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03-12-2018, 10:41 AM
#2731
4.8% up and they don't have the loss making storm brand this year so that has to be taken into account.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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03-12-2018, 10:54 AM
#2732
Originally Posted by couta1
HaHa I love the latest announcement, up 4.8% on the same period as last year yet trading conditions remain tough on both sides of the ditch.
They are doing very well in a very tough retail market.
Not easy out there.
Wise not making any projections,for Christmas and January..
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03-12-2018, 10:59 AM
#2733
Originally Posted by percy
They are doing very well in a very tough retail market.
Not easy out there.
Wise not making any projections,for Christmas and January..
Petrol prices affect discretionary retail spend and have come down materially on both sides of the Tasman in the last couple of weeks.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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03-12-2018, 11:11 AM
#2734
Originally Posted by Beagle
4.8% up and they don't have the loss making storm brand this year so that has to be taken into account.
Thats 4.8 % on top of last years increase for the same period of 15%. What a terrific update but a little caution is warranted though.
Last year they added they had improved margins and the profit would easily exceed the prior years profit. They were unusually bullish which was surprising as they aren't a very talkative bunch.
This year they haven't said either of those. In fact they said trading conditions have been "tough both sides of the Tasman." Plus I think they have a few more stores now to generate the extra sales.
So , yes a fantastic starting point , and without the handbrake of "storm" as pointed out by Beagle, but they have added caution rather than last years enthusiasm.
I`m a big fan of HLG but I`m a little nervous at these share price levels, which given todays update, in my humble opinion, seems about right for now until we hear more about the margins achieved.
Last edited by Maverick; 03-12-2018 at 11:13 AM.
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03-12-2018, 11:11 AM
#2735
Originally Posted by Beagle
Petrol prices affect discretionary retail spend and have come down materially on both sides of the Tasman in the last couple of weeks.
Agreed....However it is often your competitors getting things wrong, and their discounting that can affect you the most.
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03-12-2018, 03:48 PM
#2736
Originally Posted by winner69
Yep looking exceptionally good in the short and maybe medium term ......
......but one day profits will fall and share price will be sub $3 again ..that’s the nature of cyclical businesses
so true i see hallenstein says the going getting tough
Going gets tough for Hallenstein Glasson
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12170480
one step ahead of the herd
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03-12-2018, 05:25 PM
#2737
So 4.9% sales growth disappoints the ‘market’
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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03-12-2018, 05:36 PM
#2738
Originally Posted by winner69
So 4.9% sales growth disappoints the ‘market’
Coming on the back of very good growth in the previous two years and the exit from the loss making storm brand (reducing sales this period compared to last) I think that's more than satisfactory but I agree with Maverick's post above and my sense is in the mid $5's, it's about fair value. I know I was hoping for a little more sales growth but the reality is that high fuel prices prevailing in October and much of November have sucked a bit of wind out of the retail sector. My sense is now that those prices have reverted to more normal level's we should see some confidence coming back into consumer spending over the Christmas holiday season. Good hold for yield. Trades cum a 24 cent fully imputed dividend, (as we all know).
Last edited by Beagle; 03-12-2018 at 05:37 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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03-12-2018, 05:39 PM
#2739
Originally Posted by winner69
So 4.9% sales growth disappoints the ‘market’
I think you mean disappoints the twitchy reef fish winner, haven't seen the true market speaking on this stock since that Aussie crowd were buying up big otherwise it's just low volume/low liquidity noise, will be good sales over the next 2 months so no worries.PS-Would be very happy to see this or OCA included in the NZX50 in the not too distant future.
Last edited by couta1; 03-12-2018 at 05:43 PM.
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03-12-2018, 06:13 PM
#2740
Originally Posted by Beagle
Coming on the back of very good growth in the previous two years and the exit from the loss making storm brand (reducing sales this period compared to last) I think that's more than satisfactory......
Yes, last year’s announcement was sales up 15% so this year’s 5% is coming on the back of that good growth. Don’t understand what you getting at innssying that but whatever sales growth is slowing / moderating,
Last year’s 15% was when share price was about 340 and the excitment of that news took the share price up 25%. Doubt whether +5% will do much to the share price at this level.
Wonder what same store sales growth was ...hmmm
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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