HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[RTM]

Barked nice and loud and clearly about this one in August 2016 at $2.70 and some of my mates are very pleased they listened against a "storm" of negativity that the tsunami of overseas retailers arriving were going to destroy the NZ retail scene for HLG. Very comfortable indeed with my 5.7% portfolio allocation.
The yield at $2.70 was 15% gross so its been rewarding in more ways than one ! The irony is I only ever bought it for the yield and never dreamed it would more than double in price in three years. 10.3% Gross yield at $5.95 for this extremely well managed company makes it a good hold with interest rates at 100 year lows.

Sounds great...especially the 5.7%
Tick !

[couta1]

Sounds great...especially the 5.7%
Tick !

I like 33% myself, same as the top tax rate so must be good. Lol

[RTM]

I like 33% myself, same as the top tax rate so must be good. Lol

Not for the faint hearted, that's for sure.
You will have done very well. Excellent.
Cheers, RTM

[peat]

https://www.anz.co.nz/content/dam/an...k-20190930.pdf

Certainly looks dismal
which I guess supports my stance to be slightly underweight in equities at present.
Though not HLG. (14.2%)

[Beagle]

Market been kind to HLG last few years ...even the last few months

Recession seems inevitable now ...not that good ...that’ll test their resilience

https://www.anz.co.nz/content/dam/an...k-20190930.pdf

Thankfully as discussed before, young people buying heaps of clothes at HLG are significantly more optimistic than older people (who as business owners) are probably those filling out these survey's and us other older buggers taking an interest in reading them. But I do seem to recall some retired chap on here who reckoned these survey's were a crock anyway

[winner69]

Just as well HLG are resilient .....and you never know it might provide further opportunities for them

'Retail apocalypse' claims another scalp
https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...30-p52w72.html

[Baa_Baa]

Just as well HLG are resilient .....and you never know it might provide further opportunities for them

'Retail apocalypse' claims another scalp
https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...30-p52w72.html

Not sure that's really relevant but Hallensteins have had some notable retreats from Aus since their entry 2003, shifting with the ebb and flow towards womens fashion. https://www.nzabs.org.nz/hallenstein...rom-australia/
They seem to be doing ok at this stage but obviously a troublesome market to break into.

For me it's the chart, I won't bore you with posting it as anyone can see HLG is at the top of a very strong repetitive cyclical pattern over a very long time period. Great if you're on the upside of capital growth while earning outperformance dividends, but depressing if you're caught on the downside SP capital trends even with the dividends. No worries though if you never sell and don't give a toss about what the SP is doing.

Maybe I should post the chart? It's very toppy on past performance. Notwithstanding the 'long hold ignore everything' believer investment strategy.

[winner69]

I think the stated 7% sales increase in first few weeks just a random spike over a short time frame. Expect future updates to be a bit gloomy

The more realistic business outlook report is the QSBO. Real companies respond rather than ANZ small business customers.

Out today had this - Retailers are also more downbeat in the face of weaker demand. Profitability in the retail sector is at the weakest level since September 2009, as retailers struggle to pass on rising costs by raising prices.

The numbers in actual report quite depressing
https://nzier.org.nz/media/nziers-qs...n-october-2019

[peat]

For me it's the chart, I won't bore you with posting it as anyone can see HLG is at the top of a very strong repetitive cyclical pattern over a very long time period.

people can see what ever they want.
I see it finding some resistance at a previous high but looking so bullish all this year that after some wobbling around at this level for a while who knows it might smash through that onto all time new highs !

[Beagle]

I think the stated 7% sales increase in first few weeks just a random spike over a short time frame. Expect future updates to be a bit gloomy

Group sales were $287.55 million, an increase of 3.36% over the corresponding period last year ($278.20 million)
The first eight weeks of the new financial year have seen Group sales grow +7.23% on the prior year

Extracts from annual result above

Lets just ignore that its more than a few weeks, (actually 8 weeks) and that the rate of increase is on top of last years increase and at more than double the growth rate.
I get it you've sold and are trying to talk it down now but you're going to have to do better than that puny effort