HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[Beagle]

Hallensteins is already cheap as chips too. If you think a $10 tee and $30 jeans are expensive I really do worry for the poor children making these!!

In more ways than one mate. I have recalculated my expectations of profit and dividend in the year ahead and I see a minimum of $21m and 35 cps. No reason why they won't pay out that full 35 cps as dividends as forecast capex this year is less than depreciation.
35 cps as a function of the theoretical ex price $3.60 - 0.17 = $3.43 = 10.2% net or 14.2% gross yield ! With that remarkable yield and the very real prospect of SP gains it is any wonder Timothy Glasson is happy to own 20% of the company and the well respected Hickman's of Ryman fame are also large shareholders.

[winner69]

Ben Graham (or was it that guy Lynch) used charts showing the share price and what the share price would be at a certain PE. Quite cool really. 'Undervalued' when below the dotted line

Here's one for HLG using a PE of 13 (seems a good fit on a historical basis). The forecast line is based on a NPAT of $22m

Jeez more than a buck capital gain here ....more if it overshoots ...and you collect decent divies along the way. Hit 6 bucks a few years ago

Cool eh

[see weed]

I've already collected my dividend ...twice and more than enough to cover the impuation credits

Why hang around for the official one

Posted on 29/11/17....Winner, are you still in for the div? Mine are up 15k in last 3 weeks. Guna get some more today.

[Beagle]

Ben Graham (or was it that guy Lynch) used charts showing the share price and what the share price would be at a certain PE. Quite cool really. 'Undervalued' when below the dotted line

Here's one for HLG using a PE of 13 (seems a good fit on a historical basis). The forecast line is based on a NPAT of $22m

Jeez more than a buck capital gain here ....more if it overshoots ...and you collect decent divies along the way. Hit 6 bucks a few years ago

Cool eh

PE of 13 looks like a good fit but might be a bit cheap seeing as this is the second year in a row they're growing sales nicely and momentum on sales growth is building very strongly. $22m after tax on 59.65m shares gives = 36.89 cps. Maybe a PE of 16-17 isn't out of order given their strong sales growth which does give potential upside into the $6 range !

[winner69]

PE of 13 looks like a good fit but might be a bit cheap seeing as this is the second year in a row they're growing sales nicely and momentum on sales growth is building very strongly. $22m after tax on 59.65m shares gives = 36.89 cps. Maybe a PE of 16-17 isn't out of order given their strong sales growth which does give potential upside into the $6 range !

Now you are getting a bit carried away ....even though $22m npat would be about 25% up on this year.

HLG a bit cyclical though eh ....but definitely on the up part of the cycle at the monent

While the Jacinda effect might be behind the strong sales growth can’t overlook that Jacinda’s finance man says we could have a recession

[Beagle]

Maybe not carried away mate. They appear to be getting real traction with their sales and going off comments in the annual report this is partly because of expansion across the Tasman. Big market over there for further expansion...
Little known fact - Did you know that every year for the last five years they have paid out more in dividends than EPS ?
They are able to do this because capex even with refurbishing the stores to the fancy new euro style is less than depreciation.
Heck we could get as much as the 40 cents per share in dividends next year you were hinting at on the weekend ! I'm going to need a MUCH bigger dog food bowl

[winner69]

Maybe not carried away mate. They appear to be getting real traction with their sales and going off comments in the annual report this is partly because of expansion across the Tasman. Big market over there for further expansion...
Little known fact - Did you know that every year for the last five years they have paid out more in dividends than EPS ?
They are able to do this because capex even with refurbishing the stores to the fancy new euro style is less than depreciation.
Heck we could get as much as the 40 cents per share in dividends next year you were hinting at on the weekend ! I'm going to need a MUCH bigger dog food bowl

Red bit is correct but another little know fact is that in 4 of the last 5 years (and 5 out of the last 7) they have paid out more in divies than free cash flow (operating less capex)

To maintain the divies they have been raiding the honey pot which is gradually diminishing ....had $35m in it in 2010 and now only $12m odd

At least they don't borrow to pay divies (like some do)

[Beagle]

Page 7 annual report,

historical capex is ~ $6m

. Last year depreciation which is of course a non cash item was $7.3m.

We anticipate capital expenditure will return to historical level's in the new financial year.

This would suggest $1.3m extra available to be distributed to shareholders in the years ahead or about 2.2 cents per share.

[minimoke]

I think after that update some of you guys are being a bit optimistic hoping to get any more under $3.50...but one supposes you never know... but I wouldn't rule out other hounds chasing them too

P.S. Mate I sprung out of the starters gate like a startled greyhound this morning, (after reading that market update) and got a few at the open $3.45 and a few more later in the high 340's. Couldn't believe it didn't immediately gap up to over $3.50 really... right from the get go today.

I've stuck a cheeky bid in. Wonder if I"ll be a proud owner by the end of the week

[Raz]

Surprised how this really was a simple play like last year...