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  1. #2721
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    A fact completely overlooked by Gaynor. HLG has a stellar record as a dividend yield stock and anyone fortunate enough to follow the dog who picked the bottom a couple of years ago at $2.70 has done handsomely well with capital gains too. Quite apart from that I think they're just coming into their stride with their Glassons expansion in Australia. Plenty more growth to come over there I also think its notable that HLG are N.Z.'s oldest listed company. Plenty of companies come and go over the years...there's something I really like about long established companies.

    Gaynor said - The retailer's market value has increased from $232 million to just $337m in the past 25 years as it has struggled to make sustained progress in challenging Australasian retail market conditions.

    Market value increased at 1.5% per year over those 25 years. When you were a canny old dog and bought at 270 two years ago the market value was less than $200m - quite a lot less than 23 years prior.


    I don't know hw many zillions HLG have made in those 25 years but the accounts show they have only retained $23m of those earnings - the rest has been paid out in dividends (as yoy point out). And in that time I don't think they have gone cap in hand to shareholders asking for more cash (unlike some other companies)

    Beagles, you'll disagree (probably vehemently) but you can get away from the fact that retail is hard and HLG is a real cyclical stock.One day in the future the HLG share price will be below $3 again ....and the divie won't be anywhere near as high as it today. Dollars to donuts that will happen.

    But you being the canny 'investor' you are would have sold out over $5 (or maybe over $6) and be waiting for the $2.50 again eh.

    Though some (like the Glassons etc) will just keep holding and collecting diviidends and not even worry about the share price -- knowing that one day the greater fool will come along and pay over the odds for company

    Keep an eye on that squiggly line on the chart if the share price worries you - half cycles lull you into a false sense of security, its the full cycle that counts
    Last edited by winner69; 02-12-2018 at 07:32 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #2722
    Membaa
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    The longterm chart is frightening like a roller coaster (try the monthly log scale back to 2000), you'd need a tailored strategy for this cyclical, for example you might only own it for the dividends and you'd either ignore the capital fluctuations or accumulate the full-cycle bottoms or thereabouts if you spot them. That'd be a handsome return on investment over 25 years but it would take some stomach to ride out the down cycles' loss of capital without freaking and exiting the strategy. It does look like a top is in at the moment.

    History however is no guarantee of the future.

  3. #2723
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    The longterm chart is frightening like a roller coaster (try the monthly log scale back to 2000), you'd need a tailored strategy for this cyclical, for example you might only own it for the dividends and you'd either ignore the capital fluctuations or accumulate the full-cycle bottoms or thereabouts if you spot them. That'd be a handsome return on investment over 25 years but it would take some stomach to ride out the down cycles' loss of capital without freaking and exiting the strategy. It does look like a top is in at the moment.

    History however is no guarantee of the future.
    Cool chart eh baabaa

    Not surprisingly earnings follow much the same trend
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #2724
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    The longterm chart is frightening like a roller coaster (try the monthly log scale back to 2000), you'd need a tailored strategy for this cyclical, for example you might only own it for the dividends and you'd either ignore the capital fluctuations or accumulate the full-cycle bottoms or thereabouts if you spot them. That'd be a handsome return on investment over 25 years but it would take some stomach to ride out the down cycles' loss of capital without freaking and exiting the strategy. It does look like a top is in at the moment.

    History however is no guarantee of the future.
    Nice steady uptrend there, higher highs and higher lows .

    Surprised the TA'ers can not see it .
    om mani peme hum

  5. #2725
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    Was in the clothing trade for many years very cyclical 2 good years, 2 average years, 2 terrible years with pattern repeating. Best trading times when opening new stores and xmas. Generally profit is in the left over stock with broken sizes ranges, bad styles and unpopular colours.Pays good dividend because clothing retail is high risk stock.

    Smart money probably already sold down as there is little liquidity to exit quickly.

  6. #2726
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Sticking with my own nose for value, (a Beagle always follows his nose). I think they've finally cracked the Australian retail nut with their new Glassons euro style stores in Australia and there's a very sound case for continuing to hold. The naysayers were all over this when I was buying at $2.70 telling retail was dead ad nauseum. They were wrong then and they're wrong now.
    Last edited by Beagle; 03-12-2018 at 07:24 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #2727
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Sticking with my own nose for value, (a Beagle always follows his nose). I think they've finally cracked the Australian retail nut with their new Glassons euro style stores in Australia and there's a very sound case for continuing to hold. The naysayers were all over this when I was buying at $2.70 telling retail was dead ad nauseum. They were wrong then and they're wrong now.
    Yep looking exceptionally good in the short and maybe medium term ......

    ......but one day profits will fall and share price will be sub $3 again ..that’s the nature of cyclical businesses
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #2728
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    Quote Originally Posted by dreamcatcher View Post
    Was in the clothing trade for many years very cyclical 2 good years, 2 average years, 2 terrible years with pattern repeating. Best trading times when opening new stores and xmas. Generally profit is in the left over stock with broken sizes ranges, bad styles and unpopular colours.Pays good dividend because clothing retail is high risk stock.

    Smart money probably already sold down as there is little liquidity to exit quickly.
    Actually if you have a look at the top shareholder base no smart money has sold any and why on Earth would they? no sight of a bend at the end so hold firm.PS-I consider myself part of that smart money when it comes to this stock.
    Last edited by couta1; 03-12-2018 at 07:35 AM.

  9. #2729
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    USD cross rate now back over 69c, bodes well for this week's trading along with scrip going ex-div on 7th Dec.

    $6 here we come....

  10. #2730
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    HaHa I love the latest announcement, up 4.8% on the same period as last year yet trading conditions remain tough on both sides of the ditch.

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