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09-04-2019, 11:04 AM
#3241
Originally Posted by couta1
I don't invest based on currency but rather proven long term fundamentals, the growth potential of the company, it's proven long term dividend payment history and the quality of it's top 20 shareholders.
Well you are in for a very nastie surprise should the NZ $ fall as projected.
Last edited by percy; 09-04-2019 at 11:05 AM.
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09-04-2019, 11:52 AM
#3242
Originally Posted by percy
I think I read the NZ $ is expected to weaken.
I agree with this in respect of the Aussie dollar. Here we are heading for 1.09 Aud/NZD imo.
But vs USD I would expect it to strengthen to as much as .71 or .72 (with a daily chart perspective so , say a 3-6 month time frame) before a serious bear reasserts itself.
USD fell sharply against CAD last night and thats a commodity currency as we are.
I don't deny that forecasting currencies is risky and prone to failure though lol
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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09-04-2019, 12:09 PM
#3243
"Kiwibank economists say there's a 40% chance the Reserve Bank might have to continue cutting interest rates next year,while they see the NZ $ possibly dropping to US 50 cents."
Article was written on 3rd Apri; by David Hargreaves.
Last edited by percy; 09-04-2019 at 12:11 PM.
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09-04-2019, 02:20 PM
#3244
Originally Posted by peat
I agree with this in respect of the Aussie dollar. Here we are heading for 1.09 Aud/NZD imo.
Isn’t that good for HLG?
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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09-04-2019, 02:33 PM
#3245
Member
Originally Posted by winner69
Isn’t that good for HLG?
Weaker NZD against AUD should be always good for HLG.... correct me if I am wrong.
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09-04-2019, 02:48 PM
#3246
Originally Posted by pg0220
Weaker NZD against AUD should be always good for HLG.... correct me if I am wrong.
Insofar as profits in AUD would translate into higher NZD amounts, yes. Presumably, HLG buys mostly in USD and doesn't buy any meaningful volumes of stock priced in AUD.
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09-04-2019, 03:01 PM
#3247
Originally Posted by percy
"Kiwibank economists say there's a 40% chance the Reserve Bank might have to continue cutting interest rates next year,while they see the NZ $ possibly dropping to US 50 cents."
Article was written on 3rd Apri; by David Hargreaves.
What do the BNZ, ANZ, Westpac and other economists say about the long term prognosis ? Probably a very wide variance between them and all about as reliable as asking today what the weather forecast is going to be for 9 April 2020 lol
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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09-04-2019, 03:13 PM
#3248
It is what The Reserve Bank of NZ does that matters.
They lower interest rates, then Kiwibank economists may be proved correct.
A great deal depends on where you see interest rates.
I now have a very large position in a Kiwi exporter,thereby remaining "well positioned."
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09-04-2019, 03:14 PM
#3249
Originally Posted by Beagle
What do the BNZ, ANZ, Westpac and other economists say about the long term prognosis ? Probably a very wide variance between them and all about as reliable as asking today what the weather forecast is going to be for 9 April 2020 lol
I'm not concerned about all this guess work, HLG and ATM have been my best performing stocks by the length of a milk tanker wearing a bikini, all the others have been dogs by comparison.
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09-04-2019, 03:18 PM
#3250
Originally Posted by couta1
I'm not concerned about all this guess work, HLG and ATM have been my best performing stocks by the length of a milk tanker wearing a bikini, all the others have been dogs by comparison.
I would think holding ATM, would give you a good currency hedge against your HLG holding,meaning you also remain "well positioned."
An exporter and an importer.
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