HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[macduffy]

I'll stick with "Sell your losses and keep your gains" and wait for the trend to bend.

[percy]

I'll stick with "Sell your losses and keep your gains" and wait for the trend to bend.

Best advice given on ST for a very long time.

[BlackPeter]

I'll stick with "Sell your losses and keep your gains" and wait for the trend to bend.

Best advice given on ST for a very long time.

Absolutely. The only point of contention might be to agree on the indicator for when "the trend is bent". Is it at the MA30? the MA50? the MA100? the MA 200? x% below the last peak?

And is it a good idea to buy back if you realize that this time the trend change was a false signal - which can be a very expensive strategy?

Recognizing sticky trend changes and distinguishing them from bull and bear traps in real time is as impossible as knowing the peak or the trough when it occurs.

Everybody needs to define their own signals they are comfortable with ... and just fine tune them along the way, but no set of indicators will be "always right". You only can tune them "more or less aggressive" which either means more potential risks and more potential rewards or less potential risks but as well less potential rewards.

[percy]

Absolutely. The only point of contention might be to agree on the indicator for when "the trend is bent". Is it at the MA30? the MA50? the MA100? the MA 200? x% below the last peak?

And is it a good idea to buy back if you realize that this time the trend change was a false signal - which can be a very expensive strategy?

Recognizing sticky trend changes and distinguishing them from bull and bear traps in real time is as impossible as knowing the peak or the trough when it occurs.

Everybody needs to define their own signals they are comfortable with ... and just fine tune them along the way, but no set of indicators will be "always right". You only can tune them "more or less aggressive" which either means more potential risks and more potential rewards or less potential risks but as well less potential rewards.

I usually back test moving averages,to see which one has the best record with the company I am looking at.
For long term holds I wait for a couple of weeks after the 200 day MA has been broken before deciding whether the market is wrong,or I am wrong.In the case of my two largest holdings the market has proven to be wrong,and in the case of HBL I did very well buying at $1.18 when the 200 day ma was over $1.20.

[winner69]

The Rainbow MA is best (on yahoo charts)

[Beagle]

Mid point of guidance gives 45.89 cps earnings or 48.74 cps normalized for the $1.7m storm brand exit.
Choose what PE you think is appropriate. If we use the first figure the historical PE is 13.1 at $6 and the latter 12.3.
At $7 those PE's expand to 15.25 and 14.36 respectively.
Remember that the currency has dropped a fair bit from its average level in FY18 but on the other hand growth in Australia with Glassons appears to be very good and momentum for a brand counts for a lot.

Full and fair value now ? You folks be the judge.

[sb9]

It took bit of time for price to move from $4 range to $5 mark, but then the move from $5 to $6 was pretty rapid and swift. May be $6 handle is the appropriate range for it.

[BlackPeter]

Mid point of guidance gives 45.89 cps earnings or 48.74 cps normalized for the $1.7m storm brand exit.
Choose what PE you think is appropriate. If we use the first figure the historical PE is 13.1 at $6 and the latter 12.3.
At $7 those PE's expand to 15.25 and 14.36 respectively.
Remember that the currency has dropped a fair bit from its average level in FY18 but on the other hand growth in Australia with Glassons appears to be very good and momentum for a brand counts for a lot.

Full and fair value now ? You folks be the judge.

I guess the difficulty in assessing HLG's value is - are they a cyclical close to the top of the cycle or are they now a growth company?

Based on historic numbers (backward 10 year EPS CAGR - 4.3%, backward 10 year revenue CAGR - 3.8%) are they a very modestly growing cyclical.

Obviously - things might be different this time. However - only time will tell.

Without this information there is no basis in determining whether the current PE is cheap or dear. I certainly would consider it dear for a cyclical.

[Raz]

I guess the difficulty in assessing HLG's value is - are they a cyclical close to the top of the cycle or are they now a growth company?

Based on historic numbers (backward 10 year EPS CAGR - 4.3%, backward 10 year revenue CAGR - 3.8%) are they a very modestly growing cyclical.

Obviously - things might be different this time. However - only time will tell.

Without this information there is no basis in determining whether the current PE is cheap or dear. I certainly would consider it dear for a cyclical.

True...however if you are considering selling... the liquidity has been handy of late.. given the relative thin volumes this share usually attracts the price can move rather quickly....

[Beagle]

I guess the difficulty in assessing HLG's value is - are they a cyclical close to the top of the cycle or are they now a growth company? We really need to see the commentary around the annual result and any statements about outlook to shed some light on that

Based on historic numbers (backward 10 year EPS CAGR - 4.3%, backward 10 year revenue CAGR - 3.8%) are they a very modestly growing cyclical.10 years is a long way to go back but I get it, that's what you do with cyclical's. My instinct is their new Euro format Glassons stores are really resonating with customers and that "special sauce" is a key factor going forward.

Obviously - things might be different this time. However - only time will tell.

Without this information there is no basis in determining whether the current PE is cheap or dear. I certainly would consider it dear for a cyclical.

Its a really tough one to make a call on and the shares have come a long way in the last two years