HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[winner69]

Reckon i’ll Be OK ...back to 460 by days end

[winner69]

Couts ...did you buy my shares?

I think retail in NZ is going to go through a tough period for rest of the year and I wouldn’t entirely rely on Aussie to pull HLG through.

[RupertBear]

Couts ...did you buy my shares?

I think retail in NZ is going to go through a tough period for rest of the year and I wouldn’t entirely rely on Aussie to pull HLG through.

I decided to jump ship and stop the bleeding before it got any worse....my own fault for buying in at the top....

[BlackPeter]

I decided to jump ship and stop the bleeding before it got any worse....my own fault for buying in at the top....

Don't blame yourself ... buying at the top is one of these things everybody can see so much better with 20/20 hindsight ;

[Raz]

Couts ...did you buy my shares?

I think retail in NZ is going to go through a tough period for rest of the year and I wouldn’t entirely rely on Aussie to pull HLG through.

You position on this one is as changeable as the wind. BP good to see you comments.

[Beagle]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...cid=spartandhp

Looks like we're in for a real winter this year...so winter stock should be flying out the doors.

[percy]

Weakening NZ$ against US$ will affect HLG's margins.
Seem to remember last weakness Noodles worked out it would cost HLG $10mil.
His comments would be interesting now.

[Beagle]

More a case of $US strength. $US index is very high. I think management will be working hard to mitigate this.

[winner69]

Maybe some correlation between currency and EBITDA margin. This seems to have broken down in the last couple of years. Brokers are forecasting a 14% margins for this year. I think management will have to be at the top of their game to fight against the currency tide.

Year	NZDUSD	EBITDA Margin	Change in Currency	Change in EBITDA Margin	Notes
2006	0.649732	15.49%
2007	0.736172	17.74%	13.30%	14.53%
2008	0.714949	14.32%	-2.88%	-19.28%
2009	0.635232	11.95%	-11.15%	-16.55%	Recession
2010	0.721623	13.96%	13.60%	16.82%
2011	0.792322	14.00%	9.80%	0.29%
2012	0.810275	15.58%	2.27%	11.29%	Included insurance payout
2013	0.8203	14.79%	1.24%	-5.07%	Management Blamed late start to winter
2014	0.8306	13.06%	1.26%	-11.70%	Management admitted poor product mix
2015	0.740516	14.31%	-10.85%	9.59%	Broker forecasts
2016	0.68		-8.17%

Percy mentioned noodles analysis on how fx impacts HLG margins

That was his post from July 2015

[McGinty]

Dear HLG

Thank-you for the great ride the last 5 months, I have enjoyed this run but must leave you for a while as my funds are taking a break from the market.
Today's break of the 50 SMA was my signal to sell the remaining parcel I held (nothing personal, just investing to my plan).
I look forward to continuing our previous arrangement (good dividends and share price appreciation) as some stage in the future (possibly when to global markets aren't as wobbly and the chart signals another good entry)

Best,
McGinty

Interesting to revisit a stock one month later.

Upon retesting the 50 SMA twice HLG was unable to close back above it, which would have been another opportunity (signal) to sell.

Now that the $4.45 support is broken the stock could fall to next support levels at $4.30 and $4.00. It seems that the market is just repeating last year's 'Winter' sentiment which caused the price to slide 20% after going ex-div.

I would like to see the $4.00 support hold (20% from this years cum-div price)

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