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  1. #4231
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    obvs HLG do something different to all those failures

    Only two weeks ago or less they advised you that Group sales for the six months to 1 February 2020 were $160.27 million, an increase of 5.7% over the corresponding period last year ($151.66 million) with a Net profit after tax of $15.44 million,
    that's nearly 25c per share earnings in six months. So why you comparing them with belly up businesses.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  2. #4232
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    No real comparison really to those other ones, which turned belly up

    Knowing the Rag Trade very well, I would say HLG are very respected & astute operators
    Their financials reflect a solid very well run operation, with a sound balance sheet &
    long history of sound earnings & dividend history

    Aside from seasonal working capital requirements & perhaps the odd extraordinary event,
    how many other Operators are there in Retail with little or no external debt ?

    I would be more concerned with KMD even after their recent Cap Raise, as the market
    seems to be suggesting in pricing even carrying through to BGP as a diluted stakeholder
    Last edited by nztx; 10-04-2020 at 02:28 AM. Reason: add more
    ... the fine art of sniffing out debits & credits hidden under the carpet can pay dividends ...

  3. #4233
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    HLG will get through this okay but no way are they worth anywhere near the closing price on Thursday in my opinion. Overpriced by at least $1.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  4. #4234
    Investor / Wizard / Mall Santa Pricey's Avatar
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    Just saying, retail is tough. Customers are fickle. You are braver than me.
    "His loyalty couldn't be bought at any price; but it could be rented remarkably cheaply."

  5. #4235
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pricey View Post
    Just saying, retail is tough. Customers are fickle. You are braver than me.

    For sure 'Retail is tough & Customers are fickle'

    but HLG have a long proud track record of cracking the market both here in Aussie (even tougher)
    in a backdrop of others in the game falling over

    Who knows, with things awash in Govt injected Ca$h & in places nowhere to spend aside from Essentials, it wouldn't
    surprise if some Retailers (HLG BGP & TWH etc) didn't have some bumper trading weeks when things reopen
    to make up for weeks closed..
    Last edited by nztx; 10-04-2020 at 09:56 PM. Reason: add more
    ... the fine art of sniffing out debits & credits hidden under the carpet can pay dividends ...

  6. #4236
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    Quote Originally Posted by nztx View Post
    For sure 'Retail is tough & Customers are fickle'

    but HLG have a long proud track record of cracking the market both here in Aussie (even tougher)
    in a backdrop of others in the game falling over

    Who knows, with things awash in Govt injected Ca$h & in places nowhere to spend aside from Essentials, it wouldn't
    surprise if some Retailers (HLG BGP & TWH etc) didn't have some bumper trading weeks when things reopen
    to make up for weeks closed..
    Would HLG be one of the first stores on your shopping list once normality returns. Some estimates saying clothing has taken a 40% fall in AUS fairly steep decline.........

  7. #4237
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    Quote Originally Posted by dreamcatcher View Post
    Would HLG be one of the first stores on your shopping list once normality returns. Some estimates saying clothing has taken a 40% fall in AUS fairly steep decline.........

    HLG are near the top of my list to add further

    I note Beagle's earlier very good comment that they may be overpriced, however their track record
    with sound financials appears better than others. No Apr 20 Dividend is a small sacrifice to secure further
    as the market seems to concur.

    Winter 20 Indent/Season may be curry or affected to a degree, but beyond that with reopening they should rebound


    I remember looking closely at HLG back 2-3 years ago at around $3 levels, but never moved at the time

    I regard WHS HGH OCA MET MHJ ANZ & WBC as possible value/rebound stocks for the future
    along with a further list of 'punts' which may deliver quite well
    Last edited by nztx; 10-04-2020 at 11:25 PM. Reason: add more
    ... the fine art of sniffing out debits & credits hidden under the carpet can pay dividends ...

  8. #4238
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    Quote Originally Posted by nztx View Post
    HLG are near the top of my list to add further

    I note Beagle's earlier very good comment that they may be overpriced, however their track record
    with sound financials appears better than others. No Apr 20 Dividend is a small sacrifice to secure further
    as the market seems to concur.

    Winter 20 Indent/Season may be curry or affected to a degree, but beyond that with reopening they should rebound


    I remember looking closely at HLG back 2-3 years ago at around $3 levels, but never moved at the time

    I regard WHS HGH OCA MET MHJ ANZ & WBC as possible value/rebound stocks for the future
    along with a further list of 'punts' which may deliver quite well
    MHJ only has a 32M dollar debt.
    Say 200k per shop
    Mmm not too bad I suppose but need to get back to work soonish...

  9. #4239
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    Quote Originally Posted by clearasmud View Post
    MHJ only has a 32M dollar debt.
    Say 200k per shop
    Mmm not too bad I suppose but need to get back to work soonish...
    probably in the wrong thread...
    but IMO MHJ possibly oversold & punished
    Deferred Mar 2020 dividend out to Sep 2020 is not as draconian as some other companies either
    I know where MHJ were before Covid 19 and before that rise up to that point too
    Last edited by nztx; 11-04-2020 at 12:21 AM. Reason: add more
    ... the fine art of sniffing out debits & credits hidden under the carpet can pay dividends ...

  10. #4240
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    the bounce was highly predictable ( maybe not the size ) at 1.80 it was way oversold ( probably over bounced now but looked like someone was agressively pushing the price up ). I still stick to my view for each % decline in sales the need to raise cash becomes more important. the no dividend policy i would imagine stays in place all year to cover the lease obligations. staff culling will take place as well to some degree along with inventory sell down if possible to raise cash. But as a retailer you can only cut so much and the fixed costs will bite you. So my pick raise some bank debt or cash issue?

    In the US cpi announced this week apparel prices dropped 2%
    Last edited by bull....; 11-04-2020 at 09:22 AM.
    bull

  11. #4241
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    I'm seeing HLG adds everywhere online right now, this will be emphasised because I opened one up to take a look which always results in more but hopefully they're selling a bit online.

    I've certainly got a lot more spare $$ in the bank account due to everything being shut so perhaps I will get some new clothes.

  12. #4242
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    Good reason to be very cautious with retail stocks, especially apparel with operations on both sides of the Tasman. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...f=recommended\

    We also shouldn't overlook the possibility that when lockdown restrictions are lifted in N.Z. we could see a spike in numbers and them have to revert to lockdown again, and again. I have always maintained that most people want to try clothes on for fit and to feel the fabric before buying. Sure their online sales will go up, but its not going to be a panacea for all their wows by any stretch of the imagination. I maintain my view that the bounce on this has been substantially overdone.

    Huge amount of water to go under the bridge before retail looks anything like what it did before Covid 19.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  13. #4243
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    Glassons target market don't necessary think that way Beagle. Young females I know are very happy to order stuff online then send it back if they don't like it, ASOS are hugely successful with this business model. I think men are more likely to want to buy clothes in a physical store though.

    Agree that retail is in for tough times, I think fair value of HLG is around $3.50 at the moment based on a simple DCF model and that includes them making a loss this year. If they don't make a loss or profit recovers more quickly than I anticipated fair value would be much higher.
    Last edited by James108; 12-04-2020 at 04:43 PM.

  14. #4244

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    Quote Originally Posted by allfromacell View Post
    I'm seeing HLG adds everywhere online right now, this will be emphasised because I opened one up to take a look which always results in more but hopefully they're selling a bit online.

    I've certainly got a lot more spare $$ in the bank account due to everything being shut so perhaps I will get some new clothes.
    Probably because google knows you have been looking in this thread.

  15. #4245
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    Quote Originally Posted by lissica View Post
    Probably because google knows you have been looking in this thread.
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