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  1. #3766
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Isn’t that what cyclicals do?
    If that's the case the Air sp should be under $2 right now given the virus thingy and all that, so why isnt it?

  2. #3767
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    Interesting ABC article on retail closures here.

    Take care holders (just saying!)

  3. #3768
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    If that's the case the Air sp should be under $2 right now given the virus thingy and all that, so why isnt it?
    Give it time.

  4. #3769
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Isn’t that what cyclicals do?
    50% fib retrace already from June19 low $4.00 to Dec 19 high $6.48. DCB or canny buyers?
    Screen Shot 2020-02-22 at 11.23.59 AM.jpg
    Daily chart, log scale

    Bloody awful screen resolution with uploaded pictures, not sure what's going on. A high resolution chart is here
    Last edited by Baa_Baa; 22-02-2020 at 11:32 AM.

  5. #3770
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    50% fib retrace already from June19 low $4.00 to Dec 19 high $6.48. DCB or canny buyers?
    Screen Shot 2020-02-22 at 11.23.59 AM.jpg
    Daily chart, log scale

    Bloody awful screen resolution with uploaded pictures, not sure what's going on. A high resolution chart is here
    So cool BaaBaa ...I love Fibonacci ...one of few TA things that mimic nature ...and we know about Nature’s Laws eh

    Talking of Fibonacci ....put a heap on him Otaki Race 2 today at 1.17pm. ..he’s got great form like winning his last 2 races ...and baabaa’s onen bet ...the stars are aligned.
    Last edited by winner69; 22-02-2020 at 11:41 AM.
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  6. #3771
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Been looking at the chart which looks very ugly. Unfortunately this company has pretty recent form for dropping a whole $1.50 in less than a month. Check out the share price action in December 2018 ! Attachment 11049

    $1.50 fall this time from recently formed (looks like a head and shoulders pattern in last six months) right shoulder at $6.00 could see it head down toward $4.50

    From a TA point of view a test of long term support at $4 is even possible
    Interesting, my rudimentary TA now targets a buying support level around $4.80 (drawing a horizontal line which closes 2 triangle formations at that level), but TA should never be used in isolation of course.

    eg. I have closed out my large hedging position on the ASX 200 after resistance broken thru at 7145 from Chinese stimulous announcement (expectation & actual responses) plus good US earnings etc. Will try again when the sh** hits the fan in US also and see whether Resistance turns into Support on Monday with ASX 200 as the irrational exhuberance rolls on...The jury is out for me on just how reliable TA is as a tool in general, except in Macro situations I would hope.
    All science is either Physics or stamp collecting - Earnest Rutherford

  7. #3772
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    Quote Originally Posted by Left field View Post
    Interesting ABC article on retail closures here.

    Take care holders (just saying!)
    Well that's the thing, at least a half a dozen iconic retailers have shut down over the last couple of years yet HLG has proven its resilence and those punters then have to buy elsewhere so good for HLG. The other factor is I wonder how many of those that have gone under have no debt like HLG rather than there just wasn't enough profit in the operation.

  8. #3773
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Isn’t that what cyclicals do?
    Anatomy of a cyclical.

    HLG Cyclical - Weekly Bars - 20 Years Data




    Bars (weeks between)


    Average

    High to High
    332
    352



    342
    Weeks
    Low to Low
    464
    386



    425
    Weeks
    L to H : H to L
    344
    118
    215
    171
    179
    205
    Weeks














    171
    Average weeks L:H H:L13 years






    3.28
    Average YearsL:H H:L

    Screen Shot 2020-02-22 at 12.49.16 PM.jpg

  9. #3774
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    50% fib retrace already from June19 low $4.00 to Dec 19 high $6.48. DCB or canny buyers?
    Screen Shot 2020-02-22 at 11.23.59 AM.jpg
    Daily chart, log scale

    Bloody awful screen resolution with uploaded pictures, not sure what's going on. A high resolution chart is here
    Thanks for posting. GET OUT volumes noted. I guess you see what you want to see in these things. I know Coutts sees the RSI indicator as deeply oversold.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  10. #3775
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Thanks for posting. GET OUT volumes noted. I guess you see what you want to see in these things. I know Coutts sees the RSI indicator as deeply oversold.
    ... and both of them might be right ;
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  11. #3776
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    What’s HLG record ....average divie 30 cents over the last 30 years or something .....or was it better than that?
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  12. #3777
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    What’s HLG record ....average divie 30 cents over the last 30 years or something .....or was it better than that?
    Yep 30.5 cents fully imputed.

  13. #3778
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Thanks for posting. GET OUT volumes noted. I guess you see what you want to see in these things. I know Coutts sees the RSI indicator as deeply oversold.
    Lol the only GET OUT for me is getting out more money to buy more and chase it down.

  14. #3779
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Lol the only GET OUT for me is getting out more money to buy more and chase it down.
    See you around $4.80...
    All science is either Physics or stamp collecting - Earnest Rutherford

  15. #3780
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Well that's the thing, at least a half a dozen iconic retailers have shut down over the last couple of years yet HLG has proven its resilence and those punters then have to buy elsewhere so good for HLG. The other factor is I wonder how many of those that have gone under have no debt like HLG rather than there just wasn't enough profit in the operation.
    I agree, HLG's strong balance sheet is in its favour. In addition HLG may well be in a position to negotiate better lease/rent deals as other retailers struggle, and let's not forget HLG's growing on-line business. So it's not 'all over rover' for HLG, just warning signals being fired.

    Baa Baa's above post on cyclical trends another consideration/warning IMHO.

    (Disc - not holding. Watching with interest.)

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