Noodles - a very strong correlation between Gross Margin % and currency (using the rates in your table). Correlation about .85 going back to 2005
Better to use this as the margin to assess impact rather than EBITA I think
Obviously forex does have a strong influence over margins. The correlation suggests that product cost increases are not fully recovered (lack of pricing power?). One might have expected the odd heavy discounting periods might have brought some variability into the results but the compelling story I'd lower NZD leads to lower gross margins.
If x-rate is .68 in 2016 the correlation would suggest a Gross margin of around 52%/53% - which is 6%/7% points less than 2014 actual (we don't have 2015 yet do we?)
so 7% points Gross Margin is $15m - hope management have things under control
Is any of this mitigated in expenses?
my numbers give this scatter chart .... sad picture if history anything to go by
Almost as sad as th rugby - I gave up watching ..... Wellington / Hurricanes still losers (too many mistakes)
Some talk of nzdusd at 40 cents. Was there in 2001 so not impossible
Jeez, from that bull**** above HLG gross margin would be 40% at best but they would really have to bump up rices to mitigate the damage. Even 50% gm impacts margin negatively $20m
That $50 sweat will cost punters $80 odd or so next year if the 40 cents happens and HLG try to mitigate the damage ..hmm
Just as well its bull**** eh
Last edited by winner69; 18-07-2015 at 08:58 PM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Was in store today and the normal 2 business shirt deal for $60 has been tweaked to $69 still a good deal but an interesting move.
But wait....there's more.....................
Go online and sign up to receive updates and you get 20% off.
Cancel that order>!
mytuxedo have 3 for $70.
Hang on...
Modern tailor have a special offer.$19.95..
Oh dear.
The 2 for $25 flannel shirts Postie have may be nice and warm,but I may wait until they are 3 for $10.
Then again I might pass on them.!
But wait....there's more.....................
Go online and sign up to receive updates and you get 20% off.
Cancel that order>!
mytuxedo have 3 for $70.
Hang on...
Modern tailor have a special offer.$19.95..
Oh dear.
The 2 for $25 flannel shirts Postie have may be nice and warm,but I may wait until they are 3 for $10.
Then again I might pass on them.!
C'mon guys, I thought you were all smart men of the world
Good in that they might be preempting real margin pressure and mitigating some of the damage earlier than later
Or they might already be experiencing higher costs
Funny you say that Winner as I popped into my local Noel Leeming store late yesterday afternoon to have a look at maybe updating my not so old T.V. to some flasher newer shinier and clearer model before the price goes crazy with the lower Kiwi dollar but I reckon the heavy discounting has already stopped and retailers already know replacement stock will be more expensive so the best deals are already behind us. They seemed disinclined to negotiate much on the fancy 65 inch curved Samsung I liked...have to make do with my old 50 inch...life is harsh LOL.
Gee, 50 inch TV's are a dime a dozen now, well under $1,000 for a decent model but $5,500 for a top of the line Ultra high def Samsung 65...I think I'll make do with moving the Laziboy recliners a little closer
Originally Posted by TheHunter
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