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  1. #4141
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    Mall owners donít operate on standard ADLS leases so no generic escape/access clause as per other commercial property operators. No doubt the malls will offer concessions but you would imagine itís still a huge hit to HLG bottom line, whatís the monthly staff/lease liabilities at the moment ?

  2. #4142
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    I agree with beagle, I donít see why they would kill the golden goose because it isnít expected to lay an egg for a few months.

    Thanks for that info boysy have just googled that.

  3. #4143
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    I would think that Hallensteins and Glassons would be regarded as anchor tenants in a lot of malls and that owners would be keen to keep them. If concessions are necessary I'd expect to see some mutually beneficial solutions.

  4. #4144
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    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    I would think that Hallensteins and Glassons would be regarded as anchor tenants in a lot of malls and that owners would be keen to keep them. If concessions are necessary I'd expect to see some mutually beneficial solutions.
    Sorry, but I would have to completely disagree... I would be very surprised if Hallensteins and Glassons were considered anchor tenants in any mall/complex, so they would not be able to throw their weight around like a typical Farmers or The Warehouse of JB Hifi would... however there is likely to be 'somewhat' of a solution to help... whether it is mutually beneficial (aka both sides benefit the same) I am not too sure on either... I would think Hallensteins and Glassons would be very lucky if it was mutually beneficial.
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 30-03-2020 at 04:15 PM.

  5. #4145
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    Dito I would not call HGL an anchor tenant at all they are no supermarket or farmers or Kmart their floor area is modest in most malls compared to other retailers afterall. This could be different throughout the country but not the case in any Auckland malls .....

  6. #4146
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    They got a few million in the bank but that wonít last long

    Be a new experience for them talking to banks for a loan to tide them over
    ďJust consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.Ē

  7. #4147
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    They got a few million in the bank but that won’t last long

    Be a new experience for them talking to banks for a loan to tide them over
    At least they didn't pay it out in dividends...
    Banks might not like them too much, not because its personal, but because its retail... Smith City has that feel good, been around 100 years+ feel and yet don't seem to be getting alot of love from their bank.

    No worries, this time (or company) is different.
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 30-03-2020 at 04:48 PM.

  8. #4148
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    Quote Originally Posted by boysy View Post
    Dito I would not call HGL an anchor tenant at all they are no supermarket or farmers or Kmart their floor area is modest in most malls compared to other retailers afterall. This could be different throughout the country but not the case in any Auckland malls .....
    Okay, I'll substitute "valuable" for "anchor" which I realise is the term for the big supermarket/department store that takes up the big floorspace.


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    I'd say they are a valuable tenant in many malls in NZ as they have both a Hallensteins and a Glassons and would be paying quite a bit more per square metre than an anchor tenant like Farmers etc. So if I was a Kiwi Property exec for instance I'd want to retain a company with their track record because if they are going bust /leaving just have a think how many other vacancies they'd have in their malls, mainly because HLG operate a far more conservative business model. They will get some reductions/incentives to stay for sure...

  10. #4150
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    A macro trend that I think that comes out of this is that it'll be what starts to kill brick and mortar retail (if that hasnt started already).

    Those that'll be able to own the digital space as the main part of the customer experience will win in market share.

    Gut feeling is that HLG will manage the transition quite well, IMHO Farmers, Myer etc will go the way of the dinosaur....

  11. #4151
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    Thanks, Arbroath. That's what I meant and you have said it so much better!


  12. #4152
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    It blows my mind that this one is still trading at more than 50% above last week's low. Surely this stock is going to be hugely impacted by the unfolding events. People still in denial?

  13. #4153
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclical View Post
    It blows my mind that this one is still trading at more than 50% above last week's low. Surely this stock is going to be hugely impacted by the unfolding events. People still in denial?
    The stock price has also been hugely impacted, moreso than most. Where do You see fair value?

  14. #4154
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    Quote Originally Posted by James108 View Post
    The stock price has also been hugely impacted, moreso than most. Where do You see fair value?
    Somewhere closer to $2, but edging lower by the day. Let's face it, they have virtually zero income, but the outgoings are still there. The longer this event drags on for, the less relevant their seasonal stock becomes. The weaker dollar will do them no favours (but there may be a glut in the market for suppliers to offset this). A good portion of their target market is about to find themselves out of work. A large portion of their shareholders will be used to the nice regular dividends, which will disappear for a while. Will the minimum wage increase affect them? The only light at the end of the tunnel is that they are probably better placed to weather the storm than much of the competition (some of which will disappear) and maybe they can negotiate lower leasing costs. 2 years of pain?

  15. #4155
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclical View Post
    Somewhere closer to $2, but edging lower by the day. Let's face it, they have virtually zero income, but the outgoings are still there. The longer this event drags on for, the less relevant their seasonal stock becomes. The weaker dollar will do them no favours (but there may be a glut in the market for suppliers to offset this). A good portion of their target market is about to find themselves out of work. A large portion of their shareholders will be used to the nice regular dividends, which will disappear for a while. Will the minimum wage increase affect them? The only light at the end of the tunnel is that they are probably better placed to weather the storm than much of the competition (some of which will disappear) and maybe they can negotiate lower leasing costs. 2 years of pain?
    So to arrive at a fair value of close to $2/share what kind of losses are you forecasting? I checked my model and to arrive at a valuation close to $2/share earnings would look something like a $30m loss this year, break even next year and long term average EPS of 28c/share (down from long term average 35c/share and recent earnings of 40+c/share).

    Personally that seems slightly pessimistic to me. Maybe useful as part of a downside risk valuation.
    Last edited by James108; 02-04-2020 at 03:21 PM.

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