No bend in the end at this point in time so stay with the smart money.
Actually - SP approaching a past ATH $6.35 at 31/8/18. The people who bought at that stage into the hype will hope it will keep climbing.
Personally not so sure what the "smart" money will do (the money I know is not smart, though useful), but I'd say the jury is still out whether it is smart to keep holding.
I agree with Maverick that the downside potential from here looks much larger than the potential for future gains.
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
Actually - SP approaching a past ATH $6.35 at 31/8/18. The people who bought at that stage into the hype will hope it will keep climbing.
Personally not so sure what the "smart" money will do (the money I know is not smart, though useful), but I'd say the jury is still out whether it is smart to keep holding.
I agree with Maverick that the downside potential from here looks much larger than the potential for future gains.
Well you'd better convince the likes of Glasson/Hickman/ACC to mention a few to sell their smart money then. Lol
No doubt that HLG is expensive but then, so is the whole market. Past SP movements need to be tempered by consideration of today's low interest rates and comparative yields. I'm staying with HLG for the income, at this stage.
The previous all time high was rather an artificial one being driven by that Aussie speculator who didn’t hang around for long and then sold out (probably at a big loss)
Good though, they drove share price down to $4 and gave Couts and others opportunity to make even more dosh.
At least today the market is more sincere - no signs of speculators.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
What MAV was saying about F13 shown in chart below
Must say that currently HLG share price doesn’t have ‘high expectations baked’ into it. Share price generally has performed in line with earnings.
Mav and BP are entitled to think that earnings will decline from this point in time.
Another point it’s a yield market these days. At the F13 high the OCR was 2.5% and it’s now 1.0% and heading lower
Who knows - HLG could be $8 next year or it could be $4
That's a mighty fine graph there Winner, I presume you made that yourself, well done and thanks for sharing.
The graphs I've made are in 6 monthly NPAT data points, that's where it gets interesting. The first 6 months NPAT of'19 is higher than the second half so splitting the last set of data on your chart ( the blue line) this way would indicate a divergence which annual reporting doesn't show. Then it looks like 'high expectations' to me.
Just for the record, Im not saying their earnings WILL go down but there is a real risk they might. And as stated I like owning good value shares and HLG is now outside that band IMO and into growth valuations, which they just MIGHT do.
HLG has been extremely good to me and I would love to buy them back some day.
Im sure the guys buying back in 2013 where no less smart than people today so I don't really see why we are "safe" this time around.
Benchmark 10 year risk free rate is a lot lower, (more than 2% lower) than it was 2-3 years ago, which all other things being equal accords a PE of 2 more than what was applicable earlier. Fair PE for a company with zero growth is 11 (Ben Graham's 8.5 was with a 4% 10 year Govt stock rate, not a 1.5% rate).
HLG with a historical PE of about 12.4 (priced ex divvy at $6.00) is cheap compared to its retail peers as I have already demonstrated, executing better than most (probably all in my opinion) and very cheap compared to the forward market PE average said to be about 29. Quite aside from that holders are compensated very handsomely with a 10% annual yield.
I think its clear Glassons in Australia is a brand that garnering a genuine following amongst Australian women and the company has attained critical mass over there and has superb growth prospects, (market is 6 times the size over there and sales are still slightly below N.Z.)
I think some people understand the life cycle of a brand and how its built and developed over time and how momentum builds with word of mouth among women who (lets face it) are often far better with yabbering with their friends than guys are. I guess you either believe they can continue to grow their market share in Australia or you don't. (I do).
One is not paying much of a premium at all compared to a no growth company for a company that clearly is growing. Naysayers on this stock have always been in very plentiful supply and not always anywhere near as polite as the current ones. I am happy to continue to hold what I believe is an exceptionally well managed company trading on compelling metrics, with excellent prospects and a very rewarding yield.
Last edited by Beagle; 05-11-2019 at 03:38 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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Originally Posted by couta1
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