Looks like we're in for a real winter this year...so winter stock should be flying out the doors.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Weakening NZ$ against US$ will affect HLG's margins.
Seem to remember last weakness Noodles worked out it would cost HLG $10mil.
His comments would be interesting now.
More a case of $US strength. $US index is very high. I think management will be working hard to mitigate this.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Maybe some correlation between currency and EBITDA margin. This seems to have broken down in the last couple of years. Brokers are forecasting a 14% margins for this year. I think management will have to be at the top of their game to fight against the currency tide.
Year
NZDUSD
EBITDA Margin
Change in Currency
Change in EBITDA Margin
Notes
2006
0.649732
15.49%
2007
0.736172
17.74%
13.30%
14.53%
2008
0.714949
14.32%
-2.88%
-19.28%
2009
0.635232
11.95%
-11.15%
-16.55%
Recession
2010
0.721623
13.96%
13.60%
16.82%
2011
0.792322
14.00%
9.80%
0.29%
2012
0.810275
15.58%
2.27%
11.29%
Included insurance payout
2013
0.8203
14.79%
1.24%
-5.07%
Management Blamed late start to winter
2014
0.8306
13.06%
1.26%
-11.70%
Management admitted poor product mix
2015
0.740516
14.31%
-10.85%
9.59%
Broker forecasts
2016
0.68
-8.17%
Percy mentioned noodles analysis on how fx impacts HLG margins
That was his post from July 2015
Last edited by winner69; 24-05-2018 at 09:54 AM.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
Thank-you for the great ride the last 5 months, I have enjoyed this run but must leave you for a while as my funds are taking a break from the market.
Today's break of the 50 SMA was my signal to sell the remaining parcel I held (nothing personal, just investing to my plan).
I look forward to continuing our previous arrangement (good dividends and share price appreciation) as some stage in the future (possibly when to global markets aren't as wobbly and the chart signals another good entry)
Best,
McGinty
Interesting to revisit a stock one month later.
Upon retesting the 50 SMA twice HLG was unable to close back above it, which would have been another opportunity (signal) to sell.
Now that the $4.45 support is broken the stock could fall to next support levels at $4.30 and $4.00. It seems that the market is just repeating last year's 'Winter' sentiment which caused the price to slide 20% after going ex-div.
I would like to see the $4.00 support hold (20% from this years cum-div price)
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