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  1. #5341
    Hunting for more dog food Beagle's Avatar
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    We've been living with that risk for a while now mate, (as have other retailers). This still looks seriously underpriced on its metrics and prospects to the likes of WHS and BGR.
    Last edited by Beagle; 19-11-2020 at 12:40 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  2. #5342
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    is that a hunt horn i can hear and those horses disappearing into the distance must be chasing a hound ... it appears im on foot back with the on lookers holding the reins of my horse in check...opera glasses at the ready.. handed down off course from a different time...flask in the hip pocket..

    Aus jobs up..
    Last edited by Waltzingironmansinlgescul; 19-11-2020 at 12:32 PM.

  3. #5343
    Hunting for more dog food Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waltzingironmansinlgescul View Post
    is that a hunt horn i can hear and those horses disappearing into the distance must be chasing a hound ... it appears im on foot back with the on lookers holding the reins of my horse in check...opera glasses at the ready.. handed down off course from a different time...flask in the hip pocket..

    Aus jobs up..
    Just for you mate. When Beagle's think they are on to something good they're not subtle about it , fast forward to 2:30 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjz73dv9EEI
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  4. #5344
    Senior Member pierre's Avatar
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    Another nice move upwards today to close at 650.

    It will be interesting to see where the SP lands once it's XD on December 7.

  5. #5345
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    Last edited by Waltzingironmansinlgescul; 19-11-2020 at 05:37 PM.

  6. #5346
    Hunting for more dog food Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waltzingironmansinlgescul View Post
    LOL - "Purrfect" Here's a video of keen HLG dividend hounds waiting for their massive dividend feed on 15 December. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOkYeb-vip0

    Anyway...another fresh all time high today.
    Last edited by Beagle; 19-11-2020 at 06:07 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  7. #5347
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    Today close SP $6.47 - with still 2 1/2 weeks until ex Div

    Any guesses for SP the end of this coming week ?
    ... the fine art of sniffing out debits & credits hidden under the carpet can pay dividends ...

  8. #5348
    Hunting for more dog food Beagle's Avatar
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    $6.70 is my guess for next Friday but I would hasten to add that short term share price guessing is about as reliable a process as long term weather forecasting
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  9. #5349
    One Fearsome Feline winner69's Avatar
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    Probably expect a sales update first week in December and HLG goes ex-div on the 7th ....hmm

    Maybe wise to be prepared for a double whammy to the shareprice

    Just imagine a sales update like - sales up 4% on last year (recall they were up 12% after 8 weeks) and they mention stock shortages in lead up to Christmas and mention margins under pressure from high freight costs and unfavourable exchange rates.

    That'll take 10% plus off the share price and then when it goes ex divie we could see a share price of $5.50 in a few weeks

    Always pays to look at upsides (prob limited from here) amd the downsides (what I've mentioned would not surprise me)
    Last edited by winner69; 21-11-2020 at 03:38 PM.
    “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end”

  10. #5350
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    I sat outside an Auckland Glassions today, the line to use the changing rooms was almost out the door and the cash register was going non-stop the 30 mins or so I was waiting. Just a constant line of people buying the latest summer range. Anecdote evidence doesn't mean much but it certainly makes me feel encouraged.

    I didn't see any other clothing store in the mall experience anything like it, sadly that includes Hallensteins.

  11. #5351
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    Thats good news, i walk past a Hallensteins store that i think probably needs to close. But its probably the only one that is not frequented i hope so...

    remember women are not color blind ... i have a pair of oakley shorts and they are very cool but for some reason my personal trainer just says NO!
    Last edited by Waltzingironmansinlgescul; 21-11-2020 at 04:29 PM.

  12. #5352
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waltzingironmansinlgescul View Post
    i have a pair of oakley shorts and they are very cool but for some reason my personal trainer just says NO!
    Are they skin coloured?

  13. #5353
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Probably expect a sales update first week in December and HLG goes ex-div on the 7th ....hmm

    Maybe wise to be prepared for a double whammy to the shareprice

    Just imagine a sales update like - sales up 4% on last year (recall they were up 12% after 8 weeks) and they mention stock shortages in lead up to Christmas and mention margins under pressure from high freight costs and unfavourable exchange rates.

    That'll take 10% plus off the share price and then when it goes ex divie we could see a share price of $5.50 in a few weeks

    Always pays to look at upsides (prob limited from here) amd the downsides (what I've mentioned would not surprise me)
    Unfavourable exchange rates?!

    As another poster has mentioned clothes are the easiest fmcg to ship as they condense down so well.
    Last edited by jimdog31; 21-11-2020 at 09:13 PM.

  14. #5354
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimdog31 View Post
    Unfavourable exchange rates?!

    As another poster has mentioned clothes are the easiest fmcg to ship as they condense down so well.
    One poster mentioned they had forward cover at what now are unfavourable rates

    Another poster mentioned even though clothes might condense down so well a load of cotton / denim is still pretty heavy
    “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end”

  15. #5355
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Another poster mentioned even though clothes might condense down so well a load of cotton / denim is still pretty heavy
    Even putting it through a wool press it would still be more than a M3 per tonne so for shipping it would be on size, only if airfreight probably on weight.(and yes as a freight forwarder I once used a wool press to condense some volumetric cargo)

  16. #5356
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    One poster mentioned they had forward cover at what now are unfavourable rates

    Another poster mentioned even though clothes might condense down so well a load of cotton / denim is still pretty heavy
    I admit, its not outside the realms of possibility they could use the exchange rate swing as a negative, however I think it would be a stretch for them to use that as a factor.

    Even if they had hedged at say 66c, thats roughly the same exchange rate compared to the same period in the previous year so it shouldnt be a factor.

    I can tell you that retail is most definitely not slowing down. We are up turnover wise MoM close to 150% , and im hearing the good news (still) accross multiple retail sectors.

  17. #5357
    One Fearsome Feline winner69's Avatar
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    How listed retailers going recently:

    Briscoes Homewares +12% (27/7-25/10)
    Rebel sport +19% (27/7-25/10)

    Red Sheds +8% (3/8-1/10)
    Noel Leeming +9% (3/8-1/10)
    Torpedo 7 +40% (3/8-1/10)

    Kathmandu ‘trading mixed’ (1/8-12/7)

    Hallensteins +11% (2/8-26/8) 8 weeks

    So big question what’s Hallensteins growth been 17 weeks to end of November? Retail overall been booming ..but clothing maybe still a laggard.

    Has the +11% for first 8 weeks got better for the 17 weeks ..or will it end up something like +6%.
    “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end”

  18. #5358
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    Its summer now, so the nudists wont be buying any clothing...

  19. #5359
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    How listed retailers going recently:

    Briscoes Homewares +12% (27/7-25/10)
    Rebel sport +19% (27/7-25/10)

    Red Sheds +8% (3/8-1/10)
    Noel Leeming +9% (3/8-1/10)
    Torpedo 7 +40% (3/8-1/10)

    Kathmandu ‘trading mixed’ (1/8-12/7)

    Hallensteins +11% (2/8-26/8) 8 weeks

    So big question what’s Hallensteins growth been 17 weeks to end of November? Retail overall been booming ..but clothing maybe still a laggard.

    Has the +11% for first 8 weeks got better for the 17 weeks ..or will it end up something like +6%.
    both Rebel and Torpedo7 have a high sales % in clothing ......

    I’m going with north of 11% .

    Shout you lunch if im wrong 😜

  20. #5360
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    Quote Originally Posted by Getty View Post
    Its summer now, so the nudists wont be buying any clothing...
    togs...undies...togs...undies nude....nude, you still have to get to the beach

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