HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[Greekwatchdog]

Latest from For Bar on Index Positions below.


Jostling for Position


S&P DJI have confirmed that no constituent changes will be made to the benchmark indices at the June 2021 quarterly
index review. There are a number of changes to index shares and Float Adjustment Weighting Factors (AWF). Changes are
effective close of market, Friday, 18 June 2021.
No constituent changes
As expected, the S&P/NZX index review for June 2021 contained no constituent changes for the benchmark indices. We do not
foresee any constituent changes in the near to medium term.
The Warehouse (WHS) has jumped up the ranks in our inclusion/exclusion index model, following the sell down of 31.6m shares by
Foodstuffs. However, at a current six month average free float market cap of $366m, it still remains below the automatic inclusion
level of >$440m. Assuming liquidity conditions are met, when we roll forward prices using a five-day average we see the following
order of eligibility for non index members: ERD ($400m), WHS ($374m) & HLG ($352m) and an automatic inclusion level of >$429m.
Under this scenario, THL ($311m), NPH ($306m) & SKT ($295m) are the lowest ranked index members for the benchmark 50 indices,
however, they remain safe, sitting above the automatic exclusion level of $279m. Note, we have assumed the takeover of TLT is
completed under this scenario.
Figure 1. June 2021 Review: Confirmed changes
Index Enter Exit Expected Weight (rank)
S&P/NZX 10 no changes
S&P/NZX 20 no changes
S&P/NZX 50 no changes
S&P/NZX 50 Portfolio no changes
Source: Forsyth Barr analysis, S&P DJI
Re-weighting changes
As with each quarterly review, index shares, Investible Weighting Factors (IWFs) and AWFs are also updated. The companies with the
largest re-weightings are presented in Figure 2.
Figure 2. June 2021 Review: Major re-weighting changes expected
Index Current Weight Expected Weight Total Change
S&P/NZX50 Index
OCA 0.71% 0.80% +0.09%
S&P/NZX 50 Portfolio Index
ATM 3.12% 4.45% +1.33%
RYM 4.13% 5.05% +0.93%
AIA 5.18% 4.88% -0.30%
IFT 5.18% 4.86% -0.32%
MFT 5.36% 4.86% -0.50%
FBU 5.59% 4.89% -0.70%
CEN 5.83% 5.10% -0.73%

[Jantar]

I don't believe anyone has been betting on HLG moving onto the index. There has been no real movement in price for around 2 months, and I have never seen the bolinger bands so close together.

[Habits]

I put in an order to sell 2000 HLG. So far 820 have sold and 1180 still waiting to sell. Of the sold ones gone through so far, there was one lot of 371 shares, one lot of 269 shares, 3 lots of 27 shares, 2 lots of 14 shares, 1 lot of 11, 3 lots of 7, 1 lot of 6, 2 lots of 4, 3 lots of 3 shares, 4 lots of 2 shares and 6 lots of 1 shares. So far that is 27 lines on my bank statement and still 1180 to trade. My end of month statements are 15 to 20 pages ASB Securities

I dont buy or sell very much. But when I do my email inbox is chocka full of trade notifications from ASB securities. Surely they must realise how dumb this is when they clog up someones inbox. Is there any way to stop it?

[Beagle]

I don't believe anyone has been betting on HLG moving onto the index. There has been no real movement in price for around 2 months, and I have never seen the bolinger bands so close together.

I am holding long term so this is only of academic interest but something has to give sooner or later. Possibly worth noting that if they're making about $37m after tax this year that's 62 cps in earnings so every month that ticks by the shares are intrinsically worth about 5 cents per share more. FY21 Forward PE at $7.37 on 62 cps is only 11.9 and I think that's outstanding value given their strong track record of growth with Glassons in Australia. I think they can do about 55 cps in fully imputed dividends for FY22 so that's 55 / 0.72 = 76.4 cps gross so that gives us a prospective gross yield for FY22 of 76.4 / 737 = 10.4%

[Beagle]

Double trouble again lol

[Panda-NZ-]

IF NZD is expected the increase as the banks seem to forecast then HLG is in a good place.


Lol at this snippet from ASB:

Strengthening labour market conditions will support stronger income growth and household spending appetites. The risk is stronger incomes are spent on holidays offshore as borders gradually open, rather than in NZ.

https://www.asb.co.nz/content/dam/as...ate-june21.pdf

can't people have a VR experience instead? our economic gains spent on more holidays.

[BlackPeter]

I dont buy or sell very much. But when I do my email inbox is chocka full of trade notifications from ASB securities. Surely they must realise how dumb this is when they clog up someones inbox. Is there any way to stop it?

Easy - change over to Direct Broking. They send you only one contract per order and day, no matter how many partial sales or buys they had to do to complete your order

[winner69]

I am holding long term so this is only of academic interest but something has to give sooner or later. Possibly worth noting that if they're making about $37m after tax this year that's 62 cps in earnings so every month that ticks by the shares are intrinsically worth about 5 cents per share more. FY21 Forward PE at $7.37 on 62 cps is only 11.9 and I think that's outstanding value given their strong track record of growth with Glassons in Australia. I think they can do about 55 cps in fully imputed dividends for FY22 so that's 55 / 0.72 = 76.4 cps gross so that gives us a prospective gross yield for FY22 of 76.4 / 737 = 10.4%

Jeez ...only $37m profit this year

Should be more shouldn’t it now they’ve fixed their margin problem and apparently selling heaps more than expected.

[Waltzing]

WELL MR B is an accountant. It perfectly understandable for MR B to be conservative in base calculations as it set the floor and what a fabulous floor it is when your nose is so close to the ground sniffing out bowls full of dividends.

[winner69]

WELL MR B is an accountant. It perfectly understandable for MR B to be conservative in base calculations as it set the floor and what a fabulous floor it is when your nose is so close to the ground sniffing out bowls full of dividends.

He probably learnt to be super conservative about HLG after his disappointment with their H1 result ...he (and me) got that a bit wrong....we were ‘too bullish ‘ and they disappointed