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  1. #2991
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Stats NZ reports Electronic Card Spend in Apparel sector for December month was 4.4% DOWN on pcp ....hmm

    Interesting comment on the numbers was this bit -

    “Spending on fuel also fell sharply in December, but those savings at the pump don’t appear to have leaked across to other retail industries,” Ms Chapman said.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #2992
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Stats NZ reports Electronic Card Spend in Apparel sector for December month was 4.4% DOWN on pcp ....hmm

    Interesting comment on the numbers was this bit -

    “Spending on fuel also fell sharply in December, but those savings at the pump don’t appear to have leaked across to other retail industries,” Ms Chapman said.
    Ouch...not encouraging is it ! No wonder KMD who were the last to most recently update had such a shocker update. Guess who's next...
    Betcha fuel volumes were up, (good for ZEL) as prices dropped so the ticket clippers including the Govt will be happy..oh wait, their GST take will have reduced on fuel, how sad, never mind
    Last edited by Beagle; 16-01-2019 at 02:29 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  3. #2993
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    Could the struggling retail sector be the banks' next big problem? The RBA thinks so.
    "One risk is that the changing retail environment might lead to store closures or insolvencies of domestic bricks-and-mortar retailers," the RBA paper argued. "This could result in higher vacancy rates at shopping centres and make it harder for shopping centre owners to meet their debt obligations. In turn, this could have implications for banks' asset quality."
    CBA and Westpac total loan books are almost 70 residential mortgages, ANZ and NAB are a bit under 60 per cent. Commercial real estate accounts for between 6-to-10 per cent of the big banks' loan books, around half of which is retail.
    Westpac nearly blew itself up in 1992 with a 40 per cent exposure to commercial real estate. More than 4 per cent of its loans were impaired and it needed an emergency recapitalisation to keep its doors open.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-...oblem/10294550

  4. #2994
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    From another forum. Wonder what ‘challenging’ really means for Glassons?. Group earnings growth driven out of Australia these days ....hmmm

    Any from that forum -



    News isnt any better on the other side of the Tasman -

    "Shoppertrak, an analytical tool widely used in the retail sector, particularly by shopping centre landlords, showed foot traffic in the last two weeks of 2018 was down 15 per cent and 23 per cent respectively.
    “I have been working in the retail space for 20 years now, and I can’t ever remember those sorts of numbers for Christmas,’’ Mr Stewart told The Australian… the biggest two weeks of Australia’s retail calendar just had a huge air swing at Christmas and Boxing Day trading”…
    “Let’s be clear: for the first time in 20 years, many landlords are seriously nervous about what is going on”… He has sounded the alarm that with a poor Christmas many retailers could face a liquidity crisis."
    Last edited by winner69; 17-01-2019 at 09:56 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #2995
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    I read the whole article and it is quite grim reading...I think for HLG it clearly is a short-term negative buy we don't yet know the extent. Remember HLG is relatively ungeared (no bank debt just lease commitments) and has proven it can weather storms in the past. It's like a game of survivor in retail - outwit, outlast etc.

    Might be a good opportunity to buy HLG again this year towards $3.00-3.50...I've dipped my toes back in around $4 only for a few.



    News isnt any better on the other side of the Tasman -

    "Shoppertrak, an analytical tool widely used in the retail sector, particularly by shopping centre landlords, showed foot traffic in the last two weeks of 2018 was down 15 per cent and 23 per cent respectively.
    “I have been working in the retail space for 20 years now, and I can’t ever remember those sorts of numbers for Christmas,’’ Mr Stewart told The Australian… the biggest two weeks of Australia’s retail calendar just had a huge air swing at Christmas and Boxing Day trading”…
    “Let’s be clear: for the first time in 20 years, many landlords are seriously nervous about what is going on”… He has sounded the alarm that with a poor Christmas many retailers could face a liquidity crisis."[/QUOTE]

  6. #2996
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    I read the whole article and it is quite grim reading...I think for HLG it clearly is a short-term negative buy we don't yet know the extent. Remember HLG is relatively ungeared (no bank debt just lease commitments) and has proven it can weather storms in the past. It's like a game of survivor in retail - outwit, outlast etc.

    Might be a good opportunity to buy HLG again this year towards $3.00-3.50...I've dipped my toes back in around $4 only for a few.
    This, too early at this stage in my opinion.
    P.S. Just slid under $4 to $3.99. Can't say I am surprised. With retail the way it is I suspect this will have a mid 3 handle before very long.
    Last edited by Beagle; 17-01-2019 at 02:24 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #2997
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    Heard whispers today HLG are cutting budgets all around the shop, might be time to look at sum options other than flailing retailers

  8. #2998
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    Quote Originally Posted by ziptie View Post
    Heard whispers today HLG are cutting budgets all around the shop, might be time to look at sum options other than flailing retailers
    Great long term divvy paying hold, if it drops much below $4 I will buy more.

  9. #2999
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Great long term divvy paying hold, if it drops much below $4 I will buy more.


    Trust you Couta!

  10. #3000
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Great long term divvy paying hold, if it drops much below $4 I will buy more.
    Ditto, my average is currently $4.398 and any chance to acquire more of this great divvy-generating stock AND average down is very tempting.

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