HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[percy]

I don't invest based on currency but rather proven long term fundamentals, the growth potential of the company, it's proven long term dividend payment history and the quality of it's top 20 shareholders.

Well you are in for a very nastie surprise should the NZ $ fall as projected.

[peat]

I think I read the NZ $ is expected to weaken.

I agree with this in respect of the Aussie dollar. Here we are heading for 1.09 Aud/NZD imo.

But vs USD I would expect it to strengthen to as much as .71 or .72 (with a daily chart perspective so , say a 3-6 month time frame) before a serious bear reasserts itself.

USD fell sharply against CAD last night and thats a commodity currency as we are.



I don't deny that forecasting currencies is risky and prone to failure though lol

[percy]

"Kiwibank economists say there's a 40% chance the Reserve Bank might have to continue cutting interest rates next year,while they see the NZ $ possibly dropping to US 50 cents."
Article was written on 3rd Apri; by David Hargreaves.

[winner69]

I agree with this in respect of the Aussie dollar. Here we are heading for 1.09 Aud/NZD imo.

Isn’t that good for HLG?

[pg0220]

Isn’t that good for HLG?

Weaker NZD against AUD should be always good for HLG.... correct me if I am wrong.

[macduffy]

Weaker NZD against AUD should be always good for HLG.... correct me if I am wrong.

Insofar as profits in AUD would translate into higher NZD amounts, yes. Presumably, HLG buys mostly in USD and doesn't buy any meaningful volumes of stock priced in AUD.

[Beagle]

"Kiwibank economists say there's a 40% chance the Reserve Bank might have to continue cutting interest rates next year,while they see the NZ $ possibly dropping to US 50 cents."
Article was written on 3rd Apri; by David Hargreaves.

What do the BNZ, ANZ, Westpac and other economists say about the long term prognosis ? Probably a very wide variance between them and all about as reliable as asking today what the weather forecast is going to be for 9 April 2020 lol

[percy]

It is what The Reserve Bank of NZ does that matters.
They lower interest rates, then Kiwibank economists may be proved correct.
A great deal depends on where you see interest rates.
I now have a very large position in a Kiwi exporter,thereby remaining "well positioned."

[couta1]

What do the BNZ, ANZ, Westpac and other economists say about the long term prognosis ? Probably a very wide variance between them and all about as reliable as asking today what the weather forecast is going to be for 9 April 2020 lol

I'm not concerned about all this guess work, HLG and ATM have been my best performing stocks by the length of a milk tanker wearing a bikini, all the others have been dogs by comparison.

[percy]

I'm not concerned about all this guess work, HLG and ATM have been my best performing stocks by the length of a milk tanker wearing a bikini, all the others have been dogs by comparison.

I would think holding ATM, would give you a good currency hedge against your HLG holding,meaning you also remain "well positioned."
An exporter and an importer.