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  1. #2296
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    StatsNZ Retail Card Spend May

    Apparel down 3.8% v May 2017 following a 2.4% decline in April

    Indicates a 'softish' market for likes of Hallensteins and Glassons

    But no worries as both are killing the competition and making big market share gains
    Cheers for that W69. 2 winters ago the average 5 winter month apparel NZ spend was 307.8 mill and HLG made 6.9 mill NPAT, last winter the ave spend for the same 5 months was 306.4 mill (down 0.5%)and HLG made $8.1 mil NPAT (up 17.4%). The first winter month sales of this year is 304 mil so quite a bit down. As hungry as we all are for this kind of "heads up" there really isn't any correlation between NZ apparel spend and HLG`s NPAT. The only enemies I've observed for HLG as stated before are the USD and an unseasonably warm winter. Obviously no worries about the USD or NZ being too warm right now. Not sure about Melbourne`s temp but anything under 25c feels cold to them so should be ok.

  2. #2297
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maverick View Post
    Cheers for that W69. 2 winters ago the average 5 winter month apparel NZ spend was 307.8 mill and HLG made 6.9 mill NPAT, last winter the ave spend for the same 5 months was 306.4 mill (down 0.5%)and HLG made $8.1 mil NPAT (up 17.4%). The first winter month sales of this year is 304 mil so quite a bit down. As hungry as we all are for this kind of "heads up" there really isn't any correlation between NZ apparel spend and HLG`s NPAT. The only enemies I've observed for HLG as stated before are the USD and an unseasonably warm winter. Obviously no worries about the USD or NZ being too warm right now. Not sure about Melbourne`s temp but anything under 25c feels cold to them so should be ok.
    Correct Naverick but there is a very strong correlation between HLG H2 NZ sales and these card spend sales for the corresponding periods.

    In 2015, 2016 and 2017 HLG second half sales in NZ have basically grown in line with card spend. There ‘market share’ on this numbers has remained about 5.0%. Essentially if card spend is a de facto market size HLG stores haven’t grown market share.

    As you are no doubt aware npat is also impacted by other things like margins and expense. The npat figures you mention include these factors....as well as including what happened in Australia.

    So if anything the ‘heads up’ from that card spend data is that HLG NZ sales in H2 this year possibly might not be as robust as some think. Nothing else than that ....and top line growth is a key driver of profit growth

    Hopefully margins are still improving and expenses remain under control and Aussie is still booming .¿if so no worries about the expected record profit being reported
    The bullish case is always most compelling on the highs.

  3. #2298
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    Cold wet and windy outside so a bit bored so pulled this together foir completeness sake

    HLG NZ sales (exc Storm) as a share of Stats NZ Retail Card Spend data aligned to HLG reporting periods

    Share is up so far this year ...thats good and hopefully a start of a new trend after being pretty flat for a while


    Maverick ..as a heads up Card Spend down 1.5% this period .... incraesed share should pull HLG through
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    Last edited by winner69; 13-06-2018 at 05:13 PM.
    The bullish case is always most compelling on the highs.

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    A few months before the next whopper of a divie

    But NZD has dropped below USD69 cents and even lower in Australia. Could go lower still. Makes life a bit difficult for HLG

    Just saying
    The bullish case is always most compelling on the highs.

  5. #2300
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    NZD holding just above 69 cents according to ANZ securities this morning. Still in the multi year band of 69-74 cents and I am sure HLG use forward cover to buy their currency forward when it pops up from time to time and mange this extremely well, just like they manage the rest of their business.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  6. #2301
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Cold wet and windy outside so a bit bored so pulled this together foir completeness sake

    HLG NZ sales (exc Storm) as a share of Stats NZ Retail Card Spend data aligned to HLG reporting periods

    Share is up so far this year ...thats good and hopefully a start of a new trend after being pretty flat for a while


    Maverick ..as a heads up Card Spend down 1.5% this period .... incraesed share should pull HLG through
    Nice work Winner. Looking at the table you've produced HLG recent success is based on increased market share. the card spend seems pretty consistent but irrelevant. The card spend is consistently up in H1 then down proportionally in H2. interestingly HLG slightly more often than not post bigger profits in the second half of each year, when the NZcard spend is down.
    The huge recent profit boost in NZ recently aligns with a sudden quite significantly improved market share. The question is ,is the improved market share (therefore profit )sustainable?
    -i personally think the online platform is a significant boost , sustainable and growing.
    -the choice of offerings for their targeted custom ares has been spot on. sustainable under current directors and staff but potentially fickle.
    -Decrease of competition. Sustainable.

    So despite a massive boost to recent profitability, it seems to me this puppy is going to sustain its new profitable level into the medium term at least. Then the market will then have to accept it hasn't been a one off and rerate the share price up another dollar or so to justify those juicy divis.
    Last edited by Maverick; Yesterday at 10:44 PM.

  7. #2302
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    Maverick - card spend is relevant as it gives one an idea of how the apparel market is going in NZ and as such how HLG NZ sales might be faring

    HLG make generally make about the same or slightly less in H2 v H1

    Drivers of changes in profitabilty are how much more stuff they sell, are margins getting better or worse and how much expenses (cost of doing business)are increasing

    Table below shows these components of the change in profitability for each of the recent half years compared to the corresponding period the year before (ie H118 v H117 etc)

    Interesting - at least I think so

    Selling more is key but margins have both negative and positive impacts ....and the cost of doing business (more stores main driver) going up quite a lot eh. I'd watch that expense line in future.
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    The bullish case is always most compelling on the highs.

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