HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[Beagle]

You were completely nuts ...you didn’t buy enough

But maybe there was a risk that all these global brands were going to wipe them out.

I did had a solid go at it at $2.70 relative to the size of my share portfolio back in August 2016. Was just over 10% portfolio allocation at the time, (from memory).
These days I am reluctant to have 10%+ positions...getting more conservative as I get older eh...not necessarily always a good thing...

[couta1]

I did had a solid go at it at $2.70 relative to the size of my share portfolio back in August 2016. Was just over 10% portfolio allocation at the time, (from memory).
These days I am reluctant to have 10%+ positions...getting more conservative as I get older eh...not necessarily always a good thing...

Trouble is Beagle you didnt staunch it out and hold your $2.70 lot on top of not having enough but you've stepped upto the plate recently with your Barra holding so not too conservative there.

[BWH]

Who knows ... just imagine the unthinkable happens, Tiwai point closes and all the poor Southland workers (if unemployed) can't afford anymore to buy all these smart Hallenstein Brothers suits ; Might make a dent into the online sales ... or do they have a shop in Invercargill?

Yes there's a shop in Invercargill. Been there a long time!

[winner69]

Consumer confidence pretty good at moment ....good for Hallensteins and Glassons in lead up to Xmas

Consumers were feeling more confident in October, with their perception of their current situation the best it has been since 2007.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/9...in-octoberhtml

[BlackPeter]

Yes there's a shop in Invercargill. Been there a long time!

Good on them. Just demonstrating here my lack of knowledge of the deep South. Te Anau and Dunedin have been so far the most Southern towns I've been in ...

[Beagle]

Consumer confidence pretty good at moment ....good for Hallensteins and Glassons in lead up to Xmas

Consumers were feeling more confident in October, with their perception of their current situation the best it has been since 2007.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/9...in-octoberhtml

Wow, that's quite surprising.

[winner69]

ABS Retail Sales data for September month - clothing sector +3.5% on same month last year.

With share gains Glassons growth will be much greater ...that’s good

Beagle - the papers and bank economist reports you read will be full of gloom and doom. Like the Westpac one which said -

The September retail report disappointed in every respect. Monthly sales showed another weak gain, up just 0.2%, and real retail sales contracted 0.1% in the quarter to be down –0.2%yr, the first annual contraction since the early 1990s recession. .....,..and interest rate cuts, tax cuts and other fiscal stimulus not working.

[Maverick]

Just to offer an alternative perspective to the current positivity on HLG , specifically the share price, I've just fully sold out.
Yes, it has and is a great company, run well, high div's in a low interest environment,long record of profits, potential growth in Aussy, etc etc.... but the share price is now maxed out IMO.
The ratio of 6 monthly NPAT /share price is at the same level last seen in CY2013.HLG was then on a roll of increasing profits but unexpectedly reported a much lesser 6 monthly result and the share price was then walloped. That ratio has been substantially (and consistent) at a much lower level for seven years since then and now.
Looking at what happened back in 2013, the share price had risen at a similar rate as now to about $5.70 from About $3.50 and within 6 months of that record it was back at about $3.00.
I've said before I don't care for share price charting but I really do care about ratios. I'm just saying that market expectations that are now baked into the share price are at historically high levels, and HLG have significantly disappointed the market from these levels before.
I am a value investor and I think the value here has been maximised, now we are seeing growth being added to the equation to sustain this share price,which IMO is dangerous in the rag trade.

[Beagle]

Retail sector comparison
Historical PE
BGR 13.15
KMD 12.83
WHS 14.96
HLG 12.83
Average 13.44
I note HGH have a significantly higher percentage of their total sales 15%, online than any of the others.
Sales growth year to date in FY20 is over 7% and they are executing sales growth in Australia with Glasson's extremely well.

I remain very comfortable with HLG's metrics and think its one of the cheapest and most misunderstood growth stocks on the NZX.
No analysis of HLG's current metrics would be accurate without considering it currently trades cum a large 24 cent fully imputed dividend which goes ex in the next few weeks. Ex Dividend at $6.00 the historical PE is just 12.34 making it the cheapest stock in the retail sector in N.Z. by quite some margin but I would argue the one with the most growth potential and the best gross yield.

[couta1]

Just to offer an alternative perspective to the current positivity on HLG , specifically the share price, I've just fully sold out.
Yes, it has and is a great company, run well, high div's in a low interest environment,long record of profits, potential growth in Aussy, etc etc.... but the share price is now maxed out IMO.
The ratio of 6 monthly NPAT /share price is at the same level last seen in CY2013.HLG was then on a roll of increasing profits but unexpectedly reported a much lesser 6 monthly result and the share price was then walloped. That ratio has been substantially (and consistent) at a much lower level for seven years since then and now.
Looking at what happened back in 2013, the share price had risen at a similar rate as now to about $5.70 from About $3.50 and within 6 months of that record it was back at about $3.00.
I've said before I don't care for share price charting but I really do care about ratios. I'm just saying that market expectations that are now baked into the share price are at historically high levels, and HLG have significantly disappointed the market from these levels before.
I am a value investor and I think the value here has been maximised, now we are seeing growth being added to the equation to sustain this share price,which IMO is dangerous in the rag trade.

No bend in the end at this point in time so stay with the smart money.