with Asos and Urban Outfitters. They tell me the buyers are now much better than before.

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