Retail is funny.
Get it right and it goes your way.Fast moving lines means more room for more new stock.No old stock taking up space, and having to be cleared out.Margins are good.
HLG have the momentum.
Retail is sad.
Get it wrong and it turns to custard straight away.
And it can go from right to wrong very quickly.
many comments about the stunning increase in profits. Which they were. But a 16% increase in revenue. Whoa. To provide a point of comparison, KMD, which is performing well, said its revenues for the ~11 month period to 24 June (July year end) were up 7.7%. HLG whacked it out of the park.
Yes an extra $40m in sales could dramatically change the face of HLG.
I just said this morning that the result is probably already priced in. Looks like I was right.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the price continues to rise after today. It started to go up in the afternoon. After watching the market for the last few days I think the sellers will want more than $5.50, and the buyers will have to pay more.
There were 5 big off market trades today totaling just over half a million dollars on $1.15m turnover.
Yep, not bad, but suppose its already fully priced in. No positive surprises - result is even a wee bit below the HY expectations. I think SP more likely to drop today ... bye bye $6
The price didn't fall and as I expected the buyer, (probably that Australian institution) is happy to mop up those people who were weak holders. I don't think its bye bye to $6 either but time will tell and I'll reserve judgement until we get some commentary around the result and what their plans are for Glassons Australian expansion. Normalised profit adding back charge for storm exit of $1.7m gives ~ $29m for the year. 29 / 59.6 = 48.66 eps. $5.53 / 0.4866 = PE of just 11.4. Kathmandu is on a historical PE of 13.7 and Briscoes about 12.5. HLG is growing considerably faster than either of them. It hasn't fallen and I don't think its going to anytime soon. Prospects for growth in Australia with Glassons at least as good as prospects for growth with Kathmandu and Briscoes in my opinion.
Lower $Kiwi could be a headwind going forward.
Last edited by Beagle; 09-08-2018 at 09:37 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Been thinking about things and I think taking into account RBNZ's move yesterday and the weakness of our economy relative to our trading partners there is a real risk of material downside to the currency even from here (about 66 cents U.S.). Great company with excellent prospects that is likely to face material increasing cost pressure with the currency, (albeit mitigated by the fact that a lot of sales are in Australia which doesn't have the currency weakness situation) Its been a great ride from just under $3 about 2 years ago. Today I decided to sell half and have a free ride with the rest.
Last edited by Beagle; 10-08-2018 at 03:43 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
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