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  1. #1001
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeremyALD View Post
    I hope I'm low overall Roger! I think 16 to 18 million is very conservative and just shows that this is undervalued. If they post over 20 million NPAT historically the SP would go well above $4 so I hope you're right

    Positively there's a lot of room for growth in AU too. If AU Glassons started posting NPAT similar to NZ, we'd be well into the 20s.

    In relation to e-commerce I get a bit confused here. Do they bundle this all into one result for the whole Group, or is it also put into divisional sales? For example if Hallenstein Brothers reports a flat result YOY, but e-commerce is up 7% does that mean that store sales are down and internet sales are up, or are store sales flat and internet sales up?

    It's great that e-commerce is growing, but if that's just a transition of existing store sales to online channels it doesn't particularly help if you get my drift.
    Plenty of room for interpretation either way with the e.commerce thing mate, agree its not clear. For me the key metric is growth in group sales of 10%. The group hasn't grown at anything like that rate for many many years and with better margins this year too. Future looks good and SP well underpinned by 13.4% gross divvy yield, (30 / 0.72) / 311.
    Last edited by Beagle; 09-01-2017 at 04:10 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #1002
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    I just bought a decent parcel - thanks to ST stock picking competition! I only delved into it despite my skepticism of the sector because I was searching for a fifth undervalued stock, now there are not so many GARP stocks on the NZX. I highly recommend reading the annual report. As in TNR and THL, we are well-positioned for 2017
    Last edited by DarkHorse; 09-01-2017 at 09:02 PM.

  3. #1003
    The Wolf of Sharetrader
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    (very very conservative)

    Over $5 surely

    That's what i'm looking forward to
    $4 by Christmas. That's the word on the street. You heard it here first.

    (Winner says $5 but he has been drinking MOA).

  4. #1004
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeremyALD View Post
    ...
    In relation to e-commerce I get a bit confused here. Do they bundle this all into one result for the whole Group, or is it also put into divisional sales? For example if Hallenstein Brothers reports a flat result YOY, but e-commerce is up 7% does that mean that store sales are down and internet sales are up, or are store sales flat and internet sales up?

    It's great that e-commerce is growing, but if that's just a transition of existing store sales to online channels it doesn't particularly help if you get my drift.
    good question - and yes, they try hard to muddy the waters - don't they?

    However - if you look e.g. at the chairmans presentation from the recent AGM (https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/249988.pdf) you find that he lists the $ incomes for the various segments (i.e. Hallensteins, Glassons AUS and NZ and Storm) and adding these $ values up we get already 100% of last years revenue ($224m). After these 4 segments he talks about the % increase of e-commerce (without adding a $ number). I think it is fair to assume that this is not an additional segment, but just describing sales moving from brick and mortar stores into the internet. I am afraid - no additional sales, just a different sales channel.
    ----
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  5. #1005
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nextbigthing View Post
    $4 by Christmas. That's the word on the street. You heard it here first.

    (Winner says $5 but he has been drinking MOA).
    Moa hell now - shareholder in Parrot Dog I am
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #1006
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    good question - and yes, they try hard to muddy the waters - don't they?

    However - if you look e.g. at the chairmans presentation from the recent AGM (https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/249988.pdf) you find that he lists the $ incomes for the various segments (i.e. Hallensteins, Glassons AUS and NZ and Storm) and adding these $ values up we get already 100% of last years revenue ($224m). After these 4 segments he talks about the % increase of e-commerce (without adding a $ number). I think it is fair to assume that this is not an additional segment, but just describing sales moving from brick and mortar stores into the internet. I am afraid - no additional sales, just a different sales channel.
    How most treat online sales - KMD / WHS / BRG report like this

    Better getting / keeping the sale than losing it all together ...and you never know some new sales
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #1007
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    How most treat online sales - KMD / WHS / BRG report like this

    Better getting / keeping the sale than losing it all together ...and you never know some new sales
    I take online sales to be extra sales that firms would not achieve from their stores.
    There is/are a growing number of people who only shop online.
    When sales on line are growing at nearly 25% to 30% pa and achieving between 7% and 10% of total sales we can understand just how important they are to retailers.

  8. #1008
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    I take online sales to be extra sales that firms would not achieve from their stores.
    There is/are a growing number of people who only shop online.
    When sales on line are growing at nearly 25% to 30% pa and achieving between 7% and 10% of total sales we can understand just how important they are to retailers.
    I think retailers are increasingly directing customers to their websites as well. Only yesterday my wife and I were directed to their websites by retail staff in both Mitre10 and Briscoes to buy online goods that they did not have in stock. We did.

  9. #1009
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    good question - and yes, they try hard to muddy the waters - don't they?

    However - if you look e.g. at the chairmans presentation from the recent AGM (https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/249988.pdf) you find that he lists the $ incomes for the various segments (i.e. Hallensteins, Glassons AUS and NZ and Storm) and adding these $ values up we get already 100% of last years revenue ($224m). After these 4 segments he talks about the % increase of e-commerce (without adding a $ number). I think it is fair to assume that this is not an additional segment, but just describing sales moving from brick and mortar stores into the internet. I am afraid - no additional sales, just a different sales channel.
    Thanks for doing the legwork on this BP. Another way to look at it is that their e-commerce sales growing at 24% is one of the reasons why they're currently growing their overall sales at 10% which as mentioned before is the fastest growth rate for as far back as I can find comparative data in annual reports, (from memory from research I did before Christmas) that's the best growth rate in over 10 years.
    Last edited by Beagle; 10-01-2017 at 10:23 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  10. #1010
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Retail in Australia not that good but ...

    .....Over the past year, sales of clothing, footwear and personal accessories recorded the fastest pace of growth all categories at 5.8% (ABS)

    So no reasonw why HLG Aussie storesaren't doing well
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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