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24-03-2020, 08:30 AM
#4101
Member
Originally Posted by ratkin
Will be charity shops full of clothes when this thing finishes. I buy most my clothes from charity shops, and they very popular, will be more so when this is over.
Why will there be more?
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24-03-2020, 08:52 AM
#4102
Originally Posted by Pipi
Why will there be more?
It's prtetty grim , but when people die , in a lot of cases they call the sallies etc to come and take it all away .... ( sadly speaking from experience )
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24-03-2020, 08:56 AM
#4103
Originally Posted by bull....
I'm afraid i dis - agree with some of your fine points and tend to agree with flugenbear more. Your trying to predict the unknown (virus and length of time its here)
do you really believe they will solve this in 4 weeks.?
You misread my post bull. I am not suggesting that this whole mess will be done in four weeks. I am thinking in terms of scenarios.
I am suggesting that four weeks is the absolute minimum disruption time, just one scenario. You then have to look at a more pessimistic (but realistic?) scenario of 4 months. Then look at what might happen if one year is the true lock down scenario. Then run each scenario as a separate analysis.
Finally assign a probability for each option you choose, and you will come out with a probability related result. This isn't an estimate of what will happen. In fact the answer you get will almost certainly not reflect what actually happens. But it does give you a result that is the best estimate you can get of the financial return you might expect.
Isnt hlg demographic the one to take the biggest job hit?
how high is cloths buying on your shopping list when your on the benefit?
If the garment you buy has a shelf life of twelve wears, then I do expect those customers to come back. They would have no choice. How many washes do those pre-ripped jeans last for anyway?
Are not malls in decline overseas as a means of people shopping, thats why mall owners are changing them to experiences so i doubt mall owners will care if a few shops close, there will be plenty to replace them in time.
You are talking about a long term trend here bull. This is a different issue to a pandemic event which has immediate effect. The future you paint here may turn out to be what happens. But short term, having people roll up for entertainment experiences to replace retail in the current climate isn't going to happen.
SNOOPY
Last edited by Snoopy; 24-03-2020 at 09:07 AM.
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
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24-03-2020, 08:59 AM
#4104
Originally Posted by Pipi
Why will there be more?
For the past few years they have been replacing retail stores on many main streets. When I visit Cornwall in the UK nearly every other shop is now a charity shop. The rents have got cheaper and they have moved in to replace more traditional retailers. Plus in any recession they will be busy, at the moment it is mainly he shabby sheek brigade that use them.
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24-03-2020, 09:05 AM
#4105
Originally Posted by Snoopy
You misread my post bull. I am not suggesting that this whole mess will be done in four weeks. I am thinking in terms of scenarios.
I am suggesting that four weeks is the absolute minimum disruption time, just one scenario. You then have to look at a more pessimistic (but realistic?) scenario of 4 months. Then look at what might happen if one year is the true lock down scenario. Then run each scenario as a separate analysis.
Finally assign a probability for each option you choose, and you will come out with a probability related result. This isn't an estimate of what will happen. In fact the answer you get will almost certainly not reflect what actually happens. But it does give you a result that is the best estimate you can get of the financial return you might expect.
You are talking about a long term trend here bull. This is a different issue to a pandemic event which has immediate effect. The future you paint here may turn out to be what happens. But short term, having people roll up for entertainment experiences to replace retail in the current climate isn't going to happen.
SNOOPY
fair point snoopy and totally like the way you think. analysis takes in all senarios.
It would be good to hear what your thoughts are about the demographics and there impact on hlg. mine are that they will lose jobs mostly young casuals and part timers etc a large number of these maybe hlg shoppers
Last edited by bull....; 24-03-2020 at 09:10 AM.
one step ahead of the herd
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24-03-2020, 09:21 AM
#4106
Originally Posted by winner69
They will do a strategic withdrawal from Oz I reckon
Going to be too hard and risky to make a buck over there
maybe. micheal hill just announced
In the interests of the health and safety of our people and our customers, Michael Hill today announces that it will suspend operations of its Australian store network for an indefinite period with immediate effect.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...480/319429.pdf
one step ahead of the herd
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24-03-2020, 11:06 AM
#4107
Originally Posted by winner69
They will do a strategic withdrawal from Oz I reckon
Going to be too hard and risky to make a buck over there
I don't think that is likely. But I'm sure lots of unlikely things are happening right now.
They have quite a few Glassons stores in Aus (32 Glassons, 4 Hallensteins) vs NZ which is 37 Glassons and 43 Hallensteins. The scale of their Aussie operation is bigger than you might realise.
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24-03-2020, 03:33 PM
#4108
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24-03-2020, 03:42 PM
#4109
Originally Posted by Bobdn
Wow, HLG surging today.
Good day for the losers today ...hope there's not too much regret from the panic sellers of last few days
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24-03-2020, 06:56 PM
#4110
Originally Posted by Beagle
Good to see your Beagle nose working properly again Snoop dog. I reckon you are bang on the money. The way the mall owners shares are also being pummelled KPG about 50%, they will wear a lot of the pain from this. No way it sheets home all to the retailers otherwise they will have ghost malls with no tenants left !
From
"https://www.nzx.com/announcements/350510" A non-price sensitive announcement apparently (from Kiwi Property Group).
"In light of the four-week closure of non-essential business ordered by the Government yesterday, Kiwi Property has identified a small number of tenants, relative to the total number of tenants in its portfolio, with a contractual right to suspend rental payments if they are unable or chose not to occupy or utilise their premises because of the Government order."
I wonder if HLG is one of those tenants?
"If all of the tenants exercise this right for the entire four-week shutdown period, the Company expects it would result in a drop in gross rental income of around $6 million, representing less than 3% of the prior year’s gross rental income."
Hang on, this is just for four weeks. If we extend to four months (17 weeks) then the gross income loss extends to:
$6m x ( 17/4 ) = $25.5m (13% of the prior year’s gross rental income)
And if we extend out for the whole year, then the rental loss adds up to:
$6m x 52/4 = $78m (39% of the prior year’s gross rental income)
Now what percentage of Kiwi Property Group assets are in shopping mall assets again?
But none of that is material. Right? (It might be material for HLG though!)
SNOOPY
Last edited by Snoopy; 24-03-2020 at 07:54 PM.
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
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