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  1. #1631
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    I'm forecasting hotter returns for shareholders in 2018 than Glasson's smoking hot website and I'm not just talking about the dividend yield.
    Not one I'd normally put in a ST competition, (has traditionally just been a really solid divvy yield stock) but I think I might make an exception for 2018
    P.S. Just checked my selections sent to Sylvester the Cat and yes HLG is in there.
    Last edited by Beagle; 09-12-2017 at 01:29 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #1632
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Jeez Jeremy - make $12m in H1 and $20m full year ....would mean no profit growth in H2

    You did say 'comfortably' reach $20m but I'm sure you really think it's going to be a hot higher eh

    At $22m it's an EPS of 37 cents / $24M it's 40 cents

    Just imagine next years divie ..... a whopper yield if you bought Raz'z shares for $3.40 yesterday ....but its the likely capital gain next year thats going to be well huge
    Let's not get too carried away. Last year you guys were picking 20m plus whilst I was more conservative which turned out to be about right.... I prefer to be conservative because it means I'm buying at value and don't have super high expectations. It's a very competitive market and all it takes is a hot winter to slow growth in the 2nd half.

  3. #1633
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeremyALD View Post
    Let's not get too carried away. Last year you guys were picking 20m plus whilst I was more conservative which turned out to be about right.... I prefer to be conservative because it means I'm buying at value and don't have super high expectations. It's a very competitive market and all it takes is a hot winter to slow growth in the 2nd half.
    Fair call on the first half I reckon but I think you're being very conservative on the second half especially with clearly displayed momentum for new format stores and the new stores in Australia. Looking at their dividend payment history I got to thinking on the weekend, is this the reliable "go to" stock on the NZX when one wants to increase the dividend yield of their portfolio ?
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  4. #1634
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    Apparel spending up 2.7% in November - definitely tracking for a very strong Xmas with this weather.

    https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/credit...ember-b-211012

  5. #1635
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeremyALD View Post
    Apparel spending up 2.7% in November - definitely tracking for a very strong Xmas with this weather.

    https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/credit...ember-b-211012
    Ive done my bit to help you folks with the Dec sales. 4 pairs of shorts @$20 each, down from $40.

  6. #1636
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    Ive heard they reduce the leg lengths of surplus trou and recycle them as summer shorts. Brilliant!

  7. #1637
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    And jus tto keep things in perspective: No buyers for Kimberleys https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/995...-to-find-buyer

  8. #1638
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeremyALD View Post
    Apparel spending up 2.7% in November - definitely tracking for a very strong Xmas with this weather.

    https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/credit...ember-b-211012
    And HLG were up 20% plus .....jeez that’s some market share gains. Competition must be hurting.

    You still think H2 going to be a no growth one ......need more than train crash to stop this momentum
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #1639
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    And HLG were up 20% plus .....jeez that’s some market share gains. Competition must be hurting.

    You still think H2 going to be a no growth one ......need more than train crash to stop this momentum
    Yeap 21.4% sales growth (calculated at post #1533) was for the ten week period ended 30 November so November itself with the better weather and election out of the way could have been at a higher run rate than that and dragged up the batting average. Either way quite a difference between apparel sales increase of 2.7% for the market overall and HLG's 21.4% isn't there and with the lovely summer weather looking to continue well into December it all looks very promising.
    Looking forward to another market update from the annual meeting this Wednesday.
    Last edited by Beagle; 11-12-2017 at 03:35 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  10. #1640
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Yeap 21.4% sales growth (calculated at post #1533) was for the ten week period ended 30 November so November itself with the better weather and election out of the way could have been at a higher run rate than that and dragged up the batting average. Either way quite a difference between apparel sales increase of 2.7% for the market overall and HLG's 21.4% isn't there and with the lovely summer weather looking to continue well into December it all looks very promising.
    Looking forward to another market update from the annual meeting this Wednesday.
    Remember your 21.4% for HLG is combined NZ/AU

    From all accounts retail AU is not as buoynat as NZ - stories of households reducing apend in the wake of higher power prices and general poor consumer confidence

    If thats the case NZ must really be on fire --- even greater than 21% growth

    Jacinda effect working well ..... that'll keep the momentum up until at least next winter and probably behind

    Talk ofa flat or declining H2 is so so very conservative .....and not even really a possiblity
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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