Cold wet and windy outside so a bit bored so pulled this together foir completeness sake
HLG NZ sales (exc Storm) as a share of Stats NZ Retail Card Spend data aligned to HLG reporting periods
Share is up so far this year ...thats good and hopefully a start of a new trend after being pretty flat for a while
Maverick ..as a heads up Card Spend down 1.5% this period .... incraesed share should pull HLG through
Nice work Winner. Looking at the table you've produced HLG recent success is based on increased market share. the card spend seems pretty consistent but irrelevant. The card spend is consistently up in H1 then down proportionally in H2. interestingly HLG slightly more often than not post bigger profits in the second half of each year, when the NZcard spend is down.
The huge recent profit boost in NZ recently aligns with a sudden quite significantly improved market share. The question is ,is the improved market share (therefore profit )sustainable?
-i personally think the online platform is a significant boost , sustainable and growing.
-the choice of offerings for their targeted custom ares has been spot on. sustainable under current directors and staff but potentially fickle.
-Decrease of competition. Sustainable.
So despite a massive boost to recent profitability, it seems to me this puppy is going to sustain its new profitable level into the medium term at least. Then the market will then have to accept it hasn't been a one off and rerate the share price up another dollar or so to justify those juicy divis.
Maverick - card spend is relevant as it gives one an idea of how the apparel market is going in NZ and as such how HLG NZ sales might be faring
HLG make generally make about the same or slightly less in H2 v H1
Drivers of changes in profitabilty are how much more stuff they sell, are margins getting better or worse and how much expenses (cost of doing business)are increasing
Table below shows these components of the change in profitability for each of the recent half years compared to the corresponding period the year before (ie H118 v H117 etc)
Interesting - at least I think so
Selling more is key but margins have both negative and positive impacts ....and the cost of doing business (more stores main driver) going up quite a lot eh. I'd watch that expense line in future.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
If anybody bothered to look at the table I posted yesterday they would have noticed that improved margins have made a pretty significant contribution to the growth in profit
Don’t expect such a large increase in H218 was H217 margins were pretty good.
Selling more and more stuff is the key from here on in ....while keeping expenses under control
Just saying
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Hallenstein Glasson store closed in Westcity Mall Henderson
Judging by the wide plethora of a certain type of shop, (can't name the type for risk of offending someone), that mall has been going slowly backwards for a while in my opinion.
Actually speaking of trends I was out at the new Silverdale mall the other day and noticed a Mazda shop in the mall...that's Mazda vehicles...who would have thought ?
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Kathmandu sales ahead of plan and margins also. Winter gear flying out the door. Unless you're living in Samoa or somewhere similar I think its pretty clear to all that we've got the makings of a bitterly cold winter this time, for perhaps the first time in the few years.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Originally Posted by winner69
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks