HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[Beagle]

Are we talking about recessions or bear markets here?

No recession likely this year in NZ

Maybe both, we'll see.

[BlackPeter]

Are we talking about recessions or bear markets here?

No recession likely this year in NZ

You are right - we need to distinguish between recession and bear markets. Well, the bear has already arrived in many capital markets, and personally I don't think it will pass NZ.

Economic growth (or lack thereof) including consumer spending is a different thing, though somewhat related. People who watch their Kiwi saver accounts and house prices go down might feel less inclined to continue spending as if nothing happened. Companies with slimmer margins (like KMD, Apple and probably HLG) are likely to invest less. I am sure that economic growth will slow down this year, but it may or may not be enough to move into a recession.

[Beagle]

Official measure of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, (just posting this for the odd person that may not realize what constitutes an official recession) something that only becomes obvious well and truly after the fact what with the delay in the reserve bank declaring the GDP for two consecutive quarters. Its not officially known about until about 8 months after what has become obvious to retailers for some time. Such a backward looking thing and then there's the nuances of how GDP is calculated. GDP for the Sept quarter was just a 0.3% growth much weaker than many economists expected. December quarter GDP with its very high fuel prices may look okay as demand for fuel is very price inelastic, (consumers had to spend more, on the plastic anyone ?), but the underlying effect of higher fuel prices was to sap consumer confidence.

Pretty clear that consumer and business confidence is very weak and we were lucky on the NZX to escape the bear (viewed on an annual basis) last year. Dig deeper though and I think there's a good case to be made for saying the bear arrived here in October 2018 and has been busy clawing most people's portfolio's since then. Momentum in HLG's sales clearly was lost as the latter part of 2018 played itself out. Risk for retailers other than consumer staples looks to be to the downside to me.

Take care to avoid the worst of the bear.

[winner69]

You are right - we need to distinguish between recession and bear markets. Well, the bear has already arrived in many capital markets, and personally I don't think it will pass NZ.

Economic growth (or lack thereof) including consumer spending is a different thing, though somewhat related. People who watch their Kiwi saver accounts and house prices go down might feel less inclined to continue spending as if nothing happened. Companies with slimmer margins (like KMD, Apple and probably HLG) are likely to invest less. I am sure that economic growth will slow down this year, but it may or may not be enough to move into a recession.

Our mate Orr will make sure we’ll be OK in the short/medium term....yeah right .....until he realises his dilly dallying around is bound to cause real grief.

Reckon 2020 will be the hard yeah

[percy]

Our mate Orr will make sure we’ll be OK in the short/medium term....yeah right .....until he realises his dilly dallying around is bound to cause real grief.

Reckon 2020 will be the hard yeah

I think it would pay to get a long way through 2019 before you made a call on 2020.
Lets face it, it only took a day for your's and Beagle's KMD call to be proved wrong....lol.

[Beagle]

I think it would pay to get a long way through 2019 before you made a call on 2020.
Lets face it, it only took a day for your's and Beagle's KMD call to be proved wrong....lol.

Better to be wrong for a day than to be wrong for years isn't it !

[percy]

Best not being wrong at all...!!.
But being proved wrong in just a day must be some sort of record,and not a full moon either..!!..lol.
Buffett's record is 6 out of 10.
And he is an investor though. !

[Beagle]

Best not being wrong at all...!!.Completely unrealistic to think you'll never make an investment mistake and there is widespread surprise and disappointment at KMD's most surprising market update
But being proved wrong in just a day must be some sort of record,and not a full moon either..!!..lol. Quickest entry and exit I can recall ever too but I'd rather take a quick and very small loss on a very small opening position (just 1.2% of my listed portfolio) than keep adding for years in a major way to a losing one like TRA like some people have done, all the while talking up its prospects. Nobody had time to follow the dog on KMD because I bought at the close on 31 December and sold on the open the next business day so nobody lost money following me on that one
Buffett's record is 6 out of 10.Well I'm feeling really chuffed with my record then
And he is an investor though. !

There are many investment approaches. Buy and hold forever is not working especially well at the moment. Buffet lost $3.5 billion on Apple in just one day on Wall Street today. Interestingly according to CNBC not one single professional analyst called the major correction in Apple in recent months. I guess being wrong now and again is very much "on trend" at present

[percy]

Yes many ways to skin a cat,and we all should remember many investors have done very well doing it "their way" including Warren Buffett.
TRA remains a high conviction stock for me.My third largest holding,behind HGH and one other..

[peat]

Buy and hold forever is not working especially well at the moment.

Of course buy and hold is never meant to be evaluated on the 'moment'

But re KMD I tend to think that with trading a quick failure is an acceptable outcome, if not a preferred one. Trading requires playing the percentages and following the parameters on the belief that the odds will pan out in the positive.