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  1. #41
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    In normal times ...YES !
    But these arn't normal times.
    If Europe goes further into the brown stuff then NZ and HLG
    will follow.
    They are far to well managed to go under, but their div could suffer.
    Oz is going through a bad patch at the moment and this might impact.
    So your Q. 28.3c/0.08= $5.05.
    Should be, but wont get there.
    $4.50 tops.... I recon
    BB

  2. #42
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    Just rang a friend
    Ski season has just started and already a lot of discounting.
    BB

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lizard View Post
    That seems pretty tough to consider 2008-2012 as a full business cycle - implies that 2010-2012 (being highest dividend years) is top of the cycle earnings?
    I didn't plan it that way but you are right Lizard. The method does assume 2010-2012 is the top of the business cycle.
    I picked 2008-2012 as encompassing all of the years since the GFC and hence the fairly reflecting 'new' retail environment.

    In a nutshell, the method I have used assumes a 'grand plan static retail sales universe' in which NZ retailers battle the vagaries of the business cycle.

    Given the long term performance of HLG, quite good in NZ, and what appears to be some success in Australia, this method is possibly pessimistic on the medium term prospects of HLG. Perhaps you might think of $5.05 as a 'lower bound' of fair value?

    Countering that is the 'middle market', 'discretionary' and 'fashion edge' to the HLG business. To my way of thinking those three factors should imply a higher yield rate, maybe 9%, not the 8% I was assuming with my similar analysis on the Warehouse? I guess I am saying that in tough times I can see the WINZ office handing out Warehouse vouchers, but Glasson's vouchers? Probably not.

    In summary, maybe I should bump up my expected yield by one point but then reduce it again by one point to account for the Australian growth. That brings me back to where I started: an 8% yield and a $5.05 valuation. All said from the point of view of the 'income investor' of course.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 27-06-2012 at 04:15 PM.
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Boy View Post
    Just rang a friend
    Ski season has just started and already a lot of discounting.
    BB
    Do HLG do ski gear?

    SNOOPY
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Do HLG do ski gear?

    SNOOPY
    Yep
    Havent heard how well they did in selling their summer stock.
    But no doubt they will have their winter stock on hand now
    BB

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Do HLG do ski gear?
    I wouldn't have though Skiers were HGL target market.

    Interesting to see the valuation coming in above share price, compared to the likes of WHS (below) and RBD (about right). Apart from that one drop in 2009, they are fairly safe. From memory they have a very conservative balance sheet (ie. low or no debt) or have they done something about that now?
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  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by CJ View Post
    I wouldn't have though Skiers were HGL target market.

    ?
    No not as such... I might have misslead in previous post sorry
    They do SKi Gear in the "Scott Base range"
    This does not include Goggles, Boots, Pants.etc
    But does include Jackets, underlay's, socks etc...
    BB

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Boy View Post
    No not as such... I might have misslead in previous post sorry
    They do SKi Gear in the "Scott Base range"
    This does not include Goggles, Boots, Pants.etc
    But does include Jackets, underlay's, socks etc...
    BB
    My point is Skier are usually "rick pricks" to borrow Labour's term who wouldn't be seen dead in Hallenstien clothing. At least the Auckland ones who drive down to the Whakapapa in their big 4WD and BMW are.
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  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by CJ View Post
    My point is Skier are usually "rick pricks" to borrow Labour's term who wouldn't be seen dead in Hallenstien clothing. At least the Auckland ones who drive down to the Whakapapa in their big 4WD and BMW are.
    Right...
    I dont think HLG target them "Rich Pricks" very much at all, anytime.
    they go for the young rising set, with more of the discreationary dosh.
    Their niffty short add's on TV etc dont annoy or yell. (Very effective.)
    They are not aimed at the RP's. We notice (in Q.town) that these "RP's"
    are generally just "P's" or Would be's if they Could be's (as we call them)
    and they have no real dosh. Just a lot of show, wind and trouble.
    I have just returned from Downtown Q,town. HLG had a nice display of
    what I would call After Skiing Attire. the sort of stuff you would wear
    when roaming the town at night etc. Not expensive at all.
    And the Shop were,nt empty !! at all.
    I,m soon off to Coronet Peak after lunch (in my 4 Year old Ski Gear).
    The day, the snow, just great. No crowd, no wind, No "rp's" yet !!
    A tip 4 u CJ.....
    Never, Never trust TV1 or TV3 weather reports or forecasts for the Lakes District.
    cheers BB

  10. #50
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    Big Rise so far today - up 20c and thru the last resistance of around 4.60 on slighlty above average recent volume- to think I was keeping a close eye on them thinking that the price was heading down again!

  11. #51
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    Couldn't be insiders at play could it, off course not!
    Thought I read Aus retail overall was still not going that well, maybe they are, here and there.

  12. #52
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    Understand the needs of your customers and a lot of things right and the rewards will come you way ......well done HLG in spite of a mounted market so they say

    Be interesting to compare with the comments PPG make tomorrow

  13. #53
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    I'm not complaining, up another 9 cents so far today
    But yes will be interesting to compare

  14. #54
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    Well done HLG.A great result.

  15. #55
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    The Directors advise that the unaudited net profit after ta x for the
    six months ended 1 February 2013 was $10.371 million, an increase
    of 14.9 % over the prior corresponding period ($9.028 million).
    Total comprehensive income for the period after fair value
    adjustments was $10.339 million ($9.764 million). Group sales
    for the 6 months ended 1 February 2013 were $115.73 million,
    an increase of 6.6% over the prior year ($108.57 million).

  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by moosie_900 View Post
    WOW
    Indeed!!!!


  17. #57
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    Just taken the plunge now they issued the statement. Price dropped by 8.22% and now gone to 6% drop. Looks like a bit of a buy on the rise.

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by moosie_900 View Post
    WOW
    That was a WOW for the 15% NPAT growth for H1 this year

    What do we say when H2 is going to be 30% down

    Things mudt be getting tough again in retail

  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    That was a WOW for the 15% NPAT growth for H1 this year

    What do we say when H2 is going to be 30% down

    Things mudt be getting tough again in retail
    NO surprises there>!!!!!!! Very tough !!! The high overheads remain.!
    Last edited by percy; 15-06-2013 at 05:29 PM.

  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown View Post
    If its tough for Hallensteins Glassons, then imagine what its like for mid ranked Pumpkin Patch and minnow Postie Plus...
    The word "impossible" comes to mind.!!!

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