HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[tim23]

Mid point of guidance gives 45.89 cps earnings or 48.74 cps normalized for the $1.7m storm brand exit.
Choose what PE you think is appropriate. If we use the first figure the historical PE is 13.1 at $6 and the latter 12.3.
At $7 those PE's expand to 15.25 and 14.36 respectively.
Remember that the currency has dropped a fair bit from its average level in FY18 but on the other hand growth in Australia with Glassons appears to be very good and momentum for a brand counts for a lot.

Full and fair value now ? You folks be the judge.

Good assessment - still got my "free" half so despite missing some upside have a dollar each week so pretty happy with latest spike.

[sb9]

The USD cross rate is back upto 67c where it was pre OCR announcement date. That should help cement further price momentum.

[winner69]

The USD cross rate is back upto 67c where it was pre OCR announcement date. That should help cement further price momentum.

....can’t be true .....punters were saying it was going down to 62 cents or less

[sb9]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/322581

Gotta love when the big boys are in hunt....

[couta1]

....can’t be true .....punters were saying it was going down to 62 cents or less

Punters often talk a load of crap.

[Beagle]

....can’t be true .....punters were saying it was going down to 62 cents or less

Outlook for 12 months ahead, could go down to 62 cents. Emphasis added for the sake of clarification.
ANZ Bank forecast is at that level too.

But who cares ?, that Aussie fund must LOV this stock...just look what PE they pushed LOV up too when buying that...probably do the same here because they see the special sauce Glassons has with its super cool Euro format stores....unique market offer like LOV.

[sb9]

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU180...n-expected.htm

Retail buzzing....

[Maverick]

Outlook for 12 months ahead, could go down to 62 cents. Emphasis added for the sake of clarification.
ANZ Bank forecast is at that level too.

But who cares ?, that Aussie fund must LOV this stock...just look what PE they pushed LOV up too when buying that...probably do the same here because they see the special sauce Glassons has with its super cool Euro format stores....unique market offer like LOV.

i reckon ,based on the good old HLG fundamentals, the share price has risen as far as it should go. I've been a huge fan (and continue to be so) of this company but at 6 bucks it's fully priced. Yes , good growth, no debt, excellent execution etc etc ......none of that has changed. But $6 builds all that in for now.
What has accelerated the share price is the aggressive buying buy "Graher" to get us here so quickly. The feeling out there seems that they will drive the share price to high Pe multiples but that's where I disagree. they are smart and they don't overpay.
they bought 6% into LOV mid 2016 at about $3 ,then peaked their holding in early 2017 at approx $3.50. (12% holding) but since then they have steadily reduced their holdings to now of about 7% at $12 .......so while they certainly have benefited from a rapidly appreciating LOV share price , they did not cause it. In fact they were exiting all the while it was going up.
LOV are now have cash looking for a home and HLG is looking prime. But I do not think they will bring an Aussy Pe down under.
Buying HLG at this price has changed from value investing to be more speculative.

[Beagle]

Mid point of guidance gives 45.89 cps earnings or 48.74 cps normalized for the $1.7m storm brand exit.
Choose what PE you think is appropriate. If we use the first figure the historical PE is 13.1 at $6 and the latter 12.3.
At $7 those PE's expand to 15.25 and 14.36 respectively.
Remember that the currency has dropped a fair bit from its average level in FY18 but on the other hand growth in Australia with Glassons appears to be very good and momentum for a brand counts for a lot.

Full and fair value now ? You folks be the judge.

i reckon ,based on the good old HLG fundamentals, the share price has risen as far as it should go. I've been a huge fan (and continue to be so) of this company but at 6 bucks it's fully priced. Yes , good growth, no debt, excellent execution etc etc ......none of that has changed. But $6 builds all that in for now.
What has accelerated the share price is the aggressive buying buy "Graher" to get us here so quickly. The feeling out there seems that they will drive the share price to high Pe multiples but that's where I disagree. they are smart and they don't overpay.
they bought 6% into LOV mid 2016 at about $3 ,then peaked their holding in early 2017 at approx $3.50. (12% holding) but since then they have steadily reduced their holdings to now of about 7% at $12 .......so while they certainly have benefited from a rapidly appreciating LOV share price , they did not cause it. In fact they were exiting all the while it was going up.
LOV are now have cash looking for a home and HLG is looking prime. But I do not think they will bring an Aussy Pe down under.
Buying HLG at this price has changed from value investing to be more speculative.

Good post Mav. The PE numbers at $7 look too high to me so I tend to agree with you. Good history on the LOV buying, thanks for sharing.
Maybe this is the right time for people with an XXXXXXXL sized holding to have a think about things ?

[Arbroath]

I put the odds for March 31 share price as:

$7.00+ 10%
$6.00-$7.00 10%
$5.00-$6.00 30%
Below $5.00 50%

Thats why I sold - I love HLG but its overvalued here for the risks (weather, NZ$, fastish-fashion fickleness etc).