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  1. #21
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    I agree with you Lizard .. the DCF I mentioned is a worst case scenario ... I don't actually think it will get quite that bad for HLG .. maybe for other retailers / consumer discretionary ...

  2. #22
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    I'm disappointed that the Hallensteins store in Dunedin is having a 'buy get another one cheaper' sale on Hoodies.

    It can only encourage the undesirable types to stock up in their clothing of choice...
    Death will be reality, Life is just an illusion.

  3. #23
    Senior Member Toulouse - Luzern's Avatar
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    Smile Spike

    Hi
    HLG spikes $1.02...

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toulouse - Luzern View Post
    Hi
    HLG spikes $1.02...
    Someone obviously pushed the wrong button - I'm sure they meant to buy at 282, not 382. Broker should have queried.

  5. #25
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    I think you're right, Colin. But Teletext was showing 382 for much of the day and never any explanation, correction or apology. You'd think someone would have queried it before posting.

  6. #26
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    I would say Lawso that most people look at the internet prices these days.

    Teletext is pretty old skool!!

  7. #27
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    Wink

    Credit card sales show signs of movement upwards....
    Boppers beginning to buy again....
    Trendies getting backinto things .....
    Australia not doing so bad.....
    If the Ski Fields are anything to go by, then the
    younger generation are getting itchy and spending.
    HLG are onto it. & I am getting back in .
    Cheers BB

  8. #28
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    Thumbs up Hlg

    Nice rise to 340 cents
    then 10c drop Friday !!
    Good example of traders at work ?
    BB

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Boy View Post
    Nice rise to 340 cents
    then 10c drop Friday !!
    Good example of traders at work ?
    BB
    Or it could be just the thin January trade.

    Only 1,000 shares traded yesterday.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    Or it could be just the thin January trade.

    Only 1,000 shares traded yesterday.
    Yep, could be, but on a Friday ???
    Lets see next week.
    BB

  11. #31
    Adventurer Silverlight's Avatar
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    TRADING UPDATE, PROFIT GUIDANCE AND DIVIDEND DECLARATION

    The Company advises that sales for the key trading months of December and January to date have been + 10.7% on the prior year.

    Sales for the first half of the financial year from 2 August 2009 to 24 January 2010 are +6.7% on the prior year.

    Chairman of Directors Warren Bell commented “sales results in both New Zealand and Australia have been similar. We have experienced consistent demand from our customers to our offer during this key trading period, and we have been able to protect and grow our margin. Strong trading over this period has ensured our stocks are at very good levels, and we are well positioned to tackle the new winter season.”

    Net profit after tax for the full six months ended 1 February 2010 is projected to be in the range $8.1 million to $8.4 million, a 50% increase on the prior year.

    A full six month release will be provided to the NZX on March 25th 2010.

    Dividend

    The directors have declared an interim dividend of 14 cents per share, (prior year 10 cents) payable on 26th March 2010. Entitlement date is 19th March 2010. The interim dividend has been declared early to allow the company to fully utilise imputation credits at 33 cents prior to 31 March 2010.

    7 cents of the dividend will have imputation credits at 33 cents, and the balance at 30 cents. In addition a supplementary dividend of 2.4706 cents per share will be paid to shareholders who are non resident for New Zealand tax purposes.
    ~ * ~ De Peones a Reinas ~ * ~

  12. #32
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    Good update yesterday. HLG been a strong performer - makes sense if you think about it. The customer base (particularly for Glassons) is probably one that is less affected by changes in economic conditions. And since the clothes aren't built to last much beyond one season, the customers keep coming back. Plus some from higher end buyers drop down a notch. That along with more competitive supply prices being offered out of Asia.

    Longer term, clothing is one category that is more difficult for retailers to take on-line successfully. (This seems to me to be something that BGR should be worrying about).

    $3.82 not excessively cheap, but still very reasonable value for a long term hold in a company with no debt, good yield and a proven record.

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lizard View Post

    $3.82 not excessively cheap, but still very reasonable value for a long term hold in a company with no debt, good yield and a proven record.
    And very good management....

  14. #34
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    According to HLG, retail demand has fallen back to be flat during the August to November period.

    According to the local fashion critic (my 14 yr old daughter), the Glassons designs weren't up to scratch in August and are "still recovering".

  15. #35
    percy
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    Your daughter would be right on the money.!!!! Any retailer trying for turnover this Christmas will give away margin.
    Follow what your daughter and her friends are buying,your will pick up trends before any analyst!!! May cost you in pocket money,but will safeguard capital.!!!!
    Remember your daughter is your friend with inside information.!!!

  16. #36
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    Have we really not talked about HLG since 2010?

    Anyway, I thought the result today was good, even though well-predicted. The mention of continuing to sell 7% ahead of last year in the start of second half plus comments suggesting that the Directors think there is more to be squeezed from the Australian operations are both positive for future profit growth. Combined with the high cash (no debt) and growing/sustainable dividend, I am surprised this has not risen further than the $4.02 it sits at.

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lizard View Post
    Have we really not talked about HLG since 2010?

    Anyway, I thought the result today was good, even though well-predicted. The mention of continuing to sell 7% ahead of last year in the start of second half plus comments suggesting that the Directors think there is more to be squeezed from the Australian operations are both positive for future profit growth. Combined with the high cash (no debt) and growing/sustainable dividend, I am surprised this has not risen further than the $4.02 it sits at.
    Been a personal favourite for a while from fundamentals, but I know nothing about the industry.

  18. #38
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    Hi David,

    I noticed one of the major brokers started taking an interest again mid-March and wouldn't be surprised to see them give it a bit of a nudge tomorrow, depending on whether the research team decides to follow up the result with a full Research Note.

    However, given the result was well-flagged (although top end of range), it will depend on them finding the courage to believe there is still growth to be gotten at the NPAT line for 2013/2014... possibly something they'll want to take the slow and steady approach on at this point.

    Still, unless HLG change their tune, I think they will find that courage over the next 6 months.

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by David B View Post
    I try to follow a little bit of Warren Buffet's investment philosophy. And that is to invest in good businesses with a great management team that are well run. Yes HLG are in retail, but they're damn good at it. In fact they are probably the best clothing retailer in New Zealand. They know what they are doing and that is evidenced by their consistently good returns over the years, in spite of the difficult economy. In my view that performance gives them another thing that Warren Buffet likes, a competitive advantage.
    Here is my quick analysis on HLG, based on averaging the last five years worth of dividends.

    -----------

    2012F 14.5cps 17cps
    2011 14.0cps 17.0cps
    2010 14.0cps 17.0cps
    2009 10.0cps 11.0cps
    2008 10.0cps 17.0cps

    -------

    Average annual dividend per share 28.3cps.

    If we consider a dividend yield over the business cycle of 8% being fair, then this implies a fair value share price of:

    28.3c/0.08= $5.05

    Realistic? What do you think?

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 01-07-2015 at 02:52 PM. Reason: tabulated data
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  20. #40
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    That seems pretty tough to consider 2008-2012 as a full business cycle - implies that 2010-2012 (being highest dividend years) is top of the cycle earnings?

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